WPAC: YUTU - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1055116708334059520

[WAcyclone]

Super Typhoon Yutu got captured by the Sentinel-3 satellite at 0038Z this morning:



Link to the original full-resolution image (4128 x 4305 px): https://c2.staticflickr.com/2/1904/44635674895_86854db728_o.png

Close-up of the eye:

[mrbagyo]

Finally got a microwave pass with decent resolution.
Outer Eyewall looks fragmented. Maybe due to some VWS and dry air entrainment.

I think the 145 knots is extremely generous at this point.

[doomhaMwx]

[euro6208]

GFS barely weakens this the next 5-6 days. Has it below 917 mb the whole way with anothr peak at 891 mb.

[dexterlabio]

Maybe even a Cat4 strength estimate might be a little too generous at this point... Now we wait for the time the inner eyewall gives in and the secondary eyewall contracts. Will Yutu strengthen back to a Cat5? Wait and see.

[euro6208]

Looks like it;'s undergoing EWRC. Too little too late. Damage done.

[Hayabusa]

2018OCT25 114000 6.6 925.0 129.6 6.1 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF -23.55 -76.92 EYE/P -99 IR 9.7 16.29 -142.34 ARCHER HIM-8 19.2

[Hayabusa]

31W YUTU 181025 1200 16.3N 142.3E WPAC 140 918

[Hayabusa]

Yutu is the strongest TC to hit the United States this year beating Michael and the worst since 1935 or at least Karen

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JMA now calling for a landfall. Subject to change, but this denotes a major shift.

[euro6208]

Yutu is the strongest TC to hit the United States this year beating Michael and the worst since 1935 or at least Karen

Had this had recon, probrably would have been the strongest TC by pressure at U.S landfall. The WPAC is regularly known to produce 880's-890's. Probrably lower and especially at this time of year.

[Hayabusa]

Yutu is the strongest TC to hit the United States this year beating Michael and the worst since 1935 or at least Karen

Had this had recon, probrably would have been the strongest TC by pressure at U.S landfall. The WPAC is regularly known to produce 880's-890's. Probrably lower and especially at this time of year.

Typhoon Keith of 1997 was 180 mph like Yutu, but JTWC estimated Keith's pressure as 878 mb, and Yutu's just 899 mb, so if we follow the old conversion, Yutu is the strongest US hit on record.

[Highteeld]

I feel like the fact that Yutu is still listed at 140 knots really illustrates how broken the dvorak constraint system can really be. JTWC is probably overestimating Yutu by 15-20 knots as a result.

[euro6208]

I feel like the fact that Yutu is still listed at 140 knots really illustrates how broken the dvorak constraint system can really be. JTWC is probably overestimating Yutu by 15-20 knots as a result.

Yup the same goes when it was rapidly intensifying.

[Guamphoon]

Yutu is the strongest TC to hit the United States this year beating Michael and the worst since 1935 or at least Karen

Had this had recon, probrably would have been the strongest TC by pressure at U.S landfall. The WPAC is regularly known to produce 880's-890's. Probrably lower and especially at this time of year.

I can understand how keeping up an entire weather squadron of WC-130s active might be hard to justify. But why aren't we getting weather drones these days? The military has been using them constantly for decades.

Given the value of federal assets on Guam, and around the Pacific, we should have 1 or 2 drones on Andersen or AB Won Pat decked out for flying into these typhoons with mini-dropsondes and all.

