WPAC: YUTU - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

Well and that too (passage over the island plus erc)

[mrbagyo]

More on ERC

[WAcyclone]

Saipan Airport is transmitting some spotty data again: 974 mb at 1836Z and a gust to 73 kt at 1804Z.
Since the equipment seems to be working I think there's a fair chance they can restore at least some of the data between 15Z and 18Z...

[TorSkk]

JMA without changes

TY 1826 (Yutu)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 24 October 2018

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 24 October>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N15°25' (15.4°)
E145°20' (145.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 905 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 440 km (240 NM)
SW 330 km (180 NM)

[euro6208]

What a ride it has been. Tinian got the eye and Saipan got an intense eyewall. Too bad the obs stopped updating.

[euro6208]

Likely will go down as the strongest typhoon to ever make landfall in the Marianas!

[CrazyC83]

I'd estimate the landfall intensity at 160 kt, given the low bias of recent high-Dvorak ratings and the ADT. As for right now, I'd go with 145 kt.

[Cunxi Huang]

Tinian Dynasty Hotel:

https://www.facebook.com/100013986490044/videos/489576118185267/

[WAcyclone]

[CryHavoc]

https://i.imgur.com/jdIQs11.gif

Eyewall appears to be contracting steadily in these frames. Gorgeous photos.

Can you imagine what pre-weather satellite peoples must have imagined hurricanes to look like? Modern high-rez views are simply stunning.

[Hayabusa]

24/12z

[supercane4867]

Good points brought by RM

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1055206328925413381

[Hayabusa]

As Yutu passed over the islands, here is some footage what Meranti did to Itbayat (and Basco), a similar intensity or stronger than Yutu, but imo damage doesn't seem to be extremely catastrophic on Itbayat, lack of man made infrastructure (pop is ~2.8k)? Really strong man made buildings? Overestimated intensity?
[youtube]https://youtu.be/F7_qTMDUmZM[/youtube]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/aA0FSMcmgAE[/youtube]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/v3ETZ4WEcwA[/youtube]

[NotoSans]

Ryan relies too much on raw T-numbers, and as I have said before, the ADT algorithm is somehow biased towards systems with deeper convection but ragged eyes. I cannot see any reason why Yutu did not peak at 12Z yesterday, and it was obviously not 12 to 18 hours off.

In fact, JTWC broke Dvorak constraints to arrive at T7.5 at the 03Z and 06Z fixes.

[mrbagyo]

As Yutu passed over the islands, here is some footage what Meranti did to Itbayat (and Basco), a similar intensity or stronger than Yutu, but imo damage doesn't seem to be extremely catastrophic on Itbayat, lack of man made infrastructure (pop is ~2.8k)? Really strong man made buildings? Overestimated intensity?
[url]https://youtu.be/F7_qTMDUmZM[url]

[url]https://youtu.be/aA0FSMcmgAE[/rl]

[url]https://youtu.be/v3ETZ4WEcwA[/rl]

Traditional old houses in Itbayat are made of meter thick walls.
Plus Phil media doesn't care about academic damage survey so you'll get very limited images and graphics (think about Megi, very limited damage images)

[Hayabusa]

As Yutu passed over the islands, here is some footage what Meranti did to Itbayat (and Basco), a similar intensity or stronger than Yutu, but imo damage doesn't seem to be extremely catastrophic on Itbayat, lack of man made infrastructure (pop is ~2.8k)? Really strong man made buildings? Overestimated intensity?
[url]https://youtu.be/F7_qTMDUmZM[url]

[url]https://youtu.be/aA0FSMcmgAE[/rl]

[url]https://youtu.be/v3ETZ4WEcwA[/rl]

Traditional old houses in Itbayat are made of meter thick walls.
Plus Phil media doesn't care about academic damage survey so you'll get very limited images and graphics (think about Megi, very limited damage images)

Yep
If Meranti is as reliably estimated then it's one of the best explanations

https://weather.com/news/news/typhoon-m ... hilippines

At a Glance
Officials said there were no deaths on the northern Philippines island of Itbayat, despite taking a direct hit from Super Typhoon Meranti a week ago.
The island's residents live in well-built homes that are known to withstand even the strongest tropical cyclones.
There is still plenty of damage on the islands that were impacted by the storm, and emergency supplies have been flown in.
It doesn't hurt that many of the islands' residents live in houses with sturdy limestone walls that are several feet thick, and they don't build the houses facing north because that's where the strongest winds typically come from when these typhoons threaten, the report added.

[Ptarmigan]

Super Typhoon Yutu is the first Category 5 storm to make landfall on America and American territory since Andrew in 1992.

I have not seen it in the news. This should be big news.

[Highteeld]

Here is Yutu at its peak, around 13 UTC. Definitely one of the best.

[Hayabusa]

Some morning footage of the damage
http://www.meteotube.net/2018/10/25/liv ... 5-10-2018/

[Highteeld]

Yutu was definitely the jackpot we were all waiting for though. Might be a while until we get another CDO this cold with an eye so warm, well over 23*C... This storm is the climax of the dramatic 2018 WPAC season we have been tracking.