#1478 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:50 am
Drier air is filtering in as cold air advection continue throughout the day. I don't see much of a chance of breaks in the clouds throughout the weekend, but we likely will have a 36 hour break in any measureable rainfall before a Coastal Low develops near Brownsville Saturday afternoon/evening and begins to move up the Texas Gulf Coast into Sunday/early Monday as the very strong Artic Front marches across Texas and off the Coast early Tuesday Morning.
Saturday night into Sunday looks wet and potentially stormy with some elevated low topped thunderstorms possible along and N of a warm front close to the Coast. Thunderstorms could become more numerous along that warm frontal boundary across our Coastal tier of Counties and Offshore. Gale Warnings will continue into tomorrow morning across the offshore waters with wind advisories along the Coast. The remain some uncertainty in the exact track of that Coastal Low, so higher rainfall totals of near 2 inches + are possible where the heaviest rainfall develop and storms may train.
Sunday into Monday night may bring a bout of heavy snow across the Panhandle and lighter amounts possible for locations on East toward N Central Texas. The may be a brief shot of rain/snow mix across the Dallas/Ft Worth Metroplex into the Piney Woods of NE Texas before much drier Artic air arrives Monday ending all rain chance by Tuesday.
Very cold temperatures are expected for mid November early to mid next week. The shot of cold modified Artic Air is rather deep and freezing temperatures are expected up to 850mb or about a mile up. Early morning low temperature reading may flirt with the upper 20's to low 30's Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday. The overnight ECMWF suggested a chilly 32F for IAH and upper 20's in Conroe. I will not be surprised to see a light freeze and possibly frost Wednesday morning and possibly Thursday morning IF we get completely clear skies across the Region. The old sub tropical jet may have an area of high to mid levels clouds streaming across the Area that could prevent temperatures from fully bottoming out in ideal radiational cooling. Stay Tuned!
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