Maybe not as good as the full thing, but better than nothing. Also no risk of life.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (YUTU) WARNING NR
17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 31W (YUTU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 206 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF TINIAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS STY 31W MAINTAINS ROBUST CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER, ALTHOUGH ITS EYE HAS COOLED AND SHRANK AND IS ALMOST NOT
VISIBLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 251200Z HIMAWARI EIR
IMAGE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE 6NM WIDE EYE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS PLACED AT 140 KTS, IN LINE WITH WEAKENING DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES,
AND ABOVE THE RJTD ESTIMATE OF T6.5 (127 KTS). STY 31W HAS BEEN
UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC), AND A 250901Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE PRIMARY EYEWALL HAS ERODED.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS STY 31W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND HAS MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST
IMPINGING ON OUTFLOW TO THE EAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE, NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. STY 31W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN STR LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, STY 31W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST WHILE POSITIONED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRS. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH TAU 24, INDICATING
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, BUT QUICKLY DIVERGES AFTER THAT WITH A
SPREAD OF 232 NM BY TAU 72. AT TAU 72, JGSM, GALWEM, AND THE UKMET
MODEL REMAIN THE SOUTHERN OUTLIERS DEPICTING A JOG TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST, TAKING THE SYSTEM OVER LUZON, WHILE NAVGEM, COAMPS-
NAVGEM, AND COAMPS-GFS ARE THE NORTHERN OUTLIERS DEPICTING A SLOWING
TRACK AND RECURVE SCENARIO BEGINNING AT TAU 72. GFS, HWRF, AND ECMWF
ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS TRIFURCATION SCENARIO SHOWING A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
TRIFURCATION SCENARIO. AS STY 31W ENTERS A REGION OF HIGHER VWS, IT
WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE TRIFURCATION IN THE MODELS BECOMES EVEN MORE
PRONOUNCED. NAVGEM, COAMPS-NAVGEM, AND COAMPS-GFS SHARPLY RECURVE
THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 72 AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
SPLITS THE TWO STRS. JGSM, GALWEM, AND THE UKMET MAINTAIN STRONG
STRS AND CONTINUE MOVING STY 31W TO THE WEST OVER LUZON. THE MIDDLE
GROUP IS COMPOSED OF GFS, ECMWF, AND HWRF. THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
MEAN PREDICTS A STRAIGHT-RUNNING TRACK SKIRTING THE NORTHERN TIP OF
LUZON, BUT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBER MEAN DEPICTS A LATE-TERM
RECURVE SCENARIO. GFS AND THE NEW RUN OF HWRF PREDICT A RECURVE
STARTING AFTER TAU 96 AS A TROUGH TO THE NORTH DEPENS AND WEAKENS
THE STRS ON EITHER SIDE. THE GFS AND HWRF POINTS OF RECURVE ARE TO
THE WEST OF THE NAVGEM GROUPING OF MODELS THAT BEGIN THE RECURVE AT
TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING A RECURVE STARTING AT THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STY 31W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY
UNDER THE INCREASING VWS AND DRIER AIR IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA,
ALTHOUGH SSTS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE, ABOVE 28 CELSIUS. THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ABOVE THE
MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS AND BELOW THE HWRF SOLUTION, AND FAR BELOW THE
COAMPS-TC SOLUTIONS, WHICH ARE UNREALISTICALLY HIGH. AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, INTENSITY WILL REMAIN STEADY AS STY 31W TAPS
INTO THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND ITS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED.
DUE TO THE 948NM SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE AT TAU 120, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[TorSkk]

Large eye trying to clear out

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This could get more intense.... again. After clearing that large eye, torching eye temps and that tropopause would allow increasing intensity estimates indicating another phase of deepening.

[Guamphoon]

Had this had recon, probrably would have been the strongest TC by pressure at U.S landfall. The WPAC is regularly known to produce 880's-890's. Probrably lower and especially at this time of year.

I can understand how keeping up an entire weather squadron of WC-130s active might be hard to justify. But why aren't we getting weather drones these days? The military has been using them constantly for decades.

Given the value of federal assets on Guam, and around the Pacific, we should have 1 or 2 drones on Andersen or AB Won Pat decked out for flying into these typhoons with mini-dropsondes and all.

Maybe not as good as the full thing, but better than nothing. Also no risk of life.

They can do it but care more about others.

They say it's funds/money but i can tell you that it isn't. If they can fund black projects, then wow. I'll keep it short and simple.

Well they can't even keep their 30 year old weather radar up and running, so I guess recon drones might be asking a bit much.