Texas Fall 2018

[Cpv17]

Want to see another day of model runs but if Strat PV holds tight then MJO might be forcing a warm up in 2nd week of December.

Well earlier on a lot of people were saying that December would be a warm month and the real winter wouldn’t get here till January.

[CaptinCrunch]

Saturday will be very warm considering the long stretch of below average temperatures. We should be pushing 80, but then the pendulum swings back as we wont get much above the mid 50's Sunday thru Wednesday, and I only see highs in the lower 60's after that.

Mid December is when we should start seeing more of a winter pattern so just enjoy the ride.

[Brent]

GFS still looks interesting at times towards the end of the first week in December but is pushing 80 next weekend to open December

the Euro has a good rain event again at least but is also pretty warm to start December

Want to see another day of model runs but if Strat PV holds tight then MJO might be forcing a warm up in 2nd week of December.

Well earlier on a lot of people were saying that December would be a warm month and the real winter wouldn’t get here till January.

but I thought we were gonna get a good pattern to open December shrugs... though I'm still not sure the models even know what is going on and I wouldn't be surprised if the warmth doesnt verify. Not like theres been any prolonged warmth in weeks around here

[Cpv17]

The 06z FV3 has a winter storm for the ages in the long range. Talk about some model stuff right there

[Ntxw]

Hope you all had a good Thanksgivings! I see the angst in wanting snow, after one of the chilliest Novembers is not enough. Of course it doesn't mean much if it doesn't snow!

Some models are teasing us but nothing definitive yet. Still need to see consistently on something digging in the southwest into northern Mexico.

[hamburgerman7070]

Hope you all had a good Thanksgivings! I see the angst in wanting snow, after one of the chilliest Novembers is not enough. Of course it doesn't mean much if it doesn't snow!

Some models are teasing us but nothing definitive yet. Still need to see consistently on something digging in the southwest into northern Mexico.

Ntxw, it was a little strange to see such a cold november.
It makes us think that we are in the middle of winter lol. Do you think we will be in a more favorable setup when or if the EPO goes negative for us? Is that the main thing hurting us in particular? Just curious. I guess technically winter hasnt even started yet, especially since we still have shorter wavelengths.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like the last week of November will be continuation of this bore pattern. However, it looks like change is on the way with another big WWB in the Pacific, looks similar to what we saw in early October, and a wet pattern returning to Texas.

850 Zonal (Black Box was during the dry period, notice the rapid change in the Green Box)



The Euro continues to show a nice system for next weekend, notice the higher heights across the GL. This system should be able to kick across Texas without getting sheared out in the the base of a GL trough (the pattern that has plagued us most all of Nov).

What we have been dealing with:



What the 00z Euro is showing:

[Ntxw]

Hope you all had a good Thanksgivings! I see the angst in wanting snow, after one of the chilliest Novembers is not enough. Of course it doesn't mean much if it doesn't snow!

Some models are teasing us but nothing definitive yet. Still need to see consistently on something digging in the southwest into northern Mexico.

Ntxw, it was a little strange to see such a cold november.
It makes us think that we are in the middle of winter lol. Do you think we will be in a more favorable setup when or if the EPO goes negative for us? Is that the main thing hurting us in particular? Just curious. I guess technically winter hasnt even started yet, especially since we still have shorter wavelengths.

I still think our best chances is the first half of December. The second half to me doesn't really look that favorable for snow. -EPO can bring cold but that is more of a Nina-esque type pattern with a N-pacific high. We'll have to wait and see.

[CaptinCrunch]

When we look at the analogs for the years we are comparing this year too, they all had an average to slightly above average December as far as temps go.

Now even with average December temperatures we can and have seen winter precipitation. Dont panic if models look a little warm or dry, December is usually on dry side anyway.

Get out and enjoy today, tomorrow we can sit by the fireplace, watch football and put up the Christmas decorations.

[Ntxw]

Looks like the last week of November will be continuation of this bore pattern. However, it looks like change is on the way with another big WWB in the Pacific, looks similar to what we saw in early October, and a wet pattern returning to Texas.

