Texas Fall 2018

[Yukon Cornelius]

Picked up 2.5” today.

[Haris]

whats up with tonights gfs!

[Cpv17]

[url]https://preview.ibb.co/mk06nf/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-15-1.png [/url]

whats up with tonights gfs!

I’m telling y’all, this is the system we have to watch out for imo! The SPC is saying only a marginal risk for severe weather right now for SETX, but I bet by Friday or Saturday they will change their tune especially if you believe the GFS.

[Brent]

[url]https://preview.ibb.co/mk06nf/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-15-1.png [/url]

whats up with tonights gfs!

it's either gonna be really wrong or have a victory as its outgoing

the 84 hour NAM looks like early and east much less of a threat but it is the NAM, News up here seems to think it clears out after Sunday morning

[starsfan65]

[url]https://preview.ibb.co/mk06nf/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-15-1.png [/url]

whats up with tonights gfs!

it's either gonna be really wrong or have a victory as its outgoing

the 84 hour NAM looks like early and east much less of a threat but it is the NAM

It is early in the NAM it will change.

[Cpv17]

Dang, that’s some deep troughing!

[Cpv17]

The FV3 has it too.

[Brent]

Dang, that’s some deep troughing!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018110100/gfs_z500a_us_16.png

so ready for this pattern with cold air...

[TXWeatherMan]

The FV3 has a really good cold front around the 12th

[Brent]

The Euro is way faster/less threatening with the Sunday storm still. Most of the precip is east by 18z

[gpsnowman]

Has anyone noticed just how accelerated the fall foliage is this year compared to recent years? The colors are vibrant and what seems to me about two weeks ahead of schedule. Some trees have shed all leaves completely. I'm sure the recent rains have played a part in the vibrant colors, but I am wondering if the early color change portends a cold fall and winter. Hope so.

[weatherdude1108]

Has anyone noticed just how accelerated the fall foliage is this year compared to recent years? The colors are vibrant and what seems to me about two weeks ahead of schedule. Some trees have shed all leaves completely. I'm sure the recent rains have played a part in the vibrant colors, but I am wondering if the early color change portends a cold fall and winter. Hope so.

I've noticed the leaves changing and dropping here over the last couple weeks. Earlier than normal.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Has anyone noticed just how accelerated the fall foliage is this year compared to recent years? The colors are vibrant and what seems to me about two weeks ahead of schedule. Some trees have shed all leaves completely. I'm sure the recent rains have played a part in the vibrant colors, but I am wondering if the early color change portends a cold fall and winter. Hope so.

Ive noticed it as well. Up here the fall colors are better than ive seen in many years. It looks almost like up around New England in the fall.

[gboudx]

Has anyone noticed just how accelerated the fall foliage is this year compared to recent years? The colors are vibrant and what seems to me about two weeks ahead of schedule. Some trees have shed all leaves completely. I'm sure the recent rains have played a part in the vibrant colors, but I am wondering if the early color change portends a cold fall and winter. Hope so.

There was an article about in the Dallas Morning News a couple days ago.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/weather ... age-dallas

The yellow, orange and red leaves starting to pop up on the trees in your neighborhood may be just a preview of the stunning display of fall color to come.

It's a bit early for leaves in North Texas to start turning, but the record-setting wet weather of recent weeks helped speed things up.

"I'm surprised I'm seeing color this early," said Dave Forehand, vice president of gardens at the Dallas Arboretum and Botanical Gardens.

Usually, the area's plants and trees don't start changing until mid- to late November.

Not only are we ahead of schedule — the early arrival could be a sign of more "breathtaking" color to come, Forehand said. But it likely won't be a fall full of perfect foliage, he warns, and all the recent rain is to blame.

[CaptinCrunch]

The BIG reason for the early Fall color on the trees is water!! Last few years we were dry during Fall after a hot dry summer, most of the trees shed leaves since they are water starved and leaves dry out. This Fall with all the rain the trees were able to maintain their leaves in full, and with the early cool weather we get to see the beautiful color change during a normal transition to Fall.

[CaptinCrunch]

October Recap
Monthly mean 66.2 (-1.3) below monthly average
Total precip for the month 15.66 (+11.44) above average

October 31st.
69/52 (-2) below daliy average
1.14" of rain @ DFW

[Ntxw]

Yes the rains have allowed the trees to keep their full foliage. Also it helps that we went from a warm start to abrubtly cooler weather the second week of Oct. If we can keep it dry for awhile with cool nights should see some spectacular colors. Typically we see good Fall foliage during El Ninos with a quick warm to cold/wet preconditioning.

Past few years has been different, very dry with warmth passing into November before cool/dry settled in.

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro just left me a cliffhanger

[Ralph's Weather]

The 12z Euro just left me a cliffhanger

Agreed, has potential.

[Ralph's Weather]

A cool E TX fall day here with cloudy skies and temps in the 50s. As skies clear up tonight we should drop into the low to mid 40s tonight.