Texas Winter 2018-2019
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9787
- Age: 61
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: South Austin, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Based on what I am reading online from the so-called experts, it appears that we (Texas) are in for a mild period from the middle of December until New Years. But then it's looking like the Arctic hammer may drop and January could be a wild one. We shall see.
3 likes
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
- gboudx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4047
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
- Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Gosh I hope that doesn't mean another warm Christmas. As of now, I'm simply dreaming of a cool Christmas, forget it being white.
2 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37143
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Portastorm wrote:Based on what I am reading online from the so-called experts, it appears that we (Texas) are in for a mild period from the middle of December until New Years. But then it's looking like the Arctic hammer may drop and January could be a wild one. We shall see.
boo
0 likes
#neversummer
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9787
- Age: 61
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: South Austin, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Brent wrote:Portastorm wrote:Based on what I am reading online from the so-called experts, it appears that we (Texas) are in for a mild period from the middle of December until New Years. But then it's looking like the Arctic hammer may drop and January could be a wild one. We shall see.
boo
But Brent, wouldn't you trade a mild two weeks in December for a rocking-and-rolling January and February?
4 likes
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Portastorm wrote:Brent wrote:Portastorm wrote:Based on what I am reading online from the so-called experts, it appears that we (Texas) are in for a mild period from the middle of December until New Years. But then it's looking like the Arctic hammer may drop and January could be a wild one. We shall see.
boo
But Brent, wouldn't you trade a mild two weeks in December for a rocking-and-rolling January and February?
I get what Brent is saying. I am so ready for a big snowstorm also and patience is wearing thin. Maybe two mild weeks in February and a rocking-and-rolling December and January. Get the ball rollin early!!!!!
3 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37143
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
gpsnowman wrote:Portastorm wrote:Brent wrote:
boo
But Brent, wouldn't you trade a mild two weeks in December for a rocking-and-rolling January and February?
I get what Brent is saying. I am so ready for a big snowstorm also and patience is wearing thin. Maybe two mild weeks in February and a rocking-and-rolling December and January. Get the ball rollin early!!!!!
if early December would deliver like people have been saying I wouldn't mind a moderation
but I have doubts and I don't wanna be waiting around til winter is half over for a snowstorm that given our luck lately may not even happen
2 likes
#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Brent wrote:gpsnowman wrote:Portastorm wrote:
But Brent, wouldn't you trade a mild two weeks in December for a rocking-and-rolling January and February?
I get what Brent is saying. I am so ready for a big snowstorm also and patience is wearing thin. Maybe two mild weeks in February and a rocking-and-rolling December and January. Get the ball rollin early!!!!!
if early December would deliver like people have been saying I wouldn't mind a moderation
but I have doubts and I don't wanna be waiting around til winter is half over for a snowstorm that given our luck lately may not even happen
I'll be selfish! I'd like early December to deliver and a rocking and rolling January and February lol! I really hope this winter is much better than last winter! I've been watching the models but this far not alot that I'm seeing! Then again I really just look at the Euro, Canadian, and US models lol. But fingers crossed!
1 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37143
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
DFWLady wrote:Brent wrote:gpsnowman wrote:I get what Brent is saying. I am so ready for a big snowstorm also and patience is wearing thin. Maybe two mild weeks in February and a rocking-and-rolling December and January. Get the ball rollin early!!!!!
if early December would deliver like people have been saying I wouldn't mind a moderation
but I have doubts and I don't wanna be waiting around til winter is half over for a snowstorm that given our luck lately may not even happen
I'll be selfish! I'd like early December to deliver and a rocking and rolling January and February lol! I really hope this winter is much better than last winter! I've been watching the models but this far not alot that I'm seeing! Then again I really just look at the Euro, Canadian, and US models lol. But fingers crossed!
it can't really be any worse, watching snow miss to the south repeatedly is the worst lol
I do like the signs for the winter for sure, but I want some setups to start appearing...
1 likes
#neversummer
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2969
- Age: 36
- Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
- Location: Lindale, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
The models are still wildly different for next week, heck even the early week system has huge differences between models. I still think that the late week system has a lot of promise. Whether it turns out to be 30 or 50 we do look to be in for a good rain with models continuing to trend wetter for next week, yay -PNA.
1 likes
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Ralph's Weather wrote:The models are still wildly different for next week, heck even the early week system has huge differences between models. I still think that the late week system has a lot of promise. Whether it turns out to be 30 or 50 we do look to be in for a good rain with models continuing to trend wetter for next week, yay -PNA.
