ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Mike]

That means if another Michael hit in the past, it was likely in the 1820s or sometime in the early 19th century prior to records.

That's not how statistics work at all

I just meant that if on average Michael is a once in a 150/200 year storm, it's likely we haven't seen a storm like Michael since the 1700 or 1800s.

[TallyTracker]

We drove supplies into my family in several locations. We went through Panama City, Lynn Haven, Southport, and up to CR 388 near Youngtown. It is unlike anything I've ever seen. The trees are snapped, uprooted, and twisted. Masonry, steel, and frame houses are all destroyed. Many areas are completely deforested. By the time you cross the Apalachicola River on I-10, it looks like winter up north due to the leaves and pine needles being stripped from the trees. I'll post some pics later.

[toad strangler]

That means if another Michael hit in the past, it was likely in the 1820s or sometime in the early 19th century prior to records.

That's not how statistics work at all

I just meant that if on average Michael is a once in a 150/200 year storm, it's likely we haven't seen a storm like Michael since the 1700 or 1800s.

I hear ya bud, our “recorded history” barely makes it past the US Civil War. Other data is obtained using geological evidence. These return rates are well reasoned by NOAA. IMO it’s ok to just say that Michael is a once in a lifetime if not more event for a this specific area should it get bumped up after damage analysis.

[zhukm29]

Just wanted to save this screenshot for eternity... I believe this was the very first time a "Cat 5" was shown on the Storm2K map making landfall in the U.S. mainland. Hopefully, something like this won't happen again for a very long time...


In addition, here's a particularly eerie post I found from a user called HurricaneRyan back in the Michael 2012 thread. Michael 2012 was very similar to Lee 2017 - a harmless fish storm that overachieved and became a tiny major hurricane in the middle of the Atlantic. Since 2012 was known for its weak storms, Michael was a favorite for many users at the time. This innocuous prediction, however, now feels quite ominous...

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1051222270939725824

[northjaxpro]

Death toll from Michael now at 18

[MGC]

Traveled across the panhandle on I-10 yesterday. Tree damage west and through Mariana is extensive with nearly all pine trees snapped. Tree damage extended a good 75 miles along the interstate. Most extensive swath of tree damage I've witnessed. Hate to see it down in Panama City.....MGC

[Gums]

Salute!

big TNX for the helo flyby of Mexico Beach to St Joe.

- Amazed at the difference just 5 or 6 miles to the east of MB.
- Sad to see El Governor damaged, but that thing was there when I went thru training at Tyndall back in 1966, so to just be standing there is a tribute to whoever buiilt it.
- Along line of thot from previous point!! All should note that many homes look like they were last Sunday when" Home and Garden TV" had their "Buy on the Beach" episode!!! The newer codes and experience of the builders have paid off, and the proof is right there in that flyby video!!! Pay heed.

I am amazed that many of the newer homes did not even have "zipper" shingle damage, and I have personally witnessed that in 90 - 100 mph winds here in Niceville during Erin and Opal. The new asphalt shingle design we have here and the better installation technique makes a big difference. My home insurance payment is $2,000 less than a similar home just a few blocks away that was built in the late 70's.

Despite my comments about staying or leaving, you need to evaluate your own situation. There are many folks right now that can not get back to their home even tho it is pristine compared to some just a half mile away. Roads and bridges and such need work. And even if you get back, you may be outta electricity and pure water for weeks. One community near Panama City looks to be outta power for another two weeks at a minimum. Since I live here, I get great local news from AM radio folks and the few TV crews that brave the hazardous roads to give video.

Gums sends...

[artist]

https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/mich ... 7/-85.5968
NOAA images of the destruction all over with street names

[psyclone]

Michael should serve as a stark reminder that storms can indeed gain power right up until landfall even when there's minimal oceanic heat due to shallow shelf waters. Keep this in mind when someone posts those OHC maps as a storm is nearing landfall to bolster a case that "storm A can't strengthen due to lack of warmth." That's used a lot and it's baloney. If a storm is moving at a decent pace, shallow warm water is an adequate foundation. The Gulf is always sufficiently warm to hurl a violent storm. We're lucky that energy often goes untapped..

[shah83]

Hard for me not to think that Mexico Beach got Category Five conditions. Panama City just has a "bad hurricane" look. Looks like Mexico Beach, even as we see some of the new houses resist demolition, it's obvious that even a number of modern, high standards, housing got busted.

I think the Sat images understate surge damage.

[mlfreeman]

...Mexico Beach, even as we see some of the new houses resist demolition, it's obvious that even a number of modern, high standards, housing got busted....

I saw footage showing that *WHOLE HOUSES* had been pushed around.
I don't think building codes account for your neighbor's house being pushed into yours.
Maybe in some areas they should take the age of the surrounding homes into consideration.

[psyclone]

Building codes will never be able to accommodate an extreme high end storm like Michael. We'd have to live in a concrete bunker which defeats the whole concept of coastal living. Michael turned into a true "run for your life" storm and come back to fight another day. Building codes stand the best chance of reducing $ damage in a more moderate event...think of a cat 2 or low end 3 like a Wilma in south florida for example.

[shah83]

We were really, really, really lucky with Irma.

[PandaCitrus]

I think the post analysis is going to find the surge is higher than 14 feet. There are homes literally ripped from their foundation in obvious surge damage at 15 feet elevation according to Google Earth. I'm pointing at the row of homes directly to the right of the blue roof structure at Highway 98. One of the homes that is crooked almost on the road is 15 feet elevation. Also, in google earth there are structures that are at 15 and 16 feet elevation that are gone.


https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/mich ... /-85.41866

[shiny-pebble]

This season in general has told us that just because it hasn't happened before doesnt mean it won't happen

Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1051588337646092291

[mitchell]

Building codes will never be able to accommodate an extreme high end storm like Michael. We'd have to live in a concrete bunker which defeats the whole concept of coastal living. Michael turned into a true "run for your life" storm and come back to fight another day. Building codes stand the best chance of reducing $ damage in a more moderate event...think of a cat 2 or low end 3 like a Wilma in south florida for example.

agree...building houses that are capable of withstanding category 4/5 winds and storm surge is possible but totally impractical for the vast majority of the market.

-First floors 10-15 feet above grade
-Foundations and exterior walls capable of withstanding violent impacts from other waterborne or airborne buildings/boats/infrastruture
-Every window with heavily reinforced shutters/protection

It would probably double or triple the cost of a house just to protect it from an event that has perhaps a 1% - 10% chance of occurring in the building's lifetime.

[PandaCitrus]

Pause the video at 1:51. That building is where ABC News rode out Hurricane Michael. It's a new building. Total Concrete Steel Block Construction with metal roof. The entire structure had hurricane impact glass. There's barely any detectable damage other than some minor roof damage.

It's not harder than banning wood frame and going all into the Miami-Dade code with hurricane windows and concrete and steel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADpYW4n8bIk

[PandaCitrus]

This home was built to 250mph wind specs on Mexico Beach and had no damage other than a cracked shower window and a little water intrusion.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/14/us/h ... e=Homepage