EPAC: VICENTE - Remnants

[cycloneye]

Here is the other area within the same monsoon trough that 99E is.

EP, 90, 2018101800, , BEST, 0, 125N, 892W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS042, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 042,
EP, 90, 2018101806, , BEST, 0, 127N, 899W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS042, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 042,
EP, 90, 2018101812, , BEST, 0, 129N, 905W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 120, 30, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS042, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 042,
EP, 90, 2018101818, , BEST, 0, 130N, 910W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 120, 30, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS042, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 042,
EP, 90, 2018101900, , BEST, 0, 130N, 915W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 120, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 042, SPAWNINVEST, ep782018 to ep902018,

[EquusStorm]

Code orange on the 5 day already at 30/40. Faster than I expected. Could easily exhaust the main name list and start on the XYZ at this rate.

[Extratropical94]

70/80

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
centered less than 100 miles off the coast of Guatemala continue to
show signs of organization, and it is possible that a tropical
depression could be forming. If this trend continues, then
advisories could be initiated on this system later today. This
disturbance is forecast to move generally westward near the coast of
southern Mexico, and interests in that area should monitor the
progress of the low during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[WAcyclone]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1053249557973192704

[EquusStorm]

Well I guess we get Vicente out of this instead of 99E, lol. Very rapid development; if advisories begin soon, within 18 hours or so of being first noted on the TWO.

[Extratropical94]

Not a TD yet:

90E INVEST 181019 1200 13.2N 91.8W EPAC 25 1007

[zeehag]

getting worrisome in my nook here in mazatlan.
also looks like folks in la paz may get some excitement. we may be a lil busy soon... not looking forward to that part. too many folks in weak housing in this flood plain.

[Macrocane]

Ok, there's an eye and we still don't have at least a TD on the best track?

[Ntxw]

Yeah head scratch there. This very much looks like a TC. Maybe skip TD today and just go straight to a TS.

[Macrocane]

The precursor gyre from which Michael formed and both of these EPAC disturbances had produced heavy rains here in Central America in the last few weeks, thankfully this one's going west.

[EquusStorm]

The visible is jaw-dropping for an Invest. Suspect this is upgraded to a mid range TS soon.

[cheezyWXguy]

Ha! called it yesterday in the 99E thread still though, I didnt expect it this quickly...

[cycloneye]

Ha! called it yesterday in the 99E thread still though, I didnt expect it this quickly...

I am also surprised it came together very quick.Now let's see how strong it gets and where it will go.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Three-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...THE INCESSANT EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON CONTINUES...
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF GUATEMALA WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 91.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of the depression.



Tropical Depression Twenty-Three-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Two distinct areas of low pressure formed late yesterday within a
sprawling area of disturbed weather that stretched from Central
America westward over the eastern Pacific waters south of Mexico.
The easternmost low south of Guatemala is small and has spun up
quickly, with deep convection continuing to burst near the center of
circulation. Microwave data, first-light visible images, and
valuable radar data from Guatemala also show a tight core and
increasing convective bands. Maximum winds are set at 30 kt,
slightly above last evening's ASCAT pass and a T1.5 Dvorak
classification from TAFB, given the system's well-developed
structure.

The depression is located over warm waters (28-29 degrees Celsius)
and in a light-shear environment. These conditions should support
further strengthening, and the depression's small size may allow for
intensification higher than what is indicated by the intensity
models. For this first advisory, the NHC intensity forecast is near
the top end of the guidance envelope and levels off the maximum
winds in 3-5 days when there could be an increase in shear.

Since the low formed recently, the depression's current motion is
uncertain. However, microwave fixes indicate that it hasn't moved
much since last evening, and the initial motion estimate is slowly
west-northwestward, or 300/2 kt. A strong mid-level ridge spanning
across the Gulf of Mexico and northern Mexico should steer the
cyclone generally westward for the next 3 days or so. After day 3,
the ridge is expected to retreat eastward a bit, and the cyclone
should begin to turn northwestward between the ridge and another
low pressure system to the west. The track models are in good
agreement on this general scenario, but there is not agreement on
how close the system could get to the coast of Mexico during the
forecast period. Therefore, interests along the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system during the next few days. Regardless of how close it gets
to the coast, heavy rainfall, with possible life-threatening flash
flooding, is expected over portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southeastern Mexico during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 13.3N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 13.7N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 13.5N 94.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 13.3N 94.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 13.3N 96.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 13.8N 99.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 16.0N 103.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 19.0N 105.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[WAcyclone]

Guatemala radar:

http://www.insivumeh.gob.gt/?page_id=4471

[StruThiO]

...THE INCESSANT EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON CONTINUES...

[Macrocane]

I'm sure this little thing was a tropical depression since last night and a has been a tropical storm since earlier today, surely it will be upgraded in post season analysis. Latest satellite images show a very compact but well defined system.

[zeehag]

have safe house for the 2 storms. mebbe they not hit hard..hoping for tropical storms, no mas.
someone gotta cat sit for bereft friends... tough life, but someone gotta do it.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 191813
TCSENP

A. 23E (NONAME)

B. 19/1745Z

C. 13.4N

D. 92.0W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS 0.6 ON LOG10 SPIRAL FOR A DT OF 3.0. MET
AND PT ARE NOT AVAILABLE. THE 6 HR AVERAGE DT IS 3.2, WHICH JUSTIFIES
CONSTRAINTS AT THIS TIME. FT IS BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

[Yellow Evan]

This is more than 35 knots even if there's often lag with newly formed EPAC low pressure areas.

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWENTYTHR EP232018 10/19/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 41 43 45 49 50 51 53 54 53 53 53
V (KT) LAND 35 39 41 43 45 49 50 51 53 54 53 53 53
V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 42 43 45 46 45 43 41 39 38 38
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 7 10 12 18 18 20 13 18
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -5 -5 -4 -2 0 3 0 -2 0 0 0
SHEAR DIR 346 329 1 9 10 356 340 336 350 352 334 288 237
SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.6 28.3 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.3 28.9 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 144 144 148 147 158 158 156 158 153 155
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 8 9
700-500 MB RH 76 80 78 78 76 77 75 78 78 81 79 78 74
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 13 17 6 -3 -16 -12 3 13 19 32 26 32 23
200 MB DIV 47 28 32 38 27 44 52 77 88 97 95 102 119
700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 0 0 4 5 17
LAND (KM) 103 127 169 207 245 312 301 297 296 259 175 107 37
LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.3 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.3 13.9 15.0 16.5 18.0 19.4
LONG(DEG W) 92.0 92.6 93.3 93.6 94.0 94.9 96.4 98.1 99.9 101.6 103.3 104.5 105.4
STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 4 4 5 8 8 10 10 10 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 10 28 46 23 18 23

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3.
PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 10. 14. 15. 16. 18. 19. 18. 18. 18.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.3 92.0

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP232018 TWENTYTHR 10/19/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 6.8
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.77 6.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.04 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 2.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 5.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -4.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 17.1% 29.8% 25.7% 17.6% 11.7% 20.9% 22.3% 22.3%
Logistic: 12.2% 52.6% 32.7% 27.3% 17.2% 42.9% 51.8% 40.2%
Bayesian: 0.0% 3.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Consensus: 9.8% 28.6% 19.6% 15.0% 9.7% 21.4% 24.9% 20.9%
DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP232018 TWENTYTHR 10/19/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX