SPAC: INVEST 95P

[Nancy Smar]

95P INVEST 181109 1200 4.0S 155.2E SHEM 15 0

[Nancy Smar]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 120859 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD02F CENTRE [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 06.2S
162.2E AT 120900 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI 8
IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS SCATTERED TO THE EAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC
WITH POOR ORGANISATION. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA.
SYSTEM LIES EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT IN A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.