Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 22
- Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 7:00 pm
Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa
Wave approaching the Caribbean looks interesting... does it have any chance of developing
0 likes
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa
banksmanforever wrote:Wave approaching the Caribbean looks interesting... does it have any chance of developing
I hope not. We don't need any more mischief from the tropics this season for sure after Michael, but I am well aware we must keep watching the Caribbean this late into the season.
The disturbed area has flared today in association with a surface trough near Puerto Rico and to the north of there. Again, if the disturbance can find an area of decreasing shear or find a sweet spot down there, then it could have a shot. Again, I hope it falls apart!!
0 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
- Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5596
- Age: 36
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
Re: Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa
Yea it looked like it was spinning a bit- will watch- got a lot of shear in the Caribbean but if it can stay out of the shear maybe something short lived out there- or it could just get ripped apart we’ll see
https://photos.app.goo.gl/UJs4HTP9NbEbgzi8A
https://photos.app.goo.gl/UJs4HTP9NbEbgzi8A
0 likes
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa
Oops. I accidentally talked about the disturbance near Puerto Rico rather than the other disturbance farther east in the tropical Atlantic which this thread referenced. I apologize.
Both areas (The one with surface trough near Puerto Rico and the one approaching the Lesser Antilles) look intriguing this evening.
Both areas (The one with surface trough near Puerto Rico and the one approaching the Lesser Antilles) look intriguing this evening.
1 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Re: Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa
That flareup several hundred miles ESE of Barbados certainly has my attention as circulation is showing up very clearly on shortwave infrared. Flashbacks of Tomas in 2010).
1 likes
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa
abajan wrote:That flareup several hundred miles ESE of Barbados certainly has my attention as circulation is showing up very clearly on shortwave infrared. Flashbacks of Tomas in 2010).
https://i.imgur.com/oK2Eg8l.gif
I agree. This disturbed area appears to have a bit better environment conducive for some development as opposed to the other disturbance over near Puerto Rico currently. There is some spin with the disturbance farther east.
0 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
- EquusStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 1649
- Age: 33
- Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
- Location: Jasper, AL
- Contact:
Re: Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa
Seems to be very little shear down there in the immediate area but it increases approaching the southern Lesser Antilles... wow that's a low latitude system. Could get a brief Nadine-like thing out of it maybe.
1 likes
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
- StruThiO
- Category 3
- Posts: 821
- Age: 24
- Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
- Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.
Re: Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa
A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slight development
of this system is possible during the next day or two before
environmental conditions become unfavorable. This wave is expected
to move westward at about 15 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slight development
of this system is possible during the next day or two before
environmental conditions become unfavorable. This wave is expected
to move westward at about 15 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
1 likes
- Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5596
- Age: 36
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
Re: Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa
With nhc now mentioning it and how organization has increased some today- I think we get a brief named storm that lasts a day or two before being shredded by shear to the west.
1 likes
- Extratropical94
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3535
- Age: 29
- Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
- Location: Hamburg, Germany
- Contact:
Re: Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa
2am EDT:
Remains at 10/10
Remains at 10/10
A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slight development
of this system is possible during the next day or two before
environmental conditions become unfavorable. This wave is expected
to move westward at about 15 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slight development
of this system is possible during the next day or two before
environmental conditions become unfavorable. This wave is expected
to move westward at about 15 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
0 likes
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 14 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A broad, low-latitude tropical wave located more than 800 miles east
of French Guiana is producing a large area of cloudiness and
disorganized thunderstorms. Some slight development of this system
is possible during the next day or two before upper-level winds
become unfavorable around mid-week, prior to the disturbance
reaching the northeastern coast of South America. This wave is
expected to move westward at about 15 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Forecaster Stewart
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 14 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A broad, low-latitude tropical wave located more than 800 miles east
of French Guiana is producing a large area of cloudiness and
disorganized thunderstorms. Some slight development of this system
is possible during the next day or two before upper-level winds
become unfavorable around mid-week, prior to the disturbance
reaching the northeastern coast of South America. This wave is
expected to move westward at about 15 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Forecaster Stewart
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa
2 PM TWO:
A broad, low-latitude tropical wave located more than 800 miles east
of French Guiana is producing a large area of cloudiness and
disorganized shower activity. Any development of this system should
be slow to occur during the next couple of days before upper-level
winds become unfavorable around mid-week, prior to the disturbance
reaching the northeastern coast of South America. This wave is
expected to move westward at about 15 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
of French Guiana is producing a large area of cloudiness and
disorganized shower activity. Any development of this system should
be slow to occur during the next couple of days before upper-level
winds become unfavorable around mid-week, prior to the disturbance
reaching the northeastern coast of South America. This wave is
expected to move westward at about 15 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa
Down to 0%.
Showers and thunderstorms have decreased and become less organized
in association with a low-latitude tropical wave located several
hundred miles east of French Guiana. This wave is expected to move
westward at about 15 mph during the next few days, and development
is not anticipated due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
in association with a low-latitude tropical wave located several
hundred miles east of French Guiana. This wave is expected to move
westward at about 15 mph during the next few days, and development
is not anticipated due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Dougiefresh, Emmett_Brown, galvbay, Google Adsense [Bot], HurakaYoshi, jgh, Jr0d, NDG, pepeavilenho, Wampadawg and 89 guests