2018 EPAC Season
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Good Twitter thread discussion about the strong one that will develop.
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1051980615636017152
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1051982055809015808
https://twitter.com/PaulCaiano/status/1051983473106399232
https://twitter.com/AccuFrank/status/1051985664277925888
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1051988433478926337
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1051980615636017152
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1051982055809015808
https://twitter.com/PaulCaiano/status/1051983473106399232
https://twitter.com/AccuFrank/status/1051985664277925888
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1051988433478926337
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Regardless of what happens with the system behind, Tara is going to get the basin to new record high ACE in the next day or so is a done deal. Now the question is how far over 300 will it be?
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Ntxw wrote:Regardless of what happens with the system behind, Tara is going to get the basin to new record high ACE in the next day or so is a done deal. Now the question is how far over 300 will it be?
We'll see how much the EPAC will be over 300 and how much of a chance there will be that it ends up higher than the WPAC by the end of 2018.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
at 216 hour
My country is in danger! , but I also want more ACE for this season and another category five hurricane would be awesome
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- Extratropical94
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
20/90
The other area is still at 10/20.
An area of low pressure is expected to develop a couple of hundred
miles south of Guatemala and the southeastern coast of Mexico by
late Wednesday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the end of the week while the system moves west-
northwestward near the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
miles south of Guatemala and the southeastern coast of Mexico by
late Wednesday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the end of the week while the system moves west-
northwestward near the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
The other area is still at 10/20.
A weak area of low pressure located about 850 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of this system
is possible while it drifts northward or north-northeastward during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of this system
is possible while it drifts northward or north-northeastward during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Oct 16 2018
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Tara, located near the coast of southwestern Mexico.
1. A tropical wave located over western Nicaragua and southern Honduras
is expected to move westward into the eastern Pacific Ocean by this
evening, and develop into a low pressure system a couple of hundred
miles south of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico by late Wednesday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end
of the week while the system moves west-northwestward near or just
offshore the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. A weak area of low pressure located about 850 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of this system
is possible while it drifts northward or north-northeastward during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Oct 16 2018
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Tara, located near the coast of southwestern Mexico.
1. A tropical wave located over western Nicaragua and southern Honduras
is expected to move westward into the eastern Pacific Ocean by this
evening, and develop into a low pressure system a couple of hundred
miles south of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico by late Wednesday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end
of the week while the system moves west-northwestward near or just
offshore the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. A weak area of low pressure located about 850 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of this system
is possible while it drifts northward or north-northeastward during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Now it's a waiting game for Vicente. This will be the first time "Vicente" will be used since the modern EPac naming lists were introduced 40 years ago. All we need is "Willa" and every name on this list will have been used at least once. About time too, since this was the first set of names ever used for the modern EPac naming system (in 1978).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
zhukm29 wrote:Now it's a waiting game for Vicente. This will be the first time "Vicente" will be used since the modern EPac naming lists were introduced 40 years ago. All we need is "Willa" and every name on this list will have been used at least once. About time too, since this was the first set of names ever used for the modern EPac naming system (in 1978).
Willa was already used in 1962, but we haven't seen it used since the introduction of the modern naming lists.
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Floyd 1999 · Irene 2011 · Sandy 2012
- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
12z GFS trends stronger than the past two runs.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Vicente looks like at least a 20 ACE system
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
60% / 90%
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 16 2018
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Tara, located near the coast of southwestern Mexico.
A tropical wave located over western Nicaragua, southwestern
Honduras, and eastern El Salvador will move westward into the
eastern Pacific Ocean later this evening. The combination of the
wave and a strong northerly wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
is expected to develop a low pressure system a couple of hundred
miles south of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico by late Wednesday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late
Thursday or early Friday while the system moves west-northwestward
near or just offshore the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
10% / 20%
A weak area of low pressure located about 900 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of this system
is possible while it drifts northward or north-northeastward during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 16 2018
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Tara, located near the coast of southwestern Mexico.
