EPAC: WILLA - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

[Ntxw]

Still impressive this morning. Recon should find a Cat 5.

[tolakram]

SLIDER GOES 17: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-17&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=12&x=1755&y=7050

[Highteeld]

Agreed with the poster above, recon should find Willa Cat 5. AVN looks as good as ever.

[Ntxw]

Recon en route and Willa continues to tighten up.

[Highteeld]

12z Best track = 925 mb/140 knots

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ24 KNES 221224
TCSENP

A. 24E (WILLA)

B. 22/1200Z

C. 18.7N

D. 107.1W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY AN OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG AND
EMBEDDED IN W FOR A DT=6.5 AFTER ADDING .5 FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET
AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[supercane4867]

Looks like recon is coming at perfect timing.

[supercane4867]

Starts to showing hints of a building outer eyewall

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* WILLA EP242018 10/22/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 140 138 128 114 103 77 61 45 31 28 24 20 DIS
V (KT) LAND 140 138 128 114 103 68 41 31 28 27 27 27 DIS
V (KT) LGEM 140 135 125 113 100 73 41 31 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 13 13 13 15 13 21 36 47 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 3 2 7 0 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 227 231 216 214 216 206 242 236 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.3 28.0 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 146 149 152 158 160 146 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 6 5 6 1 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 66 64 65 64 64 65 62 55 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 22 18 16 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 9 21 23 28 25 52 65 31 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 80 71 47 43 65 86 31 0 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 1 2 5 0 -10 36 -12 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 236 200 173 158 165 -30 -357 -342 -88 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.4 20.0 20.6 21.2 22.9 25.0 26.6 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.3 107.3 107.2 107.1 105.7 103.4 100.8 98.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 8 13 14 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 19 30 43 53 49 36 27 2 3 9999 9999 9999 9999

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -21. -30. -41. -52. -60. -66. -69. -70.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -12. -16. -23. -26. -25. -19. -17. -19. -25.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
PERSISTENCE 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -5. -8. -18. -18. -21. -25. -27. -27. -27. -26.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -12. -26. -37. -63. -79. -95.-109.-112.-116.-120.-126.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 18.7 107.2

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP242018 WILLA 10/22/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.35 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.35 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.50 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 509.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.26 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.83 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP242018 WILLA 10/22/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

Cat 5!!!!!!

[supercane4867]

The sun is rising over Willa

[Ntxw]

Curious to find out the true pressure of this thing from recon. Historical cases and dvorak's underestimating of compact, small, tight cores along with the surrounding environment leads me to believe she is deeper than the estimates. Willa has a full, complete CMG! Easily the coldest complete tops since Maria (atl '17) if not more (WHem).

[cheezyWXguy]

Interesting blowup on the south side of the cdo. If it can get wrapped into the eyewall, we may see further intensification. However, if the coldest cloud tops remain removed from the eyewall, then the intensity will likely level off at about where it is now.

[supercane4867]

EWRC time

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1054372466104168448

[cheezyWXguy]

EWRC time

https://i.imgur.com/5nc7nZG.jpg

Wow, that outer eyewall formed up quickly. This could be a faster ewrc which could cause it to better maintain its intensity through the process

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1054369223001157633

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2018 Time : 134537 UTC
Lat : 18:56:24 N Lon : 107:15:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 922.6mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 7.1 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +11.3C Cloud Region Temp : -74.8C

Scene Type : EYE

[supercane4867]

[Yellow Evan]

ZCZC MIATCMEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
1500 UTC MON OCT 22 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN... INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.2W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.2W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 107.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.1N 107.2W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.4N 106.9W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.1N 105.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.4N 102.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 107.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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