2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 316.3 - WPAC - 338.5 - NIO - 29.1
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 286.4 - NIO - 23.2
With the sheer amount of ACE Yutu could spew in the next several days, WPac looks to rocket back ahead of the EPac soon.
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Some Californian who codes things and tracks weather.
Kay '22, Hilary '23
Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 286.4 - NIO - 23.2
East Pacific could legitimately hit 350 if the central pacific spawns another class (~15-20 ACE) and the eastern pacific spawns a strong hurricane next month like Sandra in 2015 but conservatively weaker (~5-10 ACE) with the rest being miscellaneous TS/H (~5-10).
The low estimates of 15, 5, and 5 added to 313.5 get it to 333.5 ACE and the high estimates get it to 353.5 ACE
The average is 343.5 ACE so we will see whether or not we can surpass the once-imfathomable 350 ACE. Stronger miscellaneous storms would be needed.
The low estimates of 15, 5, and 5 added to 313.5 get it to 333.5 ACE and the high estimates get it to 353.5 ACE
The average is 343.5 ACE so we will see whether or not we can surpass the once-imfathomable 350 ACE. Stronger miscellaneous storms would be needed.
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 294.8 - NIO - 23.2
The WPac has now also crossed 300 units, sitting at 302.605 as of 12Z.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 294.8 - NIO - 23.2
1900hurricane wrote:The WPac has now also crossed 300 units, sitting at 302.605 as of 12Z.
You are way ahead of CSU.
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 294.8 - NIO - 23.2
cycloneye wrote:1900hurricane wrote:The WPac has now also crossed 300 units, sitting at 302.605 as of 12Z.
You are way ahead of CSU.
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
I would consider my numbers more accurate than CSU's. They always fall behind each year for strange reasons. Just using Maria as an example, they don't use the revised working best track data (seen here in the NRL trackfile for example) on July 4th and 5th while the system was undergoing rapid intensification, instead using some of the original lowballed estimates. Additionally, there is a data gap on July 11th around the time of landfall where two best track points are missing (06Z and 12Z). Extend occasional errors like this across the many systems of the WPac, and it's easy to see why their numbers are too low. Here is the CSU table compared against mine.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 113.8575 - EPAC - 314.2875 - WPAC - 302.605 - NIO - 27.7175
Additionally, here is my comparison for the four NH basins, with numbers as of 12Z today in the header of this post.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 303.6 - NIO - 23.2
With the EPAC record, the WPAC is now poised to overtake all basins. Given you can have huge ACE raking systems in November (sometimes even the strongest Typhoons of the year this month) and December the WPAC will take the claim for good once Yutu is done, especially so that we have an El Nino which pretty much makes the season year round there.
Will be curious to see the ACE numbers for the upcoming SPAC season. Maybe we'll see another Pam or Winston like storm.
Will be curious to see the ACE numbers for the upcoming SPAC season. Maybe we'll see another Pam or Winston like storm.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 303.6 - NIO - 23.2
This season's northern hemisphere's ACE has been epic, in the history books for sure.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.3 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 303.6 - NIO - 23.2
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 120.7 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 307.4 - NIO - 23.2
By my numbers, the WPac has passed the EPac again.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 122.1 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 315.3 - NIO - 23.2
And just like that, the WPAC is back in the lead thanks to Yutu. Unless the EPAC produces another powerful hurricane, the WPAC should hold the lead for the rest of the year. Atlantic is getting another boost thanks to Oscar and it possibly becoming a hurricane for several days. Amazing activity from all the basins.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 122.1 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 315.3 - NIO - 23.2
WPac ACE is now at 324.195. Excluding the obviously hyperactive 2015, this is the highest number for the basin since 2004. An active season for sure, but the last decade or so of typhoon seasons has been particularly below average. This is only the third >300 ACE season since 2006 (and 2012, the other season aside from this one and 2015, made it by less than a unit), and since that time, there has been more seasons <200 ACE than >300. Those seasons are 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2017, by the way. Quite a contrast to the 1990s, when five seasons had >400 units of ACE.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 127.0 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 320.7 - NIO - 23.2
EPAC may overtake the WPAC again next week, if one of the tagged invests becomes a major hurricane as some of the models depict.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 314.1 - WPAC - 322.6 - NIO - 23.2
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1058803955738861568
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1058802703151841281
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1058823326783758338
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1058802703151841281
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1058823326783758338
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 314.9 - WPAC - 322.6 - NIO - 23.2
Virtually all of that purely-tropical ACE came courtesy of Florence. Sometimes you get a long-lived CV major, sometimes you don't... And that makes or breaks a seasonal ACE forecast.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 122.1 - EPAC - 313.5 - WPAC - 315.3 - NIO - 23.2
1900hurricane wrote:WPac ACE is now at 324.195. Excluding the obviously hyperactive 2015, this is the highest number for the basin since 2004. An active season for sure, but the last decade or so of typhoon seasons has been particularly below average. This is only the third >300 ACE season since 2006 (and 2012, the other season aside from this one and 2015, made it by less than a unit), and since that time, there has been more seasons <200 ACE than >300. Those seasons are 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2017, by the way. Quite a contrast to the 1990s, when five seasons had >400 units of ACE.
The West Pacific likely has an active and less active phase like the Atlantic does. Not sure how long the active and less active phase last in the Atlantic.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 314.9 - WPAC - 322.6 - NIO - 23.2
somethingfunny wrote:Virtually all of that purely-tropical ACE came courtesy of Florence. Sometimes you get a long-lived CV major, sometimes you don't... And that makes or breaks a seasonal ACE forecast.
Some seasons are more favorable for Cape Verde hurricanes, while others not as.
1961, 1998, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2017 were very favorable for CV hurricanes, while 2005 was not as despite being very active.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 316.3 - WPAC - 333.2 - NIO - 29.1
Nice boost in ACE from Man-yi and Usagi becoming typhoons.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 316.3 - WPAC - 333.2 - NIO - 29.1
Damn, close but no cigar. The EPAC came pretty close to matching or beating the WPAC this year.
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Re: 2018 ACE: NATL - 128.9 - EPAC - 316.3 - WPAC - 338.5 - NIO - 29.1
New record for EPAC ACE was made in 2018.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201813
The ACE index for the East Pacific basin during 2018 was 316 (x104 knots2), which is the highest ACE value on record and almost three times the 1981-2010 average of 132 (x104 knots2 ).
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201813
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