ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: ENSO Updates
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
cycloneye wrote: https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... 4834995200
His graphs are becoming confusing at this point. When it looked like there was no El Nino/El Nino fail at the beginning of the summer, his graphs showed El Nino conditions. Now with the weeklies near moderate readings they're showing the opposite.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:cycloneye wrote: https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... 4834995200
His graphs are becoming confusing at this point. When it looked like there was no El Nino/El Nino fail at the beginning of the summer, his graphs showed El Nino conditions. Now with the weeklies near moderate readings they're showing the opposite.
I have not become of MJ Ventrice after this season, he seems to like to go against the tide
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Re: ENSO Updates
On today's update:
Nino 3.4 down to +0.7C
Nino 4 remains at +0.9C
Nino 1+2 down to +0.6C
Nino 3.4 down to +0.7C
Nino 4 remains at +0.9C
Nino 1+2 down to +0.6C
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Re: ENSO Updates
The balance between Webb and Ventrice is interesting. What happens is often somewhere in the middle, which I think indicates a weak to moderate el nino over winter, at least.
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- AnnularCane
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Re: ENSO Updates
NDG wrote:Kingarabian wrote:cycloneye wrote: https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... 4834995200
His graphs are becoming confusing at this point. When it looked like there was no El Nino/El Nino fail at the beginning of the summer, his graphs showed El Nino conditions. Now with the weeklies near moderate readings they're showing the opposite.
I have not become of MJ Ventrice after this season, he seems to like to go against the tide
I think I've been a little skeptical after last season.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
NDG wrote:On today's update:
Nino 3.4 down to +0.7C
Nino 4 remains at +0.9C
Nino 1+2 down to +0.6C
Text of update.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
StruThiO wrote:Woah!
[url]https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1063893775163031559[url]
Holy WWB... That's one of the largest WWB's i've seen on this Ryan Maue graphic. If it materializes, then we wont see a cold pool form through January, and if we get the seasonal WWB during February, there will be talks about a double dip warm-Enso/El Nino.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Here it comes.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: ENSO Updates
More wild jumping by Nino 3.4 going to 1.3C this week.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
WWB is verifying on the GFS Hovmoller
This will at least maintain the warm OHC through January if not warm it up further.
This will at least maintain the warm OHC through January if not warm it up further.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
Text of CPC update of 11/26/18.Looks like a a broadbase El Niño instead of modoki if this keeps up.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates
Hi fellow ENSO geeks Our current WWB isn't turning out as strong as once thought. Seems the WWB event back in late September - early October had more punch, particularly related to creating west-pacific originated kelvin wave and hence contributing to the current subsurface warming that we are seeing?
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Hunabku wrote:Hi fellow ENSO geeks Our current WWB isn't turning out as strong as once thought. Seems the WWB event back in late September - early October had more punch, particularly related to creating west-pacific originated kelvin wave and hence contributing to the current subsurface warming that we are seeing?
[url]https://ncics.org/pub/mjo/v2/hov/uwnd850.orig.eqtr.png[url]
Certainly not as strong as advertised by the models last week. But there should be enough westerly winds to keep the subsurface sufficiently warm in the short term.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
Niño 3.4 down from +1.3C last week to +1.2C this week.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates
ONI for SON came in at +0.7C. Since 1950 (current ONI starts then) there has never been a year with SON at least 0.7C that did not get the full 5 months. Pretty much locked this will be.
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Re: ENSO Updates
This map shows it all, El Nino is here, for those that doubted it
The biggest news from the current pattern is the much needed rainy pattern across CA since about Thanksgiving, which the Nat'l News media has not pass on the news to the rest of the country, it makes you wonder why.
The biggest news from the current pattern is the much needed rainy pattern across CA since about Thanksgiving, which the Nat'l News media has not pass on the news to the rest of the country, it makes you wonder why.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Strong trade burst over the dateline coming up on the GFS:
Let's see if it will trigger an up-welling Kelvin wave.
Let's see if it will trigger an up-welling Kelvin wave.
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