Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Ralph's Weather]

Quite a drop in snow predictions from the 12Z NAM. Here's a loop I made comparing the 06Z and 12Z NAM runs. From 18" near OKC to 3-4". Trend has been for less snow since yesterday.

http://wxman57.com/images/NAMDec6.gif

You literally only post negative stuff lol don’t have nothing nice to say, don’t say it at all

Its good to have a voice of reason sometimes. I know I focus on the best case scenarios so we need some balance here.

[wxman57]

Quite a drop in snow predictions from the 12Z NAM. Here's a loop I made comparing the 06Z and 12Z NAM runs. From 18" near OKC to 3-4". Trend has been for less snow since yesterday.

http://wxman57.com/images/NAMDec6.gif

You literally only post negative stuff lol don’t have nothing nice to say, don’t say it at all

"Just the facts, Ma'am" (Dragnet TV series for you youngsters). Whether the facts are negative or positive is a matter of opinion, and I didn't post my opinion of what I think will happen. I tend to think it's a positive that the model sees less cold air.

[Haris]

THe rain totals are looking lower for Austin.

[Captmorg70]

Has anyone looked at the latest RGEM? Is it holding back energy or something else? It looks a lot different than every other model at hr 48.

[Ralph's Weather]

The RGEM supports the NAM and is even stronger and further south. Those two models are great at sniffing out things so that peaks my interest even more that they are in agreement. The globals can't catch up. Case in point Saturday morning the RGEM has the freeze line in the southern Permian Basin south of Midland and the GFS has it north of Amarillo. I'll eat crow if I miss this one, but I am all in on a good snow event for NW TX except for the northern Panhandle with light snow spreading east N of I-20. The good snow should also extend into OK south of I-44 maybe excepting SE OK where amounts will be lighter.

[Ntxw]

It's kinda aweasome to be at the point where we are watching temperature trends, with the NAM still forecasting snow within 60 hrs for our areas, I'm excited! However if you look at the hrrr it's significantly warmer than all the other models, NTXW does the hrrr have a warm bias?

I'm not sure if it has a warm bias. It has been too cold sometimes during Arctic outbreaks.

[losf1981]

The RGEM supports the NAM and is even stronger and further south. Those two models are great at sniffing out things so that peaks my interest even more that they are in agreement. The globals can't catch up. Case in point Saturday morning the RGEM has the freeze line in the southern Permian Basin south of Midland and the GFS has it north of Amarillo. I'll eat crow if I miss this one, but I am all in on a good snow event for NW TX except for the northern Panhandle with light snow spreading east N of I-20. The good snow should also extend into OK south of I-44 maybe excepting SE OK where amounts will be lighter.

When you say south of I-44 do you mean south of the red river? 44 starts in far north Wichita Falls and then runs north up into Oklahoma. Just curious. Thanks.

[Cpv17]

Quite a drop in snow predictions from the 12Z NAM. Here's a loop I made comparing the 06Z and 12Z NAM runs. From 18" near OKC to 3-4". Trend has been for less snow since yesterday.

http://wxman57.com/images/NAMDec6.gif

You literally only post negative stuff lol don’t have nothing nice to say, don’t say it at all

Its good to have a voice of reason sometimes. I know I focus on the best case scenarios so we need some balance here.

I’m a realist so I don’t focus on the negative or the positive. I’m right smack dab in the middle, but I realistically see DFW getting some flakes out of this, but no accumulation.

[wxman57]

THe rain totals are looking lower for Austin.

Yes, the 12Z GFS shifted the heavier rain south and east. It shows 2.0 to 2.5 inches in the San Antonio/Austin areas. Max of 7.1" north of Houston near Livingston.

[wxman57]

I’m a realist so I don’t focus on the negative or the positive. I’m right smack dab in the middle, but I realistically see DFW getting some flakes out of this, but no accumulation.

I think (my opinion) that the lower 5000 ft will be too warm for snow in the D-FW area with this storm. However, I wouldn't say zero chance of seeing a snowflake as the precip ends. You'll get your snow up there with the pattern predicted for this winter. It's not even winter yet.

[Ntxw]

I’m a realist so I don’t focus on the negative or the positive. I’m right smack dab in the middle, but I realistically see DFW getting some flakes out of this, but no accumulation.

That's good to be! I am the thread's optimist. Antithesis to the heat miser since Portastorm's retraction but we get along real well. Most of us forget Wxman57 is not just an ordinary met here he is also a moderator. Kind of have to be to keep discussion moving as tasked . A dead thread is no good for the site.

That's probably a good prognosis of possible ending flakes especially the northern tier counties.

[Ralph's Weather]

The RGEM supports the NAM and is even stronger and further south. Those two models are great at sniffing out things so that peaks my interest even more that they are in agreement. The globals can't catch up. Case in point Saturday morning the RGEM has the freeze line in the southern Permian Basin south of Midland and the GFS has it north of Amarillo. I'll eat crow if I miss this one, but I am all in on a good snow event for NW TX except for the northern Panhandle with light snow spreading east N of I-20. The good snow should also extend into OK south of I-44 maybe excepting SE OK where amounts will be lighter.

When you say south of I-44 do you mean south of the red river? 44 starts in far north Wichita Falls and then runs north up into Oklahoma. Just curious. Thanks.

Saying south of a WF to OKC to Tulsa line.

[Haris]

I really wanted the front to stall out here and give us lots of rain and stronger storms . The globals NOW trend faster. Pathetic

[JDawg512]

What a lovely day! Getting a nice little downpour here at the Rain Cave. This is the kind of weather to be outdoors, that is if I didn't have to work today. It's quite alright though since I'll be in water regardless while at work...

[Cpv17]

I really wanted the front to stall out here and give us lots of rain and stronger storms . The globals NOW trend faster. Pathetic

12z GFS looks good again for next Thursday/Friday.

[Ralph's Weather]

The WRF models are all stronger than even the RGEM through Friday evening.

[Captmorg70]

The WRF models are all stronger than even the RGEM through Friday evening.

What are WRF models exactly? they just extra short range mesoscale models right?

[Ntxw]

I really wanted the front to stall out here and give us lots of rain and stronger storms . The globals NOW trend faster. Pathetic

12z GFS looks good again for next Thursday/Friday.

This winter stormy wise reminds me of 2009-2010. Even if we whiff, I remember that winter storm threats were always on the horizon once one finished. We weren't sitting around waiting for 300+ hour GFS to show a big storm. Also storms that were blips 300 hours out became big ones within 7 day range.

[Ralph's Weather]

The WRF models are all stronger than even the RGEM through Friday evening.

What are WRF models exactly? they just extra short range mesoscale models right?

That's all I know about them

[Ntxw]

FV3 doesn't even snow in the Panhandle or Oklahoma where there is major snow forecasted and winter storm watches, dry as a bone. This will be an interesting side story since the FV3 will be replacing the GFS in a few weeks.