Texas Winter 2018-2019

[bubba hotep]

Some subtle changes in our favor on the 12z Euro. A proxy to watch for this week is the EPO. The models didn't see it this negative and might be bringing it back positive too fast.

[Ntxw]

Models today have leaned more towards northern stream interaction once the systems starts kicking out. That's probably a good sign the system may be able to pull down more cold air.

[orangeblood]

Models today have leaned more towards northern stream interaction once the systems starts kicking out. That's probably a good sign the system may be able to pull down more cold air.

Yep, check out the EPS mean snowfall axis...beginning to shift southward every subsequent run. How many times have we seen this song and dance with models showing Oklahoma axis at this time frame only to end up in Texas?

[Brent]

Just for comparison yesterdays euro runs had the snow mostly north of Oklahoma City now its down almost into N TX

Definitely reasons to be optimistic

[Ntxw]

Models today have leaned more towards northern stream interaction once the systems starts kicking out. That's probably a good sign the system may be able to pull down more cold air.

Yep, check out the EPS mean snowfall axis...beginning to shift southward every subsequent run. How many times have we seen this song and dance with models showing Oklahoma axis at this time frame only to end up in Texas?

It will probably shift a good bit further south still. Made note of the surface low along the coast. Many times have Oklahoma and Kansas, even us sometimes get robbed when this happens.

[bubba hotep]

Euro is teeing up another system, could be an active period

[Ntxw]

Very strong subtropical jet involved. To get the kind of qpf out of December like this is not an easy feat.

[Haris]

NWS Austin/San Antonio Both GFS and ECMWF models are in good agreement with the potential
for these systems to bring heavy rainfall to our area, especially
along and north of Highway 90/I-10 on Friday and Friday evening.

With pwats in the range of 1.6 to 1.8 inches, a slower frontal
boundary if a coastal trough develops during the period and plenty
instability above as the upper level disturbance moves across the
area, 1 to 3 inches are possible with isolated storm totals of 6
inches, especially across the northeast part of the Hill Country.

In addition to the heavy rain potential, there may be a window Friday
afternoon and evening for strong storms to develop along the frontal
boundary which could result to be the I-35 corridor including the San
Antonio and Austin metro areas.

The cold front is expected to pick up some speed Friday night as the
expected coastal trough moves to the northeast towards east Texas,
allowing the cold front to push to the southeast and into the Coastal
Plains.

More details will be offered with future packages as we enter the
window of HiRes model data in few more dates.

[SnowintheFalls]

Our local mets her in Wichita Falls seem to be going with the flow of the models. Just a few days ago they said to expect nothing more than rain but now are talking a possible ice storm. I can appreciate the life of a weather person for the mere fact of how tough it has to be making these calls publicly when the data behind the calls is so fluid!

[Ntxw]

Our local mets her in Wichita Falls seem to be going with the flow of the models. Just a few days ago they said to expect nothing more than rain but now are talking a possible ice storm. I can appreciate the life of a weather person for the mere fact of how tough it has to be making these calls publicly when the data behind the calls is so fluid!

It will change a few more times until about Weds or Thurs. Don't be surprised if at some point precip is taken off altogether that far north for a run or two.

[SnowintheFalls]

Our local mets her in Wichita Falls seem to be going with the flow of the models. Just a few days ago they said to expect nothing more than rain but now are talking a possible ice storm. I can appreciate the life of a weather person for the mere fact of how tough it has to be making these calls publicly when the data behind the calls is so fluid!

It will change a few more times until about Weds or Thurs. Don't be surprised if at some point precip is taken off altogether that far north for a run or two.

I just wish the general public understood this! I appreciate this forum giving us a peak behind the curtain of the craziness behind meteorology. I have seen first hand from this forum how much it can change hour to hour. Having to make an announcement publicly based on the flowing data has to be a bit nerve-racking!

[Ntxw]

Looking at the guidance today suppression is definitely going to be an issue for those up North. The northern jet coming in will likely push things southward. The Gulf low is going to rob some places, we're already seeing signs of that. The Euro and other model runs gave Missouri some 20+ inches of snow along with snow in Kansas and that has about evaporated for them.



Right now you want to be in an area with high QPF and hope for colder air to outrun it. Rather than be in the perfect spot with just enough qpf that might go poof..This is what happened to DFW last December when models kept showing snow but ended up in Central and SE Texas.

[Brent]

Looking at the guidance today suppression is definitely going to be an issue for those up North. The northern jet coming in will likely push things southward. The Gulf low is going to rob some places, we're already seeing signs of that. The Euro and other model runs gave Missouri some 20+ inches of snow along with snow in Kansas and that has about evaporated for them.

https://images2.imgbox.com/1c/c7/jfYCnMaL_o.gif

Right now you want to be in an area with high QPF and hope for colder air to outrun it. Rather than be in the perfect spot with just enough qpf that might go poof..This is what happened to DFW last December when models kept showing snow but ended up in Central and SE Texas.

yeah watching back east things have really trended south too... I definitely think this could work in our favor. Always say the 7 day bullseye is usually a sure fire bust.

[Haris]

Atlanta major snow storm on the euro.

[Brent]

Atlanta major snow storm on the euro.

its probably largely ice with the cold air orientation over there down the Appalachians but that would figure... Ironically that would be one year since the big snow that hit over there

[OKMet83]

I know this is thread is "Texas Winter " but we might have some Texans traveling up north this coming weekend... Let me be as blunt as I can possibly be if this unfolds how I feel it might areas from around Interstate 40 from the OK/TX panhandle region down to the Red River valley region of Southern OK and even portions of extreme N TX (Counties that hug the Red River) I feel we will see a MAJOR Winter Storm to the likes we have not witnessed in many years. Significant accumulations (Winter Storm And Ice Storm Criteria ) are likely based on all the latest model guidance. Ensembles also show this at some point or another overspreading the main body of Oklahoma and into FAR N TX.. I'm talking like W.Falls - Gainesville and possibly Sherman-Denison..

I cannot stress enough this type of weather pattern needs to be watched CLOSELY! We will be dealing with shallow cold air, something the long range models struggle with often. As we get closer to Friday, if the cold air gets farther south we could no doubt be talking about an impactful event in even the Dallas-Fortworth metroplex! We are talking about QPF Values in excess of 1.50" in far North TX (Counties along the Red River) to 1.75" to 2 inches plus from DFW South and East.. So this is something you don't want to just blow off and ignore because if the models are underestimating the cold air we could have serious trouble. Keep in mind the track of the entire system is a HUGE factor as well which has been well covered above.

Bottom line all with interest/travel plans from late Thu through Sat in the Southern Plains need to pay close attention through the coming week for the very latest on this potentially significant winter storm.

[bubba hotep]

Lock it up!

[missygirl810]

Oh, how I wish lol!!!

Lock it up!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018120218/gfs_apcpn_scus_52.png

[Brent]

how much of that is snow?

[dhweather]

Beyond this period though, there is still signs of a mid month torch centered around the Great Lakes and northern tier. Hopefully the STJ will be active during that time and keep us with rains and while milder, at least stormy. A new Scandinavian ridge will take place by mid month and retrogress and we're back to where we were mid November. I don't think this is the winter for big cold, but more usual of an El Nino. A lot of storms we will be nitpicking for marginals with climo helping as the season goes on. Much like November was. Nothing was shockingly cold just consistently cold enough.

So you're saying that it's a winter cancel?