CaptainCrunch’s 2018 Halloween AnalogyOver the last 16 years I have been doing a very non-scientific analogy where I look at October 31st and gauge how the following winter season of that year will turn out. It has been quite interesting on the accuracy of this 1 day with a 12-4 (75%) record. So how does this all work? Well I’m glad you asked, because it’s a very simple formula. I take that days H/L temp, and precip total to see if it’s above, or below that day’s average. Last year’s Halloween temps were 60/48 (-9) below the daily average, and recorded .04” of rain. My Winter outlook for 2017/18 then called for Cooler than average temps with average precip, but as it turned out that winter ended slightly above average with temps, and above average precip (thanks February).
2018 Halloween H69 L52 A61 (-2) P1.14”So on to Winter 2018/19Looking at analogs I'm going with a blend of 09-10, and 76-77, as these two El Nino's blend a solar minimal with an active southern jet. They both follow back/back La Nina’s, they both had an active wet Sept and Oct, and they both continued to be average or above precip wise thru March the following year, both were also colder than average.
09-10 first and last freeze dates (Dec 3rd March 21st) (45) 76-77 first and last freeze dates (Nov 13th Feb 27th) (51)2018-19 first and last freeze dates purposed (Nov 18th March 9th) (46)
So my winter outlook has NCTX seeing slightly below average temps and above average precip. The average first freeze for DFW is Nov 23rd. Average # of freezes for DFW is 32.
Snow/ice events this winter? YES
This is the best 2018-19 Winter outlook I’ve read so far.http://firsthandweather.com/3993/2018-2 ... r-outlook/
So I was asked why the slightly cooler temps rather than much cooler or just colder than average as some of the other maps show. The reason is here in NTX we often have wide swings in temperatures. The typical near 80 one day then not getting out of the 40s the next. We often have more small stretches of warmer than average temps, followed by periods of below average temperatures versus the opposite. These swings usually translate to a monthly mean that's only 1-2 degrees below average.
It has been a while since we had a significant stretch of really cold weather, something like 1983 record 295 hrs straight of 32 or below temperatures.