Texas Fall 2018

[Brent]

Oh Canada

[Ralph's Weather]

Oh Canada

http://i63.tinypic.com/2ronmag.png

It is at least consistent with the much further west trough next week. Likely consistently wrong but it is not just one run.

[Brent]

Euro is extremely cold next week but dry. Even Houston is down near freezing next Wednesday

[South Texas Storms]

Models are trending colder for next week, following the Euro. After the front pushes through in a few days, it's probably gonna stay pretty chilly for a while.

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS is active beyond D10 with cold air in place. Hmmm

[Brent]

12z GFS is active beyond D10 with cold air in place. Hmmm

Winter storm just before Thanksgiving Looks like this cold may have staying power?

[weatherdude1108]

First freeze on Thanksgiving morning to just north of Houston and SA!

[TheProfessor]

I will be back home for Thanksgiving. There have been hits in organic forecasting that there will be a big storm around that time frame. When I last saw it it was suggesting something inland as well. This means Ohio will probably get a storm since I won't be there. Would be great to have a storm in North Texas though, snow is always better when you experience it at home.

[Cerlin]

Praying that a storm doesn’t happen during thanksgiving because I will be out of town.

[TheProfessor]

Next week will also be something to keep an eye on for Texas. The Icon forms a cut off low that could make things interesting.

[Lagreeneyes03]

First freeze on Thanksgiving morning to just north of Houston and SA!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018110612/gfs_T2m_scus_53.png

The heat island graphic for DFW. Interesting.

[bubba hotep]

Next week will also be something to keep an eye on for Texas. The Icon forms a cut off low that could make things interesting.

12z Euro digs that energy more SW than previous runs but still ends up too progressive for most of Texas.

[Cpv17]

After this weeks storm system, the 12z Euro is dry

[TheProfessor]

Gives me a sleet storm with some snow on top. Would be a nice first storm for me, but I wouldn't mind it to dig more and deepen just a hair to the west. Unfortunately no support for anything less progressive on the Euro or GFS ensembles. However, Bernie Rayno seems to think the storm will be further west instead of off the coast like the GFS seems to think.

[weatherdude1108]

First freeze on Thanksgiving morning to just north of Houston and SA!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018110612/gfs_T2m_scus_53.png

The heat island graphic for DFW. Interesting.

I saw that.lol The models take into account the concrete jungle.

[TheProfessor]

Yeah that setup would be perfect for the heat island effect, which is usually more prominent in a high pressure environment. However, for some areas(specifically those that are more wooded and grassy) It's probably a bit overdone since heat island is usually at it's strongest in the evening, and if I'm remembering correctly from boundary layer, at it's least in the morning. It's also 384 hours out and with my luck it will be 65 and sunny.

[Cpv17]

Holy

[weatherdude1108]

That's impressive! California is torching at the same time.

[gpsnowman]

Those are some nice looking deep blues. Hopefully we see something similar in DJF.

[weatherdude1108]

QPF trending higher. That fog was a little scary this morning here! I've driven in fog before, but it would be a half mile visibility, then suddenly go down to 50 feet or less. The cars and I were going slow, because we couldn't see the approaching intersection until we were 20 feet from it to see if light was green or red! Once we got to front of intersection, could not see past the stop light! It was freaky. Looks like maybe a repeat tomorrow morning.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
242 PM CST Tue Nov 6 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Stratus continues to slowly mix out this afternoon near and just
east of I-35 and I-37. This has held temperatures down this
afternoon across this area, and may lead to acceleration of fog
development late this evening. 12Z guidance has come in more bullish
on dense fog development overnight and into Wednesday morning in
areas that experienced fog this morning. We have added mention of
dense fog into the forecast overnight and Wednesday morning along and
east of a Georgetown to Kerrville to Carrizo Springs line, including
the I-35 corridor. A Dense Fog Advisory could be needed as trends
develop overnight.

An elongated upper level trough axis will be in place across the
CONUS on Wednesday. An initial shortwave within the trough will send
a cold front southward into the northern CWA Wednesday afternoon. The
front will initially be slow moving, but accelerate southward
through the CWA Wednesday evening. Forcing appears meager and PoPs
will remain generally around 20-30% Wednesday and Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The aforementioned front will stall south of the CWA on Thursday.
Weak isentropic ascent will maintain low chances of light rain in the
forecast Thursday, along with clouds and cooler temperatures.

A stronger shortwave within the base of the trough across the
southern Rockies and southern Plains will send a stronger cold front
through the area Thursday night. Deeper forcing along and well behind
the front will allow for widespread rain to develop, and perhaps
isolated elevated thunderstorms, Thursday night into Friday morning.
Model guidance has trended upwards on QPF the past couple of runs,
with a band of 1-2 inches now indicated. There are some discrepancies
on where this band sets up, with the GFS tending to favor southern
areas of the CWA, NAM and Canadian northern areas, and ECMWF across
the central CWA. We have added mention in to the HWO for the
potential of minor flooding where these localized higher amounts
occur, and WPC maintains a portion of the CWA in a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall Thursday night into Friday.

Model guidance has also trended slower with rainfall ending north
to south during the day Friday and into Friday night, as forcing now
indicated to continue in the southwest flow aloft. We have held onto
likely PoPs of light rain through the day on Friday across the
southern half of the CWA and chance PoPs Friday night.

Much colder and breezy conditions will occur behind the front on
Friday. Highs only in the 50s are forecast, and potentially some
locations across the Hill Country struggling to make it out of the
upper 40s.

Cool conditions will continue Saturday as a coastal trough develops
and maintains a northeast flow over the eastern CWA and a dampening
shortwave aloft approaches. Highs only in the 50s are forecast with a
slight chance of light rain across southeastern areas. Warmer
conditions are forecast Sunday before another cold front moves
through the area early Monday, providing another chance of rain and
cooler temperatures.