EPAC: WILLA - Remnants

[northjaxpro]

She could restrengthen to 120 KT before landfall.

[Kingarabian]

Interesting on how satellites estimates were over estimating the strength of Willa compared to what the recon found, pressure was much higher than thought.

I've seen a similar scenario, I believe in 2014, it was a hurricane recurving and very close to Baja where Recon found higher pressure compared to the satellite estimates.

[Ntxw]

Interesting on how satellites estimates were over estimating the strength of Willa compared to what the recon found, pressure was much higher than thought.

I've seen a similar scenario, I believe in 2014, it was a hurricane recurving and very close to Baja where Recon found higher pressure compared to the satellite estimates.

I don't think this is too surprising with a weakening hurricane from apex. Likewise in a strengthening hurricane recon often finds lower pressures than estimated.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like Willa is making a last minute attempt to deepen. eye clearing out. very deep convection building in all quads.. Josh Morgerman looks like he will be having a deepening hurricane vs a weakening one.

[Aric Dunn]

Oddly enough Willa kind of looks like Wilma into SW ..

[wx98]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
300 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...EYE OF WILLA APPROACHING THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL SPREADING
ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 106.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.


For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 106.4 West. Willa is moving
toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster motion
toward the northeast is expected tonight. On the forecast track,
the center of Willa will approach the coast of west-central
Mexico this afternoon, and make landfall within the hurricane
warning area along the west-central coast of mainland Mexico early
this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Willa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before
Willa reaches the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is expected
after landfall and Willa is expected to dissipate over northern
Mexico on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). An automated observing site on Las Islas Marias recently
reported a sustained wind of 88 mph (142 km/h) with a gust to 112
mph (180 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is occurring along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit, with the highest surge likely to occur near and to the
south of where the center of Willa makes landfall. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 5 inches
possible.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over Las Islas Marias for
a few more hours, and will continue to spread into the hurricane
warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico this evening.
Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of mainland
Mexico within the warning area through tonight.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland
Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
300 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Willa's earlier eyewall replacement cycle appears to have finally
ended with the erosion of the small inner eye and the outer eye
becoming better defined in microwave data. The eye has also warmed
and become more evident in infrared and visible satellite imagery
this afternoon. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that
flew into Willa earlier today measured a peak 700-mb flight-level
wind of 109 kt in the southeast quadrant and SFMR winds of around
100 kt. Since the aircraft was only able to perform a single pass
through each quadrant, there is likely some undersampling so the
initial wind speed is set at 105 kt.

Satellite and the earlier aircraft fixes show that Willa is moving
a little faster toward the north-northeast, or around 030/9 kt. The
hurricane is expected to accelerate northeastward ahead of a
shortwave trough that is passing near the Baja California peninsula.
The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement in showing that
the center of Willa will reach the coast of west-central Mexico very
soon, and then track inland over central Mexico tonight and
Wednesday. The track guidance envelope has not changed much this
cycle, and no significant changes were needed to the previous
official track.

Although the satellite presentation of Willa has improved somewhat
this afternoon, little change in strength is expected before the
hurricane reaches the coast of Mexico. Increasing southwesterly
shear and the mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico will cause
Willa to rapidly weaken after it moves inland tonight and
Wednesday. A 24-h forecast point is provided for continuity, but it
is unlikely that the low-level circulation will survive its passage
over the mountainous terrain for that long of a time period.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along the coasts
of the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa and
Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the
path of Willa.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds will reach
the coast of west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area
within the next few hours. Hurricane-force winds will also extend
inland across the mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa
moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 22.2N 106.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 23.7N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/1800Z 25.7N 101.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[supercane4867]

Major hurricane landfall imminent

[northjaxpro]

Major hurricane landfall imminent

https://i.imgur.com/f6S8EH1.gif

Yes indeed. I feel Willa is a major again just as she is approaching landfall currently.

[Ubuntwo]

Major hurricane landfall imminent

https://i.imgur.com/f6S8EH1.gif

Yes indeed. I feel Willa is a major again just as she is approaching landfall currently.

I don't think they weakened it below major though?

[SconnieCane]

Yikes, looks like she is trying to pull a mini-Michael. That was unexpected given the forecast increasing shear and possible upwelling issues approaching landfall.

[Ubuntwo]

Yikes, looks like she is trying to pull a mini-Michael. That was unexpected given the forecast increasing shear and possible upwelling issues approaching landfall.

Not so sure about "mini-Michael" - based on satellite appearance the storm looks more steady-state.

[SconnieCane]

Major hurricane landfall imminent

https://i.imgur.com/f6S8EH1.gif

Yes indeed. I feel Willa is a major again just as she is approaching landfall currently.

I don't think they weakened it below major though?

Operationally I think they were being a little generous for forecast continuity, it could have been down to a 100-105 MPH Cat. 2 earlier. Some sort of shear or dry air intrusion was timed with the EWRC such that it disrupted the new inner eyewall from properly consolidating and re-intensifying. However just based on that IR loop those issues seemed to have been worked out and 120-125 MPH seems like a good assessment right now.

[galaxy401]

Yeah I'm impressed Willa is holding her own after the EWRC. Usually these hurricanes weaken rapidly before landfall. The hot waters must be really helping.

[Ubuntwo]

Yes indeed. I feel Willa is a major again just as she is approaching landfall currently.

I don't think they weakened it below major though?

Operationally I think they were being a little generous for forecast continuity, it could have been down to a 100-105 MPH Cat. 2 earlier. Some sort of shear or dry air intrusion was timed with the EWRC such that it disrupted the new inner eyewall from properly consolidating and re-intensifying. However just based on that IR loop those issues seemed to have been worked out and 120-125 MPH seems like a good assessment right now.

It seems that may have been the case, with the storm strengthening back to cat 3 just before landfall on Maria Madre based on recon.

[Kosmo Kitty]

Any possibility for Willa to cross Mexico and re-emerge in the Gulf of Mexico?

[supercane4867]

Making landfall now just before sunset

[wx98]

Any possibility for Willa to cross Mexico and re-emerge in the Gulf of Mexico?

No, it get swept up in a frontal system and dragged across Texas and the Southeast. It most likely would never survive the Mexico mountains anyway.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Willa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
700 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...CATEGORY 3 WILLA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR ISLA DEL BOSQUE, SINALOA...

At 700 PM MDT, satellite images indicate that Willa has made
landfall near Isla Del Bosque, Sinaloa, or about 10 miles (15 km)
south of Escuinapa. Maximum winds at landfall were estimated to be
120 mph (195 km/h), with a minimum central pressure of 965 mb (28.50
inches).

A Mexican weather station near Marismas Nacionales recently reported
a wind gust to 95 mph (153 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 700 PM MDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 105.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

[CrazyC83]

We'll have to see what the pressure readings from iCyclone are. But for now, 105 kt seems reasonable - as long as he recorded in the 960-965 range.

I do think that Willa dropped down to cat 2 this morning, then re-intensified...the initial drop was likely quite rapid.