Texas Fall 2018

[dhweather]

Some perspective on this flooding. This is just off FM2147 in Marble Falls.

[weatherdude1108]

Crazy to think this is not a record flood on the Llano River.

https://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/llat2_record.png


Historic Crests
(1) 41.50 ft on 06/14/1935
(2) 39.10 ft on 06/23/1997
(3) 32.60 ft on 09/10/1952
(4) 28.65 ft on 11/04/2000
(5) 22.07 ft on 11/17/2004

I agree with you. I can’t believe it’s not.

Me neither. 1935 must have been a crazy event! That was during the Dust Bowl.

https://www.history.com/topics/great-de ... /dust-bowl

[newtotex]

What does all of this mean for Austin?

[Haris]

What does all of this mean for Austin?

Mansfield dam 4 flood gates opened.

Lady bird lake will rise 3-4 feet and the parks and hike and bike trail in downtown are now closed.

That’s all for now.

Lake Travis is also closed.

[Haris]

[1900hurricane]

Crazy to think this is not a record flood on the Llano River.

https://water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/llat2_record.png


Historic Crests
(1) 41.50 ft on 06/14/1935
(2) 39.10 ft on 06/23/1997
(3) 32.60 ft on 09/10/1952
(4) 28.65 ft on 11/04/2000
(5) 22.07 ft on 11/17/2004

I agree with you. I can’t believe it’s not.

Me neither. 1935 must have been a crazy event! That was during the Dust Bowl.

https://www.history.com/topics/great-de ... /dust-bowl

1935 was actually had a very wet spring across much of Texas. Much like this event, systems prior to the mid-June 1935 event resulted in saturated soil conditions across much of the Hill Country, leading to exceptionally efficient runoff. The 1930s in general featured several cases of some of the most extreme Hill Country flooding we've seen. 1932, 1935, 1936, and 1938 all had at least one huge flood.

[dhweather]

Very similar extreme rise of the Llano River on June 15, 1935. Very similar circumstances, as noted. Soils saturated already, then one major event, anywhere from 8-20" of rain, then bam.

[Cpv17]

It seems like models have trended drier today. I just wish we could get a couple inches here before the wet pattern ends, but the CPC doesn’t think things will dry out. In fact the CPC wants to hammer SETX so idk what to believe at this point.

[weatherdude1108]

I agree with you. I can’t believe it’s not.

Me neither. 1935 must have been a crazy event! That was during the Dust Bowl.

https://www.history.com/topics/great-de ... /dust-bowl

1935 was actually had a very wet spring across much of Texas. Much like this event, systems prior to the mid-June 1935 event resulted in saturated soil conditions across much of the Hill Country, leading to exceptionally efficient runoff. The 1930s in general featured several cases of some of the most extreme Hill Country flooding we've seen. 1932, 1935, 1936, and 1938 all had at least one huge flood.

Yeah, true, the dust bowl was more north towards the Texas panhandle, Oklahoma, and points north.

In any case, back to our historical flooding event. Lake Buchanan is rising much faster today. They keep it around 1018, even though full is 1020. They said if they let it get to 1020, then they only have a few inches of wiggle room, and may not be able to open gates fast enough in a flash flood. Interesting!

