Texas Winter 2018-2019

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SoupBone
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#601 Postby SoupBone » