WPAC: USAGI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.3N 150.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 148.5E, APPROXIMATELY 204
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 150316Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 98C IN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW. A RECENT PARTIAL
ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING AREA
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WESTERN TRAJECTORY, HOWEVER DIFFER IN
TIMING AND INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

GFS continues to strengthen this significantly before a P.I landfall while NAVGEM and EURO is gradually to slow.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Given how warm and favorable the untapped waters to the east of Visayas and Mindanao, this could actually happen. Last year, conditions were too unfavorable for anything major intensity-wise. We know the surprises 2018 brought us. This could be serious if this comes into fruition.

[vortextracker]

https://imgur.com/zxpyUoU



https://imgur.com/7NXnJhf

Both Global models see dry air about in the PI sea. It will be interesting to see if there's any shear also over the next few
days.

[Hayabusa]

This could at least be given a TC warning by JMA and JTWC before a Philippines landfall (currently not sure how strong would it be), I said this some posts back but when was the last time since TC records began an invest way well into the CPAC crossing and developing into a tropical cyclone meriting a TC warning over the WPAC and threatening an Asian country? Could this be a first? Any experts know the answer?

[euro6208]

GFS and EURO intensifies this significantly in the South China Sea.

[vortextracker]

Higher the divergence of the winds at altitude, the more it favors the development of a cyclone.
very strong divergence + 30
strong divergence + 20 -
moderate divergence +10
weak divergence +5



https://imgur.com/nxrG9dg



https://imgur.com/clMomDS

Convergence potential areas where the development of a cyclonic system can occur.
Strong convergence + 20 -
Moderate convergence +10 -
Weak convergence +5

Just so so atm.for 98C currently.

[Hayabusa]

HWRF 15/18z ATCF, a 70 kt storm before a Philippines landfall?

Code: Select all

CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 000,  72N, 1462E,  21, 1005, XX,  34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000,  -99,  -99,  73,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 003,  72N, 1462E,  20, 1006, XX,  34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000,  -99,  -99,  24,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 006,  73N, 1462E,  33, 1007, XX,  34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000,  -99,  -99,  45,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 009,  71N, 1460E,  30, 1006, XX,  34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000,  -99,  -99,  60,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 012,  74N, 1456E,  28, 1004, XX,  34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000,  -99,  -99,  75,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 015,  74N, 1453E,  31, 1004, XX,  34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000,  -99,  -99,  58,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 018,  73N, 1451E,  41, 1005, XX,  34, NEQ, 0000, 0042, 0000, 0000,  -99,  -99,  25,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 021,  73N, 1448E,  40, 1005, XX,  34, NEQ, 0026, 0000, 0000, 0011,  -99,  -99,   9,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 024,  79N, 1441E,  35, 1004, XX,  34, NEQ, 0026, 0000, 0000, 0000,  -99,  -99,  22,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 027,  76N, 1437E,  28, 1004, XX,  34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000,  -99,  -99, 145,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 030,  71N, 1436E,  27, 1007, XX,  34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000,  -99,  -99, 121,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 033,  72N, 1435E,  29, 1006, XX,  34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000,  -99,  -99, 116,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 036,  73N, 1429E,  40, 1004, XX,  34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0122,  -99,  -99, 116,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 039,  75N, 1421E,  33, 1003, XX,  34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000,  -99,  -99, 101,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 042,  72N, 1411E,  31, 1005, XX,  34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000,  -99,  -99,  94,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 045,  76N, 1405E,  37, 1004, XX,  34, NEQ, 0064, 0000, 0000, 0000,  -99,  -99,  62,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 048,  76N, 1395E,  41,  998, XX,  34, NEQ, 0021, 0000, 0000, 0035, 1002,   14,  29,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 051,  71N, 1388E,  38,  997, XX,  34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0019, 0068, 1001,   12,   8,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 054,  68N, 1384E,  39,  998, XX,  34, NEQ, 0070, 0000, 0000, 0076, 1006,   62,   9,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 057,  67N, 1380E,  40,  997, XX,  34, NEQ, 0030, 0029, 0000, 0058, 1005,   35,  19,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 060,  67N, 1374E,  42,  995, XX,  34, NEQ, 0055, 0043, 0052, 0109, 1003,   46,  33,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 063,  68N, 1370E,  49,  992, XX,  34, NEQ, 0062, 0040, 0045, 0109, 1004,   65,  19,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 066,  70N, 1363E,  57,  993, XX,  34, NEQ, 0062, 0042, 0064, 0121,  -99,  -99,  17,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 066,  70N, 1363E,  57,  993, XX,  50, NEQ, 0000, 0021, 0000, 0000,  -99,  -99,  17,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 069,  70N, 1356E,  71,  987, XX,  34, NEQ, 0110, 0049, 0067, 0129,  -99,  -99,  13,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 069,  70N, 1356E,  71,  987, XX,  50, NEQ, 0020, 0026, 0018, 0000,  -99,  -99,  13,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 069,  70N, 1356E,  71,  987, XX,  64, NEQ, 0014, 0016, 0000, 0000,  -99,  -99,  13,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 072,  73N, 1348E,  62,  983, XX,  34, NEQ, 0102, 0058, 0132, 0208,  999,   34,  25,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 072,  73N, 1348E,  62,  983, XX,  50, NEQ, 0033, 0031, 0000, 0018,  999,   34,  25,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 075,  75N, 1342E,  80,  979, XX,  34, NEQ, 0139, 0071, 0087, 0181, 1003,   70,  13,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 075,  75N, 1342E,  80,  979, XX,  50, NEQ, 0023, 0030, 0037, 0024, 1003,   70,  13,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 075,  75N, 1342E,  80,  979, XX,  64, NEQ, 0018, 0018, 0000, 0000, 1003,   70,  13,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 078,  81N, 1335E,  92,  979, XX,  34, NEQ, 0127, 0062, 0160, 0147,  999,   30,  22,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 078,  81N, 1335E,  92,  979, XX,  50, NEQ, 0043, 0043, 0000, 0029,  999,   30,  22,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 078,  81N, 1335E,  92,  979, XX,  64, NEQ, 0035, 0033, 0000, 0000,  999,   30,  22,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 081,  83N, 1322E,  69,  980, XX,  34, NEQ, 0125, 0111, 0127, 0123, 1000,   39,  21,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 081,  83N, 1322E,  69,  980, XX,  50, NEQ, 0028, 0049, 0086, 0036, 1000,   39,  21,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 081,  83N, 1322E,  69,  980, XX,  64, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0026, 1000,   39,  21,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 084,  82N, 1313E,  83,  967, XX,  34, NEQ, 0192, 0121, 0130, 0122,  999,   48,  18,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 084,  82N, 1313E,  83,  967, XX,  50, NEQ, 0034, 0047, 0076, 0029,  999,   48,  18,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 084,  82N, 1313E,  83,  967, XX,  64, NEQ, 0028, 0027, 0015, 0025,  999,   48,  18,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 087,  83N, 1308E,  82,  971, XX,  34, NEQ, 0173, 0112, 0104, 0168,  999,   52,  18,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 087,  83N, 1308E,  82,  971, XX,  50, NEQ, 0048, 0062, 0059, 0033,  999,   52,  18,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 087,  83N, 1308E,  82,  971, XX,  64, NEQ, 0028, 0026, 0015, 0000,  999,   52,  18,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 090,  88N, 1303E,  66,  977, XX,  34, NEQ, 0141, 0101, 0138, 0148, 1001,   55,  36,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 090,  88N, 1303E,  66,  977, XX,  50, NEQ, 0074, 0056, 0065, 0091, 1001,   55,  36,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 090,  88N, 1303E,  66,  977, XX,  64, NEQ, 0000, 0038, 0000, 0000, 1001,   55,  36,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 093,  91N, 1295E,  88,  977, XX,  34, NEQ, 0120, 0103, 0146, 0164,  -99,  -99,  17,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 093,  91N, 1295E,  88,  977, XX,  50, NEQ, 0058, 0052, 0097, 0105,  -99,  -99,  17,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 093,  91N, 1295E,  88,  977, XX,  64, NEQ, 0038, 0034, 0031, 0000,  -99,  -99,  17,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 096,  93N, 1283E,  61,  977, XX,  34, NEQ, 0171, 0133, 0109, 0176,  -99,  -99,  17,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 096,  93N, 1283E,  61,  977, XX,  50, NEQ, 0068, 0068, 0031, 0142,  -99,  -99,  17,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 099,  94N, 1276E,  78,  975, XX,  34, NEQ, 0127, 0091, 0104, 0168, 1003,   87,  30,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 099,  94N, 1276E,  78,  975, XX,  50, NEQ, 0049, 0056, 0054, 0032, 1003,   87,  30,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 099,  94N, 1276E,  78,  975, XX,  64, NEQ, 0043, 0041, 0019, 0000, 1003,   87,  30,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 102,  98N, 1270E,  79,  978, XX,  34, NEQ, 0089, 0096, 0129, 0174,  -99,  -99,  17,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 102,  98N, 1270E,  79,  978, XX,  50, NEQ, 0056, 0058, 0065, 0041,  -99,  -99,  17,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 102,  98N, 1270E,  79,  978, XX,  64, NEQ, 0034, 0032, 0000, 0000,  -99,  -99,  17,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 105, 101N, 1263E,  71,  980, XX,  34, NEQ, 0231, 0099, 0129, 0212, 1004,   71,  29,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 105, 101N, 1263E,  71,  980, XX,  50, NEQ, 0056, 0052, 0046, 0037, 1004,   71,  29,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 105, 101N, 1263E,  71,  980, XX,  64, NEQ, 0040, 0030, 0000, 0000, 1004,   71,  29,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 108, 104N, 1255E,  55,  982, XX,  34, NEQ, 0088, 0083, 0137, 0177, 1002,   79,  18,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 108, 104N, 1255E,  55,  982, XX,  50, NEQ, 0043, 0044, 0000, 0042, 1002,   79,  18,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 111, 105N, 1246E,  56,  982, XX,  34, NEQ, 0081, 0141, 0105, 0108,  -99,  -99,  16,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 111, 105N, 1246E,  56,  982, XX,  50, NEQ, 0042, 0024, 0026, 0034,  -99,  -99,  16,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 114, 105N, 1238E,  57,  984, XX,  34, NEQ, 0094, 0069, 0079, 0220, 1000,   43,  15,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 114, 105N, 1238E,  57,  984, XX,  50, NEQ, 0032, 0028, 0014, 0036, 1000,   43,  15,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 117, 106N, 1230E,  58,  986, XX,  34, NEQ, 0090, 0078, 0107, 0200, 1006,   86,  29,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 117, 106N, 1230E,  58,  986, XX,  50, NEQ, 0038, 0035, 0022, 0141, 1006,   86,  29,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 120, 107N, 1221E,  65,  984, XX,  34, NEQ, 0114, 0068, 0091, 0178,  -99,  -99,  45,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 120, 107N, 1221E,  65,  984, XX,  50, NEQ, 0052, 0032, 0044, 0036,  -99,  -99,  45,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 120, 107N, 1221E,  65,  984, XX,  64, NEQ, 0046, 0000, 0000, 0000,  -99,  -99,  45,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 123, 108N, 1212E,  70,  984, XX,  34, NEQ, 0128, 0071, 0084, 0171,  -99,  -99,  32,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 123, 108N, 1212E,  70,  984, XX,  50, NEQ, 0043, 0033, 0033, 0039,  -99,  -99,  32,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 123, 108N, 1212E,  70,  984, XX,  64, NEQ, 0036, 0024, 0000, 0000,  -99,  -99,  32,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 126, 108N, 1204E,  66,  983, XX,  34, NEQ, 0164, 0076, 0107, 0175,  -99,  -99,  18,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 126, 108N, 1204E,  66,  983, XX,  50, NEQ, 0040, 0031, 0037, 0028,  -99,  -99,  18,   0
CP, 98, 2018111518, 03, HWRF, 126, 108N, 1204E,  66,  983, XX,  64, NEQ, 0000, 0021, 0000, 0000,  -99,  -99,  18,   0

[vortextracker]

Ens clusters are predominantly thinking a weak +1000 mb disturbance on the run.

https://imgur.com/206HRn7



https://imgur.com/B5cO39T

[euro6208]

TXPQ28 KNES 152141
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98C)

B. 15/2030Z

C. 8.1N

D. 146.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. >2/10 BANDING FOR A DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[euro6208]

98C INVEST 181116 0000 7.4N 145.6E CPAC 20 1005

[vortextracker]

TXPQ28 KNES 152141
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98C)

B. 15/2030Z

C. 8.1N

D. 146.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. >2/10 BANDING FOR A DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

Until anything forms, and that's a big if. Nothing to see here,other than just hype.

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 160249

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98C (S OF GUAM)

B. 16/0230Z

C. 9.04N

D. 144.12E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

Myles Davis

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 160422
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
222 PM ChST Fri Nov 16 2018

PMZ161-171-170400-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
222 PM ChST Fri Nov 16 2018

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN YAP STATE...

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED EAST OF YAP NEAR 8.8N AND 145.6E.

THIS IS ABOUT...

140 MILES NORTHWEST OF SATAWAL
75 MILES EAST OF FARAULEP
150 MILES NORTHEAST OF WOLEAI
350 MILES EAST OF FAIS
415 MILES EAST OF ULITHI
515 MILES EAST OF YAP AND
775 MILES EAST OF KOROR

THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
YAP STATE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN APPROACH THE REPUBLIC OF
PALAU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT ON THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH
SUNDAY BUT IT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

AN AREA OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE IS SEEN WEST OF THE CENTER. THIS AREA
WILL REACH FAIS AND ULITHI ON SATURDAY MORNING...AND YAP AND NGULU
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGER AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RELATED TO THE MONSOON WINDS SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE NEAR FARAULEP AND
WOLEAI THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SAME AREA WILL APPROACH PALAU SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE HEAVY SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH.

SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET CAN BUILD QUICKLY TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FEET DURING
GUSTY CONDITIONS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY SMALL BOAT ACROSS YAP STATE
SHOULD BE POSTPONED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. TRAVEL BY SMALL BOAT ACROSS
PALAU SHOULD BE POSTPONED STARTING SATURDAY.

RESIDENTS OF YAP STATE AND PALAU SHOULD MONITOR THIS DISTURBANCE AND
HEED THE INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES
ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WFO GUAM WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUM/

$$

CHAN

[euro6208]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 7.0N 138.0E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 17.11.2018 7.0N 138.0E WEAK

00UTC 18.11.2018 6.8N 135.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 18.11.2018 7.4N 133.4E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 19.11.2018 8.9N 131.1E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.11.2018 10.5N 129.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 20.11.2018 11.4N 126.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 20.11.2018 11.7N 124.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.11.2018 12.0N 121.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.11.2018 12.6N 117.7E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 22.11.2018 13.5N 114.2E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[doomhaMwx]

This could at least be given a TC warning by JMA and JTWC before a Philippines landfall (currently not sure how strong would it be), I said this some posts back but when was the last time since TC records began an invest way well into the CPAC crossing and developing into a tropical cyclone meriting a TC warning over the WPAC and threatening an Asian country? Could this be a first? Any experts know the answer?

https://i.imgur.com/YIaqjzg.png
https://i.imgur.com/UlN6WaS.png

There's CPAC-born TS Winona in January 1989 which appears to have originated farther east than 98C and traveled all the way into the central Philippines. It was only a TD/LPA when it reached the country though.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.8N 148.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 145.6E, APPROXIMATELY 361
NM SOUTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 160001Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH MULTIPLE SPINNERS REVOLVING AROUND A CENTROID WHERE
THE CURRENT LOCATION IS BASED ON AND WHERE FLARING CONVECTION HAVE
PERSISTED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS AGREE THAT 98C WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE WEST WITH GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 48-72HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

Last 2 diagnostic comparison. Mixed signals however, HWRF is stronger has it reaching Cat 4.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

PAGASA now warning on 98C. Now a TC, should become Samuel when it crosses 135°E.

[vortextracker]

https://imgur.com/58b88bC


https://imgur.com/BzK6Arc
looks a lower to-mid vort atm imo, upperlevels likely has nothing.