2018 WPAC Season

[Hayabusa]

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS trending weaker on any systems.

[Hayabusa]

[euro6208]

There is a high risk of tropical cyclone formation in the West Pacific between 150-170E as multiple lows rotate clockwise around a fairly stationary high pressure system in the area. Both the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that at least one of these lows will develop into a TC in that region during both Week-1 and Week-2. Above-average rainfall is expected to along those tracks during both forecast weeks.

[euro6208]

Here comes Yutu...

[euro6208]

GFS very notorious. Has development in 138 hours.



Much weaker than the 898mb 06Z run.

[Hayabusa]

Because of the 12z Euro operational run, more ensembles including strong ensembles

[euro6208]

18Z GFS stronger through 138 hours. Peaks this at 912 mb as it recurves just barely east of the Marianas.

[euro6208]

Here comes November.

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

The usual eps graphic bugged out (few ensembles showing) so here's the other eps graphic

[euro6208]

Globals really latching onto future Yutu. Makes it quite strong.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 96W is up

[euro6208]

I don't think that's the system the models are developing significantly...

[Hayabusa]

Yeah pre-97W is the one the Euro and GFS developing a typhoon

GFS ensembles

Euro ensembles

But we all know the Euro failed miserably in tracking Trami and Kong-rey

[Hayabusa]

FXXT03 EGRR 181556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.10.2018

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.5N 152.6E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.10.2018 12.5N 152.6E WEAK
00UTC 23.10.2018 12.8N 150.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.10.2018 13.3N 147.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.10.2018 13.5N 143.9E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.10.2018 13.4N 141.1E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 181556

[euro6208]

Here comes November.

Formation likely more east east of the Marianas. Another recurving typhoon?

[Hayabusa]

19/00z by JMA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 09N 109E WEST 10 KT.
South China Sea

[cycloneye]

INVEST 97W is up

[euro6208]

Vigorous monsoon trough setting up across the region.