A tropical wave located over western Nicaragua, southwestern
Honduras, and eastern El Salvador will move westward into the
eastern Pacific Ocean later this evening. The combination of the
wave and a strong northerly wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
is expected to develop a low pressure system a couple of hundred
miles south of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico by late Wednesday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late
Thursday or early Friday while the system moves west-northwestward
near or just offshore the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
10% / 20%
A weak area of low pressure located about 900 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of this system
is possible while it drifts northward or north-northeastward during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
1. A tropical wave is producing widespread showers over Central
America, southeastern Mexico, and the far eastern North Pacific
Ocean. The wave is forecast to move westward over the eastern
Pacific during the next few days, and a low pressure system is
expected to develop a couple of hundred miles south of Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico by late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
additional development after that time, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by Friday while the system moves generally
west-northwestward, near or just offshore the coast of southern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. A nearly stationary weak area of low pressure located about 900
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce disorganized shower activity. Some
slow development of this system is possible while it drifts
northward or north-northeastward during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Zelinsky
America, southeastern Mexico, and the far eastern North Pacific
Ocean. The wave is forecast to move westward over the eastern
Pacific during the next few days, and a low pressure system is
expected to develop a couple of hundred miles south of Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico by late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
additional development after that time, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by Friday while the system moves generally
west-northwestward, near or just offshore the coast of southern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. A nearly stationary weak area of low pressure located about 900
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce disorganized shower activity. Some
slow development of this system is possible while it drifts
northward or north-northeastward during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Zelinsky
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Oct 16 2018
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on the
remnants of Tara, located along the coast of southwestern Mexico.
1. A tropical wave is producing widespread showers over Guatemala,
southeastern Mexico, and the adjacent waters. The wave is forecast
to move westward over the eastern Pacific during the next few days,
and a low pressure system is expected to develop a couple of hundred
miles south of southeastern Mexico later today or early Thursday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional
development after that time, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by Friday while the system moves generally west-northwestward,
near or just offshore the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. A weak and nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 900
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce disorganized shower activity. Some
slow development of this system is possible while it drifts
northward or north-northeastward during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Zelinsky
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Oct 16 2018
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on the
remnants of Tara, located along the coast of southwestern Mexico.
1. A tropical wave is producing widespread showers over Guatemala,
southeastern Mexico, and the adjacent waters. The wave is forecast
to move westward over the eastern Pacific during the next few days,
and a low pressure system is expected to develop a couple of hundred
miles south of southeastern Mexico later today or early Thursday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional
development after that time, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by Friday while the system moves generally west-northwestward,
near or just offshore the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. A weak and nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 900
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce disorganized shower activity. Some
slow development of this system is possible while it drifts
northward or north-northeastward during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Zelinsky
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Pretty good model support for Willa to develop in another week or so.
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
I think this would be the first Vicente and Willa; don't think we have gotten that far down this particular list
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Well.another one in the same monsoon trough of 99E
Another trough of low pressure has developed within a large area of
disturbed weather that extends from Central America westward to
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some gradual development of this
system is possible over the next few days while it moves slowly
westward, near the coast of southern Mexico. Additional information
on the broad area of disturbed weather that extends from Central
America to south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
disturbed weather that extends from Central America westward to
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some gradual development of this
system is possible over the next few days while it moves slowly
westward, near the coast of southern Mexico. Additional information
on the broad area of disturbed weather that extends from Central
America to south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
cycloneye wrote:Well.another one in the same monsoon trough of 99EAnother trough of low pressure has developed within a large area of
disturbed weather that extends from Central America westward to
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some gradual development of this
system is possible over the next few days while it moves slowly
westward, near the coast of southern Mexico. Additional information
on the broad area of disturbed weather that extends from Central
America to south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
I wonder if this could be a redux of Ileana and John?
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Some Californian who codes things and tracks weather.
Kay '22, Hilary '23
- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Well that was fast.Is now INVEST 90E.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Global models have been passively aggressive on some CPAC development. They all show a well defined tropical low/depression in about a week. Sill time left for another CPAC classic, which would increase the ACE count.
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