Texas Winter 2018-2019

[wxman57]

Euro and GFS (12Z) have the snow confined to the TX Panhandle. Nothing to indicate any accumulations into the D-FW area. Both models have 1-3" of rain in the D-FW area Fri/Sat. Main threat for most of TX is heavy rain.

[Cpv17]

Wettest euro yet. 5” here

Yeah the Euro is definitely a lot further south with the most rainfall.

[Ralph's Weather]

Most models now form the surface low inland before tracking it due east. This keeps the coldest air to our north. We really need the shortwave to dig a bit more before turning NE. If this comes in south of Big Bend we would be in a much better position. We are still well within the margin for error for this event shift everything 100 miles or preferably a bit more SE and the outcome is wildly different.

[Lagreeneyes03]

If this doesn't pan out, what about the next one I think I saw mentioned? 10 days out, Thursday 13 thereabouts?

[Ralph's Weather]

If this doesn't pan out, what about the next one I think I saw mentioned? 10 days out, Thursday 13 thereabouts?

Likely, no cold air left for that one, but still keep a small eye on it. Should be another round of good rain at the least.

[dhweather]

If this doesn't pan out, what about the next one I think I saw mentioned? 10 days out, Thursday 13 thereabouts?

In the world of models, there's always something two weeks out.

[Captmorg70]

So the NAM is just starting to get into this time frame. What’s the chances it’s temps are closer to what we’ll actually see compared to GFS/EURO?

[Ralph's Weather]

Nothing special about the 84H 18Z NAM though surface is a touch colder. Tomorrow it will begin to enter its wheelhouse on this as it often can pick up the little nuances that matter in these situations. RGEM will also be interesting once we enter its range.

[CaptinCrunch]

Whether or not any winter precip comes with this system we need the rain, we need the soil mositure content up. This will add in holding down ground temps as we move along this winter.

As for the system, only thing I can see happening is a small burst of wet snow on the backend of the system as it pushes east from NTX. Hopefully there will be enough sub freezing air in the upper levels that it could get pulled down far enough to alow for a brief change over Saturday morning.

[Haris]

Gfs now has also 5-6” . This is serious


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[Cerlin]

What’s everyone’s confidence on DFW snow with this system? Based on the inconsistency of models thus far and the gradual shift towards just rain, mine’s fairly low, but I’m curious what y’all think...

[Cpv17]

Pretty good south shift by the WPC.

[OKMet83]

At this time it looks like a pretty solid rain down into Central/South TX... Areas N Of DFW still need to be watched IMO! It's NOT over yet.. I have said it time and time again but models do very poorly with shallow cold air!
Another reason I'm not done with this just yet is all the snow pack 43% of the country covered in snow a lot of that directly to our north in the Central/Northern Plains states (Thus the cold air coming will not be moderating as much)

[orangeblood]

Even if we miss out this time around...Euro weeklies are very impressive beyond mid month into January - cold and snowy for the southern half of the lower 48

[Brent]

What’s everyone’s confidence on DFW snow with this system? Based on the inconsistency of models thus far and the gradual shift towards just rain, mine’s fairly low, but I’m curious what y’all think...

I'm pretty much of the mindset that I'll believe it when i see it but I've been trying to withhold judgment til the hi res models start

The globals are known to struggle with cold air which is a reason to be hopeful but i just dunno if it'll be cold enough

[gboudx]

What’s everyone’s confidence on DFW snow with this system? Based on the inconsistency of models thus far and the gradual shift towards just rain, mine’s fairly low, but I’m curious what y’all think...

I'm pretty much of the mindset that I'll believe it when i see it but I've been trying to withhold judgment til the hi res models start

The globals are known to struggle with cold air which is a reason to be hopeful but i just dunno if it'll be cold enough

This is my mindset no matter what. Seen too many “sure bets” become rain due to an unforeseen warm layer. And some “not much” over perform in a good way.

[DonWrk]

McCauley is for sure a no go on the snow. Go ahead and write it off...

[Brent]

What’s everyone’s confidence on DFW snow with this system? Based on the inconsistency of models thus far and the gradual shift towards just rain, mine’s fairly low, but I’m curious what y’all think...

I'm pretty much of the mindset that I'll believe it when i see it but I've been trying to withhold judgment til the hi res models start

The globals are known to struggle with cold air which is a reason to be hopeful but i just dunno if it'll be cold enough

This is my mindset no matter what. Seen too many “sure bets” become rain due to an unforeseen warm layer. And some “not much” over perform in a good way.

Maybe some day Dallas will get a snowstorm that is obvious but i mean even the foot in 2010 was a surprise lol

I just hope were not waiting too long for another threat if this one is done

[Ralph's Weather]

McCauley is for sure a no go on the snow. Go ahead and write it off...

It likey is a no go apart for some wet flakes at the end. Though Steve's method is good it is far from infallible especially at this range.

[DonWrk]

McCauley is for sure a no go on the snow. Go ahead and write it off...

It likey is a no go apart for some wet flakes at the end. Though Steve's method is good it is far from infallible especially at this range.

Seems like I’m always rooting against Steve and his stat method...