I sure hope so, been seeing more fire weather concerns in the EWX discussions. I have been pretty busy the last few months so I don't get a chance to follow up on the forum the way I would like. Its expected even during Modoki El Niños that there are periods of dry weather in between the long stretches of cool and wet, but this is more than a period of dryness. Starting to feel more like a La Niña pattern with dry fronts, moisture never has the time to return enough for anything significant, storm systems too far to the north. Let's hope the rest of the winter doesn't continue like this...
0 likes
Resident Rain Miser
I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.
I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2969
- Age: 36
- Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
- Location: Lindale, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
JDawg512 wrote:Ralph's Weather wrote:The models are still wildly different for next week, heck even the early week system has huge differences between models. I still think that the late week system has a lot of promise. Whether it turns out to be 30 or 50 we do look to be in for a good rain with models continuing to trend wetter for next week, yay -PNA.
I sure hope so, been seeing more fire weather concerns in the EWX discussions. I have been pretty busy the last few months so I don't get a chance to follow up on the forum the way I would like. Its expected even during Modoki El Niños that there are periods of dry weather in between the long stretches of cool and wet, but this is more than a period of dryness. Starting to feel more like a La Niña pattern with dry fronts, moisture never has the time to return enough for anything significant, storm systems too far to the north. Let's hope the rest of the winter doesn't continue like this...
The weekend storm looks to cross along the US/MX border so I do not think we are talking about a dry storm at all. The question with it is how far south it can stay. The is the best case scenario with a possible closed low staying south of the border until it reaches TX. If this is an I-40 storm then some storms and that's about it.
0 likes
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.
- TeamPlayersBlue
- Category 5
- Posts: 3310
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
- Location: Denver/Applewood, CO
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Going to be negative nancy here, but something i've noticed and do not like is ho much the 1+2 region has warmed. I think for us in Texas, its vital this region be cool. I could be off some, but a warm 1+2 region promotes a 500 MB high near Mexico which can keep ULL's from digging down deep into Texas.
Open to criticism on this analysis, but looking at SST map and the current runs of the GFS, you can see how the ULL's are digging deep enough.
Open to criticism on this analysis, but looking at SST map and the current runs of the GFS, you can see how the ULL's are digging deep enough.
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2969
- Age: 36
- Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
- Location: Lindale, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Storms tonight then a nice weekend then a trailing shortwave on Monday. It would not take much amplification for this trailing shortwave to spit some flurries over N and N TX on Monday. Then most of next week looks cool with multiple morning freezes. Rain return Friday into Saturday and maybe Sunday. Much of the state looks to see 1-3" of rain from this. Up in OK and KS this could begin as a decent ice storm. In TX there could be a changeover to snow late Saturday. The 8th is going to be a very interesting day to watch on the models, but the 3rd is also sneaky.
0 likes
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2969
- Age: 36
- Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
- Location: Lindale, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
As the Fall thread is buzzing about, the Euro ensembles show some hefty snow totals for northern TX next Saturday.
I did some quick calcs on the latest Euro ensembles next weekend.
For western N TX, 68% show snow with 20% showing over 3 inches.
For DFW, 40% show snow with 20% showing over an inch.
For the Tyler area, 24% show snow.
For northern NE TX, 48% show snow with 2 members showing over a foot.
I am not sure how weather.us accounts for sleet and or ice so some of these totals especially out west could be overdone if this is not just snow.
I did some quick calcs on the latest Euro ensembles next weekend.
For western N TX, 68% show snow with 20% showing over 3 inches.
For DFW, 40% show snow with 20% showing over an inch.
For the Tyler area, 24% show snow.
For northern NE TX, 48% show snow with 2 members showing over a foot.
I am not sure how weather.us accounts for sleet and or ice so some of these totals especially out west could be overdone if this is not just snow.
2 likes
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37143
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
really hoping we can start this thread off officially with a bang for the storm next weekend. Definitely gonna be a chilly leadup.
1 likes
#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
We are now good to go for DJF! May it be a long, cold, and snowy winter! Discuss away. Thread will remain open till at least February 28th. This is the bread and butter of the year for us after waiting 9 agonizing months.
4 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Haris
- Category 5
- Posts: 1808
- Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
- Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Rest in peace to an honorable true American leader, George HW Bush.
And back to weather, some GEFS members show ice in CTX
And back to weather, some GEFS members show ice in CTX
4 likes
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4174
- Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
- Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Woohoo! We're here!
Let it SNOW!
Let it SNOW!
3 likes
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests