Texas Winter 2018-2019
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
I don't know Ntxw personally but he knows his stuff I have read much of the stuff you have posted and I fully agree with you sir! A lot of moving parts still but this is the kind of winter you can get BIG Snow AND *OR* Ice events... Rest of Oct into AT LEAST mid Nov looks rather calm but we *could* see trouble start to brew in the last days of Nov and Dec looks straight up active. Very fun times coming down the pike!
0 likes
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 253
- Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2017 7:39 pm
- Location: Jonesboro ar
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
OKMet83 wrote:I don't know Ntxw personally but he knows his stuff I have read much of the stuff you have posted and I fully agree with you sir! A lot of moving parts still but this is the kind of winter you can get BIG Snow AND *OR* Ice events... Rest of Oct into AT LEAST mid Nov looks rather calm but we *could* see trouble start to brew in the last days of Nov and Dec looks straight up active. Very fun times coming down the pike!
Okmet83, Do you know that much about the qbo?
0 likes
- TeamPlayersBlue
- Category 5
- Posts: 3310
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
- Location: Denver/Applewood, CO
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
I said it earlier in the thread. This winter has basically everything we could ask for at one time for winter weather.
5 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1660
- Age: 22
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Not sure 2009-10 is a good analog anymore. It was apparent how weak the PV was going to be, and that there would be some major blocking. Now, not so much. The 10mb temperatures are actually quite a bit cooler than normal (though it's early), suggesting a winter with less blocking than even 2017-18. However, given the ENSO state, and assuming the sun stays inactive, odds are more for a weaker vortex
2 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139717
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
2 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2254
- Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
- Location: North Fort Worth
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
The NOAA outlook is worrisome. But, it ignores El Ninos after two La Ninas.
1 likes
- CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8580
- Age: 56
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Lake Worth, TX (Tarrant Co.)
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
I pretty much toss out NOAA and the CPC seasonal forecast. Both have been inconsistent over the years. Example just Google the 2015-2016 winter outlook. That winter made top 3 warmest driest on record for Texas. They assumed super El Nino would act as any other El Nino, boy were they wrong on that one.
El Nino and La Nina plays more into whether we see more or less precipitation during the season than they do for over all temperatures.
There are many factors that play a row in how our winters pan out, many of which change throughout the season. So many moving parts it's hard to keep up with.
Analogs are a nice guideline or reference to a similar event, that's why you see 2009-2010 come up. It was a weak/Moderate El Nino, followed back to back Nina's, and came during the peak of Solar minimal, but that's about it.
63-64 has more of a atmospheric match, with weather patterns and transitions. That winter ranks in the top 3 coldest for NTX, but only averaged normal precip.
Just watched good old Delkus chime in his 2 cents for this winter in comparison to NOAA's. Looking at the 9 wettest Falls on record and the Winter following 7 had below average snowfall, 2 was above average, 09-10 being 1 of them. His November outlook was pretty much a DUH, much above average precipitation, much below average temperatures.
El Nino and La Nina plays more into whether we see more or less precipitation during the season than they do for over all temperatures.
There are many factors that play a row in how our winters pan out, many of which change throughout the season. So many moving parts it's hard to keep up with.
Analogs are a nice guideline or reference to a similar event, that's why you see 2009-2010 come up. It was a weak/Moderate El Nino, followed back to back Nina's, and came during the peak of Solar minimal, but that's about it.
63-64 has more of a atmospheric match, with weather patterns and transitions. That winter ranks in the top 3 coldest for NTX, but only averaged normal precip.
Just watched good old Delkus chime in his 2 cents for this winter in comparison to NOAA's. Looking at the 9 wettest Falls on record and the Winter following 7 had below average snowfall, 2 was above average, 09-10 being 1 of them. His November outlook was pretty much a DUH, much above average precipitation, much below average temperatures.
4 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
NOAA's outlooks basically just mimics what the IRI/Columbia University puts out. They are always in a general sense above normal for just about every season for various places, in a warming world modeled. That's not very good at pinpointing anomalous cold. But it's frequently right when winters are above normal .
5 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- ThunderSleetDreams
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1398
- Age: 42
- Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
- Location: S of Weimar, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Ntxw wrote:NOAA's outlooks basically just mimics what the IRI/Columbia University puts out. They are always in a general sense above normal for just about every season for various places, in a warming world modeled. That's not very good at pinpointing anomalous cold. But it's frequently right when winters are above normal .
Was about to post this almost verbatim...
1 likes
#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
12z CFS looks VERY promising so does the new weeklies.. CFS shows multiple shots of ARCTIC AIR around the 7th-8th of Nov and again about the 19-20th with Ice/Snow nearby on both occasions... We all know 400-700 hours out is a lifetime in forecasting and it will change but it's a trend to watch and see if other runs continue with this trend..
1 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
So how does the NOAA outlook fly in the face of everything we've been talking about?
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
I’m tired of these winter forecasters having such an east coast bias every single year. It seems like just about every year a winter forecast comes out they hammer the east coast.
1 likes
- TeamPlayersBlue
- Category 5
- Posts: 3310
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
- Location: Denver/Applewood, CO
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
2 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Snowflake7
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 51
- Age: 40
- Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 9:32 pm
- Location: Burleson
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Feels amazing here in Euless today without all the rain. Looks like its not going to last long with whats brewing up down south. Maybe I should invest in a kayak
1 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37145
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Snowflake7 wrote:Feels amazing here in Euless today without all the rain. Looks like its not going to last long with whats brewing up down south. Maybe I should invest in a kayak
Good news is it looks like it'll be a progressive system so should be another nice weekend coming. I have really been enjoying the break that's for sure
1 likes
#neversummer
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9788
- Age: 62
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: South Austin, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
I'll just leave these here for everyone to discuss ...
3 likes
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
I've been watching the North Pacific warmth anomaly. It's definitely an intriguing player we have not seen since 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.
If this weak-mod Nino gets a -AO to go with it boy will it be a noteworthy winter. The pre-dating signals for this winter is the best it has been in years. If it turns out to be a dud then you know there has been a serious climate shift to really through it off.
If this weak-mod Nino gets a -AO to go with it boy will it be a noteworthy winter. The pre-dating signals for this winter is the best it has been in years. If it turns out to be a dud then you know there has been a serious climate shift to really through it off.
4 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 253
- Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2017 7:39 pm
- Location: Jonesboro ar
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Ntxw wrote:I've been watching the North Pacific warmth anomaly. It's definitely an intriguing player we have not seen since 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.
If this weak-mod Nino gets a -AO to go with it boy will it be a noteworthy winter. The pre-dating signals for this winter is the best it has been in years. If it turns out to be a dud then you know there has been a serious climate shift to really through it off.
Ntxw, there are alot of forecasters saying we will have ao and nao positive due to the qbo shifting phases soon, and that's why i think the Pacific side will get us cold most likely. What is your best analog? I think 2009-10 is off the table and also 2002-03, just due to the qbo shift
0 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
hamburgerman7070 wrote:Ntxw wrote:I've been watching the North Pacific warmth anomaly. It's definitely an intriguing player we have not seen since 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.
If this weak-mod Nino gets a -AO to go with it boy will it be a noteworthy winter. The pre-dating signals for this winter is the best it has been in years. If it turns out to be a dud then you know there has been a serious climate shift to really through it off.
Ntxw, there are alot of forecasters saying we will have ao and nao positive due to the qbo shifting phases soon, and that's why i think the Pacific side will get us cold most likely. What is your best analog? I think 2009-10 is off the table and also 2002-03, just due to the qbo shift
Well going into 2009 (after 2007 and 2008) one wouldn't have guessed a severe -AO/NAO was on the way either. Everything is 20/20 hindsight. Not too familiar with the qbo and it's relationship, I've seen and read a lot of conflicting information. The QBO seems to me to be an index people have flexed it to fit the narrative they want to display. Like solar it tends to have a much broader means and more difficult, vs narrow to this happens; x will happen. That's just my take for that.
We can make do with a good Pacific + -AO, especially since we have a weak-moderate El Nino. It would be nice to get a -EPO shots with a subtropical jet meandering. A pseudo Hudson Bay block works too, get a ridge to ride over from western Canada.
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Snowflake7
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 51
- Age: 40
- Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 9:32 pm
- Location: Burleson
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Brent wrote:Snowflake7 wrote:Feels amazing here in Euless today without all the rain. Looks like its not going to last long with whats brewing up down south. Maybe I should invest in a kayak
Good news is it looks like it'll be a progressive system so should be another nice weekend coming. I have really been enjoying the break that's for sure
With the way everything is setting up, we might actually have a real winter. ( by that I mean snow LOL) 03-04 and 10-11 had a great outcome for snow and it looks as though this might actually end up the same. Who knows though, warm air could come out of the blue and ruin it LOL (I hope not!)
1 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 32 guests