WPAC: YUTU - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

97W INVEST
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 19, 2018:

Location: 9.0°N 166.0°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Visible/IR2 Satellite Image (click for loop):

[Hayabusa]

Ensembles from the 2018 WPAC thread viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119363&p=2724894#p2724878

Yeah pre-97W is the one the Euro and GFS developing a typhoon

GFS ensembles

Euro ensembles

But we all know the Euro failed miserably in tracking Trami and Kong-rey

[euro6208]

Another model war. EURO and NAVGEM brings in a weak TS over Saipan while GFS remains very aggressive, 928mb in 150 hours 00Z and recurves it too close.

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

97W INVEST 181019 0600 9.1N 165.4E WPAC 15 1009

[euro6208]

EURO coming in a bit stronger as it tracks between Rota and Saipan.

[Hayabusa]

[euro6208]

GFS sticking to it's guns.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.2N
164.7E, APPROXIMATELY 1212 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE
DUAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS) IN THE
SURROUNDING AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH IN THE
NEXT 48-60 HOURS, HOWEVER DIFFER ON TRAJECTORY. THE EUROPEAN MODELS
ALONG WITH NAVGEM MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY WHILE GFS DEVELOPS
THE DISTURBANCE EAST OF SAIPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

https://i.imgur.com/z5Xf55J.png

[Hayabusa]

97W INVEST 181019 1800 8.2N 164.7E WPAC 15 1008

[euro6208]

Invest 97W, currently centered just north of Kosrae near 8N163E is
slowing drifting toward the west-northwest. Invest 97W remains very
weak and is hard to find. Despite this weakness, models still hint
at developing it into a tropical cyclone in the next few days. Models
differ significantly on the track of whatever forms with the GFS
keeping it east of 150E. ECMWF, NAVGEM and ICON take it north of
Saipan, while CMC treks it over Saipan and JMA treks it closer to
Guam. As this illustrates, there is large uncertainty in the
development and track of 97W, however this feature will be monitored
closely by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the National Weather
Service. Please monitor future forecasts for any additional
information on this system.

[Hayabusa]

97W INVEST 181020 0000 8.3N 163.1E WPAC 15 1008

[Hayabusa]

00z JMA
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 09N 164E WEST SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

FXXT03 EGRR 200356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.10.2018

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 11.2N 153.3E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.10.2018 11.2N 153.3E WEAK
00UTC 23.10.2018 11.5N 152.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.10.2018 12.5N 150.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.10.2018 13.1N 148.3E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.10.2018 13.2N 146.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.10.2018 13.0N 144.2E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.10.2018 13.0N 142.2E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.10.2018 13.0N 140.2E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[Hayabusa]

Upgraded to medium
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.2N 164.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 163.1E, APPROXIMATELY
1125 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 200211Z GMI 89GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
POCKETS LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE
QUICKLY AND INTENSIFY TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

97W INVEST 181020 0600 8.4N 161.7E WPAC 20 1008

[Highteeld]

Potentially super typhoon material.

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 202130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 161.3E TO 13.3N 146.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.1N 160.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.3N 163.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 160.6E, APPROXIMATELY
981 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 201706Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY TO WARNING
CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 18-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
212130Z.
//
NNNN