Texas Fall 2018

[Cpv17]

The end of the 18z FV3 is crazy cold in our supply zone for cold air in western Canada

[Cpv17]

The 0z Euro is stupid cold

[Brent]

Um the euro has snow in DFW Monday night

[Haris]

NEW EURO GUYS! Good night lol

[Brent]

[Cpv17]

Um the euro has snow in DFW Monday night

Look at the trough. Look how much farther sw it digs from previous runs (almost like a McFarland sig)..if it can keep digging more sw then look out!!

[Brent]

Um the euro has snow in DFW Monday night

Look at the trough. Look how much farther sw it digs from previous runs (almost like a McFarland sig)..if it can keep digging more sw then look out!!

when the 500 mb maps first showed up I thought it was a snowy setup

also a hard freeze well down into the 20s after that

[Cpv17]

Um the euro has snow in DFW Monday night

Look at the trough. Look how much farther sw it digs from previous runs (almost like a McFarland sig)..if it can keep digging more sw then look out!!

when the 500 mb maps first showed up I thought it was a snowy setup

also a hard freeze well down into the 20s after that

Yep! It’s still about 5-7 days out so it still could change to an even a better setup.

[Brent]

Look at the trough. Look how much farther sw it digs from previous runs (almost like a McFarland sig)..if it can keep digging more sw then look out!!

when the 500 mb maps first showed up I thought it was a snowy setup

also a hard freeze well down into the 20s after that

Yep! It’s still about 5-7 days out so it still could change to an even a better setup.

there's over a foot of snow in SW MO this run... its that close

[Ntxw]

Classic case going on of showing it long range, losing it by shifting east, then bringing it back as event gets closer.

[Jarodm12]

Classic case going on of showing it long range, losing it by shifting east, then bringing it back as event gets closer.

I have watched this forum excitedly for many years and particularly your posts so I put alot of confidence and respect in your thoughts. My question is that I live in Durant Oklahoma and the models are showing the event to be about six days away what is the likely hood that I see snow here by Tuesday or do you think there will be any at all? Thanks in advance have a good morning brother

[Ntxw]

Classic case going on of showing it long range, losing it by shifting east, then bringing it back as event gets closer.

I have watched this forum excitedly for many years and particularly your posts so I put alot of confidence and respect in your thoughts. My question is that I live in Durant Oklahoma and the models are showing the event to be about six days away what is the likely hood that I see snow here by Tuesday or do you think there will be any at all? Thanks in advance have a good morning brother

I would not be surprised if you saw some flakes. It will get very cold for November yet still. Keep watching the digging 500mb shortwave. If it trends stronger and more digging then we got something.

[Ntxw]

To illustrate the shifting trend of the digging S/W and trough. This makes a big difference for a storm, and for where cold air spills. If we get a partial or phasing from the northern branch, this will be a significant storm from Texas/Oklahoma and to the East Coast with snow on the backside.






We have seen a set up like this before, on a similar date. November 13, 1976.

[weatherdude1108]

On the local weather this morning, they mentioned our first freeze for next Wednesday. That would be really early for us!

[CaptinCrunch]

76-77 analog showing up as we move towards the middle of November thru mid December.

If you haven't stocked up on firewood yet? What are you waiting for...

[CaptinCrunch]

@weatherdude, 76-77 first freeze came mid November so we are on the right track.

Thanksgiving 93'

Could be.......

[Ralph's Weather]

To illustrate the shifting trend of the digging S/W and trough. This makes a big difference for a storm, and for where cold air spills. If we get a partial or phasing from the northern branch, this will be a significant storm from Texas/Oklahoma and to the East Coast with snow on the backside.

https://images2.imgbox.com/6a/68/hmDRUiyJ_o.gif

https://images2.imgbox.com/9a/bc/tYe56E1h_o.gif


We have seen a set up like this before, on a similar date. November 13, 1976.

Starting to look like a massive coup for the Canadian. It usually loses but it when wins it can win big.

[northjaxpro]

12Z GFS is hinting at a shortwave traversing the base of a deepening upper trough across Northern Texas beginning in 138 hours and moving through the region through 144 hours. Cold 1043 mb High on this particular run pushing down the Lee side of the Rockies during this period. Possible brief wintry precip event over North TX just to highlight this possibility by GFS.

[northjaxpro]

To illustrate the shifting trend of the digging S/W and trough. This makes a big difference for a storm, and for where cold air spills. If we get a partial or phasing from the northern branch, this will be a significant storm from Texas/Oklahoma and to the East Coast with snow on the backside.


We have seen a set up like this before, on a similar date. November 13, 1976.

I agree with you Ntxw. We just have to wait and see if we can get phasing. The potential is definitely plausible!

[gboudx]

:uarrow: 76-77 analog showing up as we move towards the middle of November thru mid December.

If you haven't stocked up on firewood yet? What are you waiting for...

I have 1/2 cord of well seasoned oak ready to burn. Bring it.