850 Zonal (Black Box was during the dry period, notice the rapid change in the Green Box)

https://image.ibb.co/j9FZAV/850zonal.png

The Euro continues to show a nice system for next weekend, notice the higher heights across the GL. This system should be able to kick across Texas without getting sheared out in the the base of a GL trough (the pattern that has plagued us most all of Nov).

What we have been dealing with:

https://image.ibb.co/dKbkHA/Nov-500mb.png

What the 00z Euro is showing:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018112400/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_8.png

We should see the -NAO manifest heights over the east coast around this time. It's likely our best shot with a better Pacific. Day 10-15 low heights recover in Arctic and we get an Alaskan Low from the EPS, a pattern that is recipe for a Texas Torch in the cold months. Some warm moderation risks middle December until the WWB manifests and changes the Pacific once again a bit after that. Zonal winds and tropical convection can lag WWBs some.

[bubba hotep]

Don't be surprised if models trend warmer for the 1st part of Dec, unless we can get some help from the Strat PV. The Euro has the MJO racing around to P3 which is a warm look in +ENSO Decembers.





Also, if the -NAO is transit and we go back positive, then that is a strong warm signal in Dec for Texas. I mentioned yesterday that a -NAO isn't necessarily a strong cold signal for Texas in Dec but +NAO is pretty strongly warm.

[bubba hotep]

One thing is for sure, the Euro EPS looks wet for DFW during the 1st week of Dec with a mean of nearly 2" and a pretty wet cluster that is 3"+.

[hamburgerman7070]

Don't be surprised if models trend warmer for the 1st part of Dec, unless we can get some help from the Strat PV. The Euro has the MJO racing around to P3 which is a warm look in +ENSO Decembers.

https://image.ibb.co/bLpTnA/ECMF-112418.gif

https://image.ibb.co/i6TXEq/MJO-Comp.png

Also, if the -NAO is transit and we go back positive, then that is a strong warm signal in Dec for Texas. I mentioned yesterday that a -NAO isn't necessarily a strong cold signal for Texas in Dec but +NAO is pretty strongly warm.

https://image.ibb.co/nDAOLV/4indices.png

Bubba, so how will we be able to get into a colder setup,at least one good enough for winter weather, since like ntxw alluded to, the -nao benefits most to our east and since a -epo is more prevalent in niñas? Will be from mjo in certain cycles when wavengths lengthen, or get perhaps a strat warming event? Just try to figure it out

[South Texas Storms]

18z GFS shows pretty much all of TX getting less than 0.50 inch of rain over the next 2 weeks.

[rwfromkansas]

I notice that nobody is talking about the first week in December as being good for a winter storm anymore. Starting to push things back again....like previous years.

[Ntxw]

I notice that nobody is talking about the first week in December as being good for a winter storm anymore. Starting to push things back again....like previous years.

I made a post earlier the first half of December is still likely our best shot. Nothing consistent yet snowstorm wise, we've had a few snazzy runs of models showing something but it hasn't stuck. They consistently change and are different between models where and how the SW digs in about a week or so. We still have a whole week of November to get through before December is even here and then we get into the first week of December. That is 7-14 days away. A lot can happen between now and then.

[Haris]

Everyday feels like an eternity.... Why is it so hard to get snow down here

[amawea]

I notice that nobody is talking about the first week in December as being good for a winter storm anymore. Starting to push things back again....like previous years.

Yeah, a good snow storm is alwaysn 2 weeks out.

[rwfromkansas]

In any event, I am very confident this is the year. If it's March and no snow yet well...then I will be looking for rural property so I can actually use a home snowmaking machine next winter without risking an HOA fine. lol

[Brent]

Everyday feels like an eternity.... Why is it so hard to get snow down here

And yall had more snow than us last year

In any event, I am very confident this is the year. If it's March and no snow yet well...then I will be looking for rural property so I can actually use a home snowmaking machine next winter without risking an HOA fine. lol

Yeah if this winter doesnt produce I'll probably give up on Dallas snow lol