Texas Fall 2018

[gpsnowman]

Starting to see some lightning off to the NW from my porch in Irving. Looking forward to an open window football Sunday tomorrow.

[South Texas Storms]

WEATHER MODELS COME 1 HOUR EARLIER STARTING TOMORROW!!!!!

I can't wait, love Standard Time!

[Brent]

that was a crazy 5 minutes... thought it was gonna hail. Right as I was leaving work too

[bubba hotep]

That line of storms delivered IMBY. Very impressive storm for a system that was basically ignored. Even FWD only had a 40% of showers with the afternoon package yesterday.

[weatherdude1108]

12z Euro's cold front is pretty stout. 60s falls quickly to 40s behind it and Friday struggles to get above 40. Hard freeze for the I-20 corridor. Frost and freezes goes further south as well.

I noticed the NWS forecast for my area for Friday and Friday night said a high of 57 with a low of 42. Brrr!

[Ntxw]

Believe it or not the GFS is still teasing us with snow nearby. A few more days of it and this thread will light up and late night model watching...it is way too early for this kind of torture!

[Haris]

3 ..... 2 ..... 1


THREAD EXPLODES!

[Brent]

[url]https://preview.ibb.co/e9xv3L/GFSSGP-prec-ptype-204.png [/url]


3 ..... 2 ..... 1


THREAD EXPLODES!

Was just going to post that so much potential

its almost under a week out...

[Brent]

[JayDT]

And i’m already beyond excited for this, and for this season as a whole.. Hopefully we get lucky more than a few times this winter

[Lagreeneyes03]

I just read Larry Cosgrove's winter outlook, and it's looking pretty warm for the rest of the year. Zonal and mild with no major arctic intrusions, especially this far south. Even mentioned record warmth for December.

[Brent]

I just read Larry Cosgrove's winter outlook, and it's looking pretty warm for the rest of the year. Zonal and mild with no major arctic intrusions, especially this far south. Even mentioned record warmth for December.

Lol I become more convinced that guy is out of touch...

no snow on the Euro yet through when the GFS has the snow, but the arctic front late Thursday into Friday remains

[Cpv17]

I’m more interested in what the eps shows more than one single run of the op.

[Brent]

I’m more interested in what the eps shows more than one single run of the op.

true indeed... not going to get caught up in the op runs too much.

[CaptinCrunch]

I only hug the 72 hrs out models, everything else is just a fun run. How about that line storms last night? Pretty good for a system that wasn't even on the radar a couple days ago. Had some pea size hail but not much of it, just gusty winds and heavy rain with a few good cracks of thunder.

Better last night than this morning, flight leaves out @ 11:10am from DFW.

[Ntxw]

Here is the latest back half of the EPS (Euro ensembles) which tells us pretty much the cold runs will continue at varying degrees.



The snow/ice storm maps are still around 200 hours out so it is mostly novelty that comes and goes also to varying degrees depending on run. I think the NWS is going a bit conservative for late week with temps, though justified given how far that is. It is likely though many will experience the first freeze if not a hard freeze, especially outside immediate urban areas. Should be a couple waves of cold.

Luckily we have the FV3 to compare the GFS towards. I think the FV3 has better skill than the GFS regarding temperatures, it has mid 40s for highs in NTX on Friday which seems more realistic than 50s on the GFS given both shows strong CAA.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Believe it or not the GFS is still teasing us with snow nearby. A few more days of it and this thread will light up and late night model watching...it is way too early for this kind of torture!

https://images2.imgbox.com/2f/30/W1Nv10cs_o.jpg

https://images2.imgbox.com/ee/f0/MYQTYOnd_o.jpg

Right on top of me. I’ll take it

[Haris]

.74" of rain last night here in Austin. Over performed imo!

[weatherdude1108]

.74" of rain last night here in Austin. Over performed imo!

My gauge shows a half inch. I didn't even here itl.

[Cpv17]

The models are all boring today