Texas Fall 2018

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DonWrk
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1221 Postby DonWrk » Thu Nov 01, 2018 5:42 pm

Alright, my wedding is on the 17th, time to start looking at some long range outlooks! It’s going to be outside as of now. I’ll take snow, ice, and just about anything else other than a cold rain.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1222 Postby TXWeatherMan » Thu Nov 01, 2018 7:05 pm

The FV3 shows a huge front in a little over a week but the GFS just has a few weak fronts. I wonder which one is right?
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1223 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Nov 01, 2018 7:09 pm

Tropical forcing is starting to tip the hand of forcing things colder by mid-Nov? By colder, I mean much colder.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1224 Postby Jarodm12 » Thu Nov 01, 2018 7:18 pm

I'm in Durant Oklahoma and in legitimately getting excited for the possibility of a snow storm next weekend and the following week. This is a welcome change that winter model watching has already begun for a while now it's been until late December . Anyway cross my fingers bring on the winter wx!
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1225 Postby Brent » Thu Nov 01, 2018 7:27 pm

TXWeatherMan wrote:The FV3 shows a huge front in a little over a week but the GFS just has a few weak fronts. I wonder which one is right?


the GFS has shown it on and off

I'm definitely intrigued in the timeframe starting around November 11-12th, the ensembles show a colder airmass too its just how cold? I really really want an early winter storm this year...
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1226 Postby Haris » Thu Nov 01, 2018 8:07 pm

weeklies suck
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1227 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 02, 2018 12:30 am

next weekend on the 0z GFS(November 10-11) has potential, snow in Oklahoma and parts of DFW near freezing after the precip ends

Pretty unsettled pattern in general

FV GFS has a big front earlier on Thursday/Friday next week
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1228 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Nov 02, 2018 7:21 am

Euro is a whole lot of Meh
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1229 Postby gboudx » Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:33 am

Are we already starting the predictable pattern of some wintry precip in the long range, only to be lost in the mid-range, then possibly come back in the short?
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1230 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:52 am

gboudx wrote:Are we already starting the predictable pattern of some wintry precip in the long range, only to be lost in the mid-range, then possibly come back in the short?


Yes! On cue since snow season in TX is technically November to March :D.

Really though the ensembles have hinted at some cold weather for some time now for early-mid month. First widespread 30s to come. Snow...well it technically can happen, but it likely won't, yet.

It has happened before in non-super El Ninos. Most recently 2014. Austin's greatest singular snowfall record occured in November 11, 1937 that still stands today over 9"!
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1231 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:59 am

Got down to 40 at my house this morning.
Ntxw wrote:
gboudx wrote:Are we already starting the predictable pattern of some wintry precip in the long range, only to be lost in the mid-range, then possibly come back in the short?


Yes! On cue since snow season in TX is technically November to March :D.

Really though the ensembles have hinted at some cold weather for some time now for early-mid month. First widespread 30s to come. Snow...well it technically can happen, but it likely won't, yet.

It has happened before in non-super El Ninos. Most recently 2014. Austin's greatest singular snowfall record occured in November 11, 1937 that still stands today over 9"!

Yep, a bit of snow I think up to an inch or so in spots followed by teens the next morning. That was a recurving typhoon induced --EPO NW flow event from what I remember.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1232 Postby Cerlin » Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:26 am

6z FV3-GFS has some sleet for NTX on the 14th, don’t know how confident i am in any models anymore though. :lol:
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1233 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 02, 2018 12:04 pm

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1234 Postby Cerlin » Fri Nov 02, 2018 12:06 pm


That’s my kind of November!
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1235 Postby Jarodm12 » Fri Nov 02, 2018 12:08 pm

I'm just gonna say right now models are locking in on a cold air intrusion over the next couple weeks with at least two chances of snow in our area, I am starting to buy the idea, and I don't think this winter is going to disappoint, let the model watching begin, I hope by mid month we are building snow men with our kids. :) God bless

Also to note the Fv3 locked in on this pattern first which I find very interesting
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1236 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Nov 02, 2018 12:18 pm

Wow, that 12z GFS is something for next week. Just miss out here in Ohio. This is kind of the first run it showed a snow storm for the Midwest. I'm crossing my fingers for a birthday miracle where the solution shifts a bit south and east and then amplifies(I can dream right), leaving me out of the WAA of course lol. Would also make it interesting for yall as well.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1237 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Nov 02, 2018 12:35 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Euro is a whole lot of Meh


Huge model flipping in the mid-range right now. Does the Euro flip back to not Meh at 12z?
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1238 Postby Haris » Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:46 pm

Arctic front on euro
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1239 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:55 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Euro is a whole lot of Meh


Huge model flipping in the mid-range right now. Does the Euro flip back to not Meh at 12z?


This is precisely why I emphasized to pay closer attention to the Ensembles earlier posts which advertised a pseudo -NAO and Pacific blocking. We should give the OP models some time to zone in on it.

Pretty decent confidence a cold snap of some sort is on the way.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018

#1240 Postby Jarodm12 » Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:57 pm

Euro Is laying down some snow all the way into Western parts of north Texas at 162 hours or so, this is getting exciting ! :)
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