ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
I wonder if they will issue hurricane warnings for Mainland Portugal? Is hurricane warning available for them?
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
supercane4867 wrote:I wonder if they will issue hurricane warnings for Mainland Portugal? Is hurricane warning available for them?
warnings are up to Portugal's weather service.
I think there was a similar discussion last year with Ophelia, there the Met Office in Ireland took care of it, even though it wasn't tropical when it hit Ireland.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
terstorm1012 wrote:supercane4867 wrote:I wonder if they will issue hurricane warnings for Mainland Portugal? Is hurricane warning available for them?
warnings are up to Portugal's weather service.
I think there was a similar discussion last year with Ophelia, there the Met Office in Ireland took care of it, even though it wasn't tropical when it hit Ireland.
Per the latest discussion, NHC discussed with Spain and Portugal today about procedures. Decision was made to use local products and not NHC tropical products, although it was considered. Although by now we would be at the point where a Hurricane Warning would be needed (i.e. less than 36 hours from impact).
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
5:00 PM AST Fri Oct 12
Location: 33.9°N 24.1°W
Moving: ENE at 35 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph
INIT 12/2100Z 33.9N 24.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 35.6N 18.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 38.0N 12.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 14/0600Z 40.6N 6.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND
48H 14/1800Z 43.0N 2.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND
72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Location: 33.9°N 24.1°W
Moving: ENE at 35 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph
INIT 12/2100Z 33.9N 24.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 35.6N 18.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 38.0N 12.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 14/0600Z 40.6N 6.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND
48H 14/1800Z 43.0N 2.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND
72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
Wow, that was a quick change in track forecast. Does the sparseness of data in that region contribute to more uncertainty in the track?
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
Would Portugal get any storm surge, or is the coastline too steep?
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
Radar, for later:
Portugal:
https://www.ipma.pt/en/otempo/obs.radar/
Spain:
http://www.aemet.es/es/eltiempo/observacion/radar
Portugal:
https://www.ipma.pt/en/otempo/obs.radar/
Spain:
http://www.aemet.es/es/eltiempo/observacion/radar
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
BYG Jacob wrote:Would Portugal get any storm surge, or is the coastline too steep?
Lisbon Harbor, at the mouth of the River Tagus, may be a trouble spot if it is moving east/northeast at the time. It's a triangular shaped harbor on a river delta.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
If tropical warnings were issued, here is how I would apply them using NHC standards:
Hurricane Watch
* Carvoeira to Comporta, including the Tagus Delta
Tropical Storm Warning
* Northern border of Portugal-Spain to Huelva (entire Portuguese coast, small part of Spanish coast)
Looking at the probabilities on the NHC site, the coastal probability for hurricane conditions peaks at about 20% near Lisbon. That is too low to warrant a Hurricane Warning, but is worth mentioning.
If tropical warnings were issued, here is how I would apply them using NHC standards:
Hurricane Watch
* Carvoeira to Comporta, including the Tagus Delta
Tropical Storm Warning
* Northern border of Portugal-Spain to Huelva (entire Portuguese coast, small part of Spanish coast)
Looking at the probabilities on the NHC site, the coastal probability for hurricane conditions peaks at about 20% near Lisbon. That is too low to warrant a Hurricane Warning, but is worth mentioning.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
So I take it she got picked up by whatever it was that they weren't sure of if she was or wasn't gonna get picked up by. If she wouldn't of been picked up she would of turned South and then West.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
Leslie was the new Nadine 2012.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
Goodbye Leslie.... The end is near.... I loved you so much Leslie.....
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Not an meteorologist! Just someone who is interested in weather. Please refer to the NHC and local weather officials to make decisions.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
bob rulz wrote:Wow, that was a quick change in track forecast. Does the sparseness of data in that region contribute to more uncertainty in the track?
Absolutely
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
The header of the 11 AM advisory.
BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 69
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018
...DEFIANT LESLIE STILL A HURRICANE...
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 69
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018
...DEFIANT LESLIE STILL A HURRICANE...
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
Leslie is still a hurricane at 12.6°W. Ophelia last year only reached 14.3°W as a hurricane, and Vince 05 reached 18.9°W as a hurricane but moved ashore as a tropical depression. Faith 66 officially reached to 6° W as a hurricane, but that’s pending reanalysis.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
If this hits Lisbon as a hurricane, that is a major city hit...and could be a severe impact.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
Has a fully tropical hurricane ever made landfall in Portugal?
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion
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