2018 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Next one...Toraji...recurves...

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1053374056827744256

[doomhaMwx]

19/00z by JMA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 09N 109E WEST 10 KT.
South China Sea

Invest/TD 98W

[euro6208]

KW and MJO expected to last till the last week of the month.

[euro6208]

Yutu

Yutu becomes the 6th Cat 5 of the year in the WPAC. Incredible.

[euro6208]

During the next two weeks, there is a moderate potential for additional tropical cyclone development near or east of the current location of Typhoon Yutu.

[euro6208]

Not seeing anything developing the next few days according to the models...KW and MJO still raging. Amazing what that can do with el nino with the strongest TC of the year...Yutu.

[euro6208]

I had to post this again since they are more common here than in any other basin.

1952258N18178 1952091718 160.0 13W:OLIVE
1952296N06152 1952102600 160.0 20W:WILMA
1952363N07170 1952123112 160.0 28W:HESTER
1953219N08155 1953081118 160.0 08W:NINA
1955346N06142 1955121512 180.0 22W:RUTH
1956207N13145 1956073006 160.0 06W:WANDA
1957311N06171 1957111606 160.0 20W:LOLA
1958143N06158 1958052900 160.0 02W:PHYLLIS
1958240N08146 1958090118 165.0 13W:GRACE
1958263N13148 1958092412 175.0 15W:IDA
1959236N12139 1959082906 170.0 JOAN:JOAN(-)1
1959254N14148 1959091506 165.0 SARAH
1959263N11160 1959092312 165.0 VERA
1961248N18155 1961091112 155.0 PAMELA
1961250N07173 1961091200 185.0 NANCY
1961276N22152 1961100706 180.0 VIOLET
1962224N11151 1962081618 160.0 RUTH:SARAH
1962311N06154 1962110900 160.0 KAREN
1964247N09159 1964090706 170.0 SALLY
1964319N08141 1964111806 165.0 LOUISE:MARGE
1964344N06153 1964121218 170.0 OPAL
1965161N09151 1965061706 160.0 DINAH
1966171N09151 1966062600 170.0 KIT
1967241N15170 1967090312 155.0 OPAL
1967283N11150 1967101418 160.0 CARLA
1971311N06141 1971111118 155.0 IRMA
1973274N10137 1973100600 160.0 NORA
1975319N08146 1975111912 160.0 JUNE
1979275N05159 1979101206 165.0 TIP
1984294N04163 1984102612 155.0 VANESSA

Recon ends in 1987

1992277N16140 1992101318 155.0 YVETTE
1992318N06182 1992112100 160.0 GAY
1995293N05177 1995110100 155.0 ANGELA
1997283N07177 1997101718 160.0 IVAN
1997284N04179 1997101706 160.0 JOAN
1997299N07169 1997110112 155.0 KEITH:KETTH
1997333N06194 1997121800 160.0 PAKA:PAKA
1998281N11151 1998101312 155.0 ZEB
2000125N06136 2000050918 155.0 DAMREY
2001347N04162 2001122300 155.0 FAXAI
2004164N06139 2004061606 155.0 DIANMU
2004230N09172 2004082300 155.0 CHABA
2009325N06148 2009112512 155.0 NIDA
2010285N13145 2010101712 160.0 MEGI (Should be 175 knots based on recon. Flight level winds supported surface winds of 200 mph sustained)
2012 Sanba 155.0
2013 Haiyan 170.0 (860 mb and 185 to 195 knots?)
2014 Vongfong 155.0
2014 Nuri 155.0
2014 Hagupit 155.0
2015 Soudelor 155.0
2016 Nepartak 155.0
2016 Meranti 170.0
2018 Mangkhut 155.0


There were 8 from the 90's, 6 from 2000 to 2010 and already 8 for this decade. (Satellite)

The record is 13 from the 50's. 12 from the 60's. (Recon)

2017 is the first year since 2011 to not feature one and breaks a 4 year streak.

Let's add Super Typhoon Yutu...

Kong Rey should be on the list.

Since 1987, typhoons have not become weaker. It's the loss of recon and that is making the WPAC look weaker.

Look at the other basins having one of their most intense hurricanes since 2010 occurring yet the WPAC is still stuck with the old record. Sad.

[euro6208]

Next 5 names on the list:

Toraji
Man-yi
Usagi
Pabuk
Wutip

[euro6208]

There has been little change to the overall thinking regarding the evolution of the global tropical convective pattern. The indices are being pulled back to the West Pacific, partly due to the base state, and partly due to powerful Typhoon Yutu. The storm, which devastated parts of the Northern Mariana Islands, is helping to generate a substantial westerly wind burst near 140E. Dynamical model MJO index forecasts propagate this signal eastward to the Western Hemisphere, and back to the Indian Ocean, although interference with the low frequency state reduces confidence in this solution.

Recent dynamical model forecasts depict an increase in convection along the East Pacific ITCZ, and there is an increasing potential for tropical cyclone formation well south of Mexico. Additionally, confidence in tropical cyclone formation is substantially higher over the central Atlantic, well northeast of the Lesser Antilles. The outlook has been updated to reflect these increased potentials. Fewer GEFS ensemble members spin up a new tropical cyclone east of Guam; however, given the substantial westerly wind burst near New Guinea, moderate confidence for cyclogenesis is maintained and shifted southwestward. Although not included in the updated forecast's domain, dynamical models continue to indicate a potential for tropical cyclone development over the Arabian Sea.

[1900hurricane]

WPac ACE is now at 324.195. Excluding the obviously hyperactive 2015, this is the highest number for the basin since 2004. An active season for sure, but the last decade or so of typhoon seasons has been particularly below average. This is only the third >300 ACE season since 2006 (and 2012, the other season aside from this one and 2015, made it by less than a unit), and since that time, there has been more seasons <200 ACE than >300. Those seasons are 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2017, by the way. Quite a contrast to the 1990s, when five seasons had >400 units of ACE.

[euro6208]

Null on the models but starting to see some activity next month.

[euro6208]

The west Pacific is expected to become more favorable for tropical cyclone development by mid-November if a Kelvin wave progresses east ahead of the MJO entering the Indian Ocean.

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

Beginning with Jebi's classification in late August, we've only seen 7 JTWC systems/6 JMA named storms, but over half of the season's ~330 units of ACE thus far. That span featured a JTWC depression (29W), a weak tropical storm (Barijat), and five category 5 super typhoons. This has been an impressive El-Nino type stretch recently.

[euro6208]

Seems like the ensembles and models are liking an area of disturbance from the Central Pacific to develop west of the dateline, southeast of Guam. Another long tracker?

[Hayabusa]

The name Yutu has finally become a category 5, next name is Toraji, can Toraji finally become a category 5 too? 2018 is still 4 super typhoons away and 4 category 5s away from 1997's record

[euro6208]

Still alot of uncertainty. EURO and GFS keeps it weak as it moves towards the Marianas.

[euro6208]

Here it comes...


GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.11.2018

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 9.0N 173.7E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 08.11.2018 9.0N 173.7E WEAK

12UTC 08.11.2018 9.1N 172.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

[euro6208]

NAVGEM very bullish.