WPAC: YUTU - Post-Tropical

[WAcyclone]

Source: http://www.weather.us

[mrbagyo]

Tinian is now entering the inner core of this monster.


Next surface obs (if still available) would be interesting
http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/wyowx.fcgi?TYPE=current&DATE=current&HOUR=current&UNITS=A&STATION=PGSN

[euro6208]

Sustain winds +60mph gusting to +90 mph in Saipan the last couple of hours.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (YUTU) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 31W (YUTU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 43 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BY APPLYING A SLIGHT SOUTHWEST OFFSET TO THE CENTER OF A 20 NM ROUND
EYE IN THE 241200Z ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE. THE EYE IS
SURROUNDED BY SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE
BANDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 155 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T7.5 (155 KTS). SAIPAN REPORTED AN 85 KNOT PEAK WIND GUST AT 241258Z
AND SUSTAINED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF OVER 50 KNOTS WERE REPORTED
BETWEEN 241200Z AND 241300Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEERING STY
31W NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY THROUGH TAU
36 BUT HIGHER VWS SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
AFTERWARD. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24
BEFORE THE SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. BY TAU 72, THE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE NORTHERNMOST (NAVGEM) AND SOUTHERNMOST (JGSM) MEMBERS IS
AROUND 255 NM, THEREFORE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, STY 31W IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TURN AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND
THE STR AXIS AROUND TAU 120. THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS HUGE WITH OVER 1000 NM OF
SPREAD BETWEEN THREE CLUSTERS BY TAU 120. THE SOUTHERN CLUSTER
CONSISTS OF THE UKMET, GALWEM, AND JGSM. THEY PREDICT A STR TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE, CAUSING A
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE NORTHERN CLUSTER CONSISTS
OF NAVGEM AND COAMPS-GFS. THEY PREDICT RECURVATURE TO BEGIN AROUND
TAU 72 AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CAUSES A BREAK IN THE
STR. THE MIDDLE CLUSTER CONSISTS OF ECMWF, GFS, HWRF, AND THE ECMWF
AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. FOR THE MOST PART, THIS CLUSTER PREDICTS A
SLIGHT NORTHWARD TURN BY TAU 120 AS A SECOND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
CREATES A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE
MIDDLE CLUSTER AS THAT TRACK SEEMS MOST LIKELY, ESPECIALLY WHEN
FACTORING IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE TRACKS. OF THE OTHER TWO CLUSTERS,
THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK SEEMS A MORE LIKELY ALTERNATIVE THAN THE
NORTHERN TRACK, ALTHOUGH BOTH ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLY. BASED ON THE
SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[SconnieCane]

Prolific lightning activity for a TC on that Saipan cam. Mic quality isn't the best but there's constant roaring and banging, with occasional undertones of that unearthly moan you get with intense TCs (apparent in many of the Michael vids).

[WAcyclone]

Pressure down to 958 mb:

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Based on the JTWC forecast, I wonder how much ACE is projected.

[SconnieCane]

They say it's in moderate shear yet it looks like it does? That doesn't ring right. Already well-organized TCs can hold their own and even intensify in the face of some shear (as Michael showed), but not maintain this kind of top-end flawless organization in 15-20kt? Right??

[doomhaMwx]

Tinian (and possibly Saipan too) about to enter the eye.

[supercane4867]

Any links to weather station on Tinian?

[mrbagyo]

No more wind reading on latest Saipan METAR - conked out?

METAR: PGSN 241449Z AUTO -RA OVC006 A2811 RMK AO2 PK WND 05090/1444 PRESFR P0000 TSNO $

[Dave C]

This may have a very tight eyewall, I wonder what part of the island those observations are coming from.In 18 minutes they dropped 7 millabars.

[mrbagyo]

Observations for SAIPAN KOBLER, Mariana Islands (PGSN)
Location: 15.12N 145.72E 65 meters
Observation time: 24 Oct 2018 14:49 UTC

Altimeter Setting 28.11 inHg
Station Pressure 944.6 hPa
Peak Wind 5090 ddfff
Clouds Overcast at 600 feet
Weather light rain
1 Hour Precipitation 0.00 in

[supercane4867]

We have a 155kt TC hitting US territory yet the radar is down. It’s really hard to extrapolate central pressure without sufficient radar data if those stations miss the eye. What a great loss

[WAcyclone]

 https://twitter.com/wxmvpete/status/1055115409765089280

[Dave C]

https://twitter.com/wxmvpete/status/1055114146239467521

That's eyewall pressure falls occurring . Horrific conditions now occurring.

[mrbagyo]

Time for pressure imagination.

[WAcyclone]

Looks like only Tinian will get the eye. Most of Saipan may stay outside of the inner eyewall if this microwave image from less than 20 minutes ago is accurate:

[mrbagyo]

Gonna swallow Tinian whole

[Hayabusa]

GFS 12z initialize at 893 mb