https://www.lcra.org/water/water-supply ... -sheet.pdf

Under a 1990 agreement with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Lake Buchanan is considered full for flood control purposes at 1,018 feet msl during the flood-prone months of May through October every year, and at 1,020 feet msl the rest of the year.
o The FEMA agreement came about because of FEMA’s concerns that floodgates at the dam may not be able to be opened fast enough if flash flooding occurred when the lake was at 1,020 feet msl.
o With the existing capabilities at the dam, keeping the lake at or below a maximum level of 1,018 feet msl during the flood-prone months offers better flood protection to the area around Lake Buchanan.
 In 2009, LCRA began a multiyear, multimillion-dollar project to upgrade and strengthen the floodgates, hoists and other facilities at Buchanan Dam.
o LCRA is maintaining Lake Buchanan at or below 1,018 feet msl year-round during the construction project.
 Both the FEMA agreement and the current operational constraints are reflected in LCRA’s state-approved Water Management Plan.
 LCRA is working toward changing the current agreement with FEMA. The proposed change would allow the lake to rise to a maximum of 1,020 feet msl level year-round after the dam upgrade is complete. NOTE: The pending change would not mean the lake would be kept at a constant level of 1,020 feet msl; the lake would continue to rise during rainy times and fall because of use and evaporation during drier times.
 Historically, Lake Buchanan has rarely been at 1,020 feet msl – only 2 to 3 percent of the time – even before the FEMA agreement that keeps the lake at or below 1,018 feet msl for part of every year.

[Tireman4]

Wow, 2011 and Lake Travis seem like decades ago...


Water levels at Lake Travis have increased 4 feet since midnight Oct. 16 and could continue to rise, according to the Travis County Sheriff's Office. At 11:50 a.m.., KVUE reported that Lake Travis was 91 percent full and increased by eight feet since midnight.

This comes as evacuations are underway in Llano County due to major flooding along the Llano River.

KVUE previously reported that water levels at Lake Travis had increased more than eight feet in the last week. It could rise 10 more feet in the next 24 hours as floodwaters from the Hill Country moves down the Colorado River, the sheriff's office said. The water level is currently at 671 feet and will become full at 681 feet, according to the sheriff's office.

The sheriff's office is asking Lake Travis patrons to beware of debris.

RELATED:

Flash Flood Warning: Evacuations happening after 'major' flooding of Llano River Tuesday


Travis County SO
@TravisCoSheriff
Lake Travis up 4' since midnight and could rise ~10 more feet in the next 24 hours as floodwater from the hill country moves down the Colorado River. Currently at 671', will become full at 681'.

7:42 AM - Oct 16, 2018

[weatherdude1108]

Lake Travis is at its full pool elevation as of 2:45pm.




Lake Buchanan is getting there, projected to be full in the next 24 hours.

[bubba hotep]

Don't say you weren't warned...

Euro Monthly Snowfall Anomalies

Dec



Jan



Feb

[Haris]

And more now!

I'm sure lady bird lake in Austin downtown is rough LOL

I am headed to Mansfield dam tom.

Only 10min from me

[gpsnowman]

Nice post Bubba. Seems more and more everyday things are coming together for a classic winter. Fingers crossed. Wxman 57 has been eerily quiet. Probably choppin' some firewood.

[TheProfessor]

Don't say you weren't warned...

Euro Monthly Snowfall Anomalies

Dec

[https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5b09e7677c9327cbe42e65b5/t/5bc431334785d3ab4d009449/1539584318934/dec.png?format=750w

Jan

[https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5b09e7677c9327cbe42e65b5/t/5bc4314653450a5777e334d3/1539584337455/jan.png?format=750w

Feb

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/ ... ormat=750w

]https://j.gifs.com/wjzjEz.gif

Lock it in baby! Especially December and February

[TheProfessor]

You wouldn’t happen to have a map for March would you, Bubba?

[utpmg]

I was out at the lake earlier today to move the dock for my parents. It was coming up over a foot/hour. They opened one gate a noon, then another, then a third, and I see now it's still rising at nearly 2'/hr. Not putting a dent in the rate (obviously would be much higher without them) They're supposed to open the 4th in a few minutes. Y'all should google Austin Flood 1935 to see what happened the last time the Llano River crested at 40'.

[Ntxw]

The problems won't end here. In about a week to week and half Hurricane Vicente is going to bring yet another flooding event, IMO. Should rapidly or explosively intensify near the Mexican Riveria in the next couple of days. I have to agree with the CPC charts.

[Ntxw]

Also DFW is now wettest Fall on record. The wettest all time for a season is Spring of 1957 with 29.01". Starting to think that is in play.

[Haris]

Lake Travis now up to 688.

113%

Headed to 700 IMO.

4 flood gates are open but still