EPAC: WILLA - Remnants

[wx98]

I feel like recon may not have been there at the true peak anyway, that seems to have come earlier this morning, in the 08-12z timeframe. I’d say it’s maxed out at 140 to 145 kt with a pressure around 920 mbar.

[supercane4867]

[hurricanes1234]

I feel like recon may not have been there at the true peak anyway, that seems to have come earlier this morning, in the 08-12z timeframe. I’d say it’s maxed out at 140 to 145 kt with a pressure around 920 mbar.

Still a pity though because it would've given us useful information about the storm and it would've put the satellite estimates to the test, to see how accurate they were.

[Ntxw]

I feel like recon may not have been there at the true peak anyway, that seems to have come earlier this morning, in the 08-12z timeframe. I’d say it’s maxed out at 140 to 145 kt with a pressure around 920 mbar.

Still a pity though because it would've given us useful information about the storm and it would've put the satellite estimates to the test, to see how accurate they were.

Yeah you don't get many opportunities to test the estimation system often. Especially in a deep storm with a full CMG ring on this side of the world.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2018 Time : 164537 UTC
Lat : 19:11:24 N Lon : 107:13:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 924.9mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.8 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : +1.9C Cloud Region Temp : -73.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

[Yellow Evan]

This looks almost exactly like Rick the day before it unraveled from a Cat 5 to a TS.

[Tireman4]

Mechanical malfunctions, perhaps?

[cycloneye]

From Intermidiate advisory:

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
Aircraft that was en route to Willa experienced a safety issue
before entering the storm and had to return to base.

[hurricanes1234]

I feel like recon may not have been there at the true peak anyway, that seems to have come earlier this morning, in the 08-12z timeframe. I’d say it’s maxed out at 140 to 145 kt with a pressure around 920 mbar.

Still a pity though because it would've given us useful information about the storm and it would've put the satellite estimates to the test, to see how accurate they were.

Yeah you don't get many opportunities to test the estimation system often. Especially in a deep storm with a full CMG ring on this side of the world.

Indeed. I guess another system to add to the growing list of EPAC storms whose true intensities we shall never know. It's also a pity that it weren't easier for missions to be conducted into storms because the result is that so many are only assessed based on estimates which, as we've seen at times, aren't always accurate.

Of course, I'm not in any way bashing the Air Force at all, on the contrary, I fully acknowledge and appreciate the dedicated, assiduous work that they do to keep us abreast of storms when they knock on our doorstep and threaten us. What I lament is the fact that missions to tropical cyclones in general are very difficult and expensive, hence leading to a comparative lack of data because it's not sustainable or even safe to carry out regular missions into storms which are either on the other side of the world or aren't posing a threat to any landmass, and these two categories constitute the majority of storms from the perspective of the Air Force whose base is in the continental US. I guess hopefully in the coming years and decades, it will become easier and less risky on a whole, thereby allowing us to get an influx of data that'll help us in comprehending these systems better.

[supercane4867]

12 HWRF initialized Willa at 907mb/148kt

[Sciencerocks]

This looks almost exactly like Rick the day before it unraveled from a Cat 5 to a TS.

That is exactly what it appears to be doing as Southwesterly shear appears to be getting into the core. You can see this with the eye becoming much less defined and the convection on the southwest and western quads eyewall becoming thinner.

Wouldn't surprise me if this drops quite a bit by landfall. Another such storm is Kenna.

[Yellow Evan]

This looks almost exactly like Rick the day before it unraveled from a Cat 5 to a TS.

That is exactly what it appears to be doing as Southwesterly shear appears to be getting into the core. You can see this with the eye becoming much less defined and the convection on the southwest and western quads eyewall becoming thinner.

Wouldn't surprise me if this drops quite a bit by landfall. Another such storm is Kenna.

Difference is Kenna was recurving much closer to the coast.

[cheezyWXguy]

This looks almost exactly like Rick the day before it unraveled from a Cat 5 to a TS.

That is exactly what it appears to be doing as Southwesterly shear appears to be getting into the core. You can see this with the eye becoming much less defined and the convection on the southwest and western quads eyewall becoming thinner.

Wouldn't surprise me if this drops quite a bit by landfall. Another such storm is Kenna.

It looks more like a storm that's conducting an eyewall replacement cycle to me. Dry air intrusions often occur during these changes, but I am not seeing a significant amount of shear on imagery yet. With that being said, the outer eyewall was substantially larger than inner eyewall when this process began, which could cause it to take longer and decrease its chances of completing it successfully before harsher environmental conditions take over.

[Kingarabian]

Their safety is the number one priority, but damn, can't believe recon couldn't fix it. I'm sure the recon teams prep for each system accordingly and this simply proves that there's another element to major hurricanes, and no system is alike (some are more tame than others). Because it's ironic how Wilma and Patricia, the strongest systems on record allowed recon to sample during their peak. Yet this year, Hector and Willa say it aint happening.

[chaser1]

Their safety is the number one priority, but damn, can't believe recon couldn't fix it. I'm sure the recon teams prep for each system accordingly and this simply proves that there's another element to major hurricanes, and no system is alike (some are more tame than others). Because it's ironic how Wilma and Patricia, the strongest systems on record allowed recon to sample during their peak. Yet this year, Hector and Willa say it aint happening.

I'm not so sure that whatever engine or other mechanical issues they incurred were in any way related to impact from the storm though. IF it was, well that would be a scary thought.

[Kingarabian]

Their safety is the number one priority, but damn, can't believe recon couldn't fix it. I'm sure the recon teams prep for each system accordingly and this simply proves that there's another element to major hurricanes, and no system is alike (some are more tame than others). Because it's ironic how Wilma and Patricia, the strongest systems on record allowed recon to sample during their peak. Yet this year, Hector and Willa say it aint happening.

I'm not so sure that whatever engine or other mechanical issues they incurred were in any way related to impact from the storm though. IF it was, well that would be a scary thought.

The official statement from the NHC was it was due to a safety issue. This counts as speculations but unless the fusalage was cracking somewhere (extremely unlikely, since aircraft structure standards are pristine in America), it's pointing towards an engine/mechanical issue.

[chaser1]

Their safety is the number one priority, but damn, can't believe recon couldn't fix it. I'm sure the recon teams prep for each system accordingly and this simply proves that there's another element to major hurricanes, and no system is alike (some are more tame than others). Because it's ironic how Wilma and Patricia, the strongest systems on record allowed recon to sample during their peak. Yet this year, Hector and Willa say it aint happening.

I'm not so sure that whatever engine or other mechanical issues they incurred were in any way related to impact from the storm though. IF it was, well that would be a scary thought.

The official statement from the NHC was it was due to a safety issue. This counts as speculations but unless the fuselage was cracking somewhere (extremely unlikely, since aircraft structure standards are pristine in America), it's pointing towards an engine/mechanical issue.

Or toilet backing up lol?? Kidding aside, I totally agree with you. Engine or maybe some wing hydraulics issue? I'm just saying that I wonder if whatever issue that did occur, was a result of severe turbulence from the storm..... or just plain crappy bad luck where en route some issue just popped as even happens with normal passenger flights from time to time. I wasn't following any recon thread so have no idea exactly how close the plane was to the storm itself when suddenly having to turn back.

[TorSkk]

The
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that was en route to
Willa around midday was struck by lightning in one of the outer rain
bands and had to return to base due to safety issues regarding
some of the onboard equipment.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
300 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Willa continues to exhibit an impressive presentation in satellite
imagery, however the small eye has become cloud filled this
afternoon and and earlier microwave data indicated that an
eyewall replacement cycle had begun. Subjective and objective
data T-numbers are a little lower than this morning, and the
initial intensity has been set at 135 kt for this advisory. The
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that was en route to
Willa around midday was struck by lightning in one of the outer rain
bands and had to return to base due to safety issues regarding
some of the onboard equipment.

The hurricane has been moving due northward today at about 7 kt.
The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous
advisory as Willa is currently moving around the western portion of
a deep-layer ridge. An approaching shortwave trough should turn
Willa north-northeastward, then northward toward the west-central
coast of Mexico on Tuesday, and the hurricane is forecast to make
landfall within the hurricane warning area between San Blas and
Mazatlan Tuesday afternoon or evening. There are still some model
differences regarding the timing of landfall, and the NHC track
forecast is near the various consensus aids to account for these
variations in forward speed.

The rapid intensification phase that Willa has gone through since
its formation on Saturday appears to have ended now that an eyewall
replacement has begun. Although the hurricane is forecast to remain
in a low to moderate wind shear environment and over warm SSTs
through tonight, some weakening is likely due to internal dynamics
of the eyewall replacement. Increasing southwesterly shear on
Tuesday is likely to cause some additional weakening, and the NHC
intensity forecast has been adjusted accordingly, however, Willa is
forecast to remain a dangerous major hurricane through landfall.
Rapid weakening will occur Tuesday night as Willa moves over the
mountainous terrain of Mexico, and the cyclone is expected to
dissipate on Wednesday. Moisture from the remnants of Willa are
forecast to spread northeastward over northern Mexico and
portions of Texas where a swath of heavy rainfall is expected
midweek.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected Tuesday along the
coasts of the Isla Marias, and west-central and southwestern
Mexico near the path of Willa. Residents should rush preparations
to completion to protect life and property and follow any advice
given by local officials.

2. Everyone in Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning area
along the coast of west-central Mexico should prepare for life-
threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of
Willa. Hurricane force winds will also extend inland across the
mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 19.7N 107.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 20.7N 107.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 22.0N 106.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 23.9N 104.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1800Z 26.2N 101.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[galaxy401]

Struck by lightning?! Now that's some bad luck. Any future missions scheduled or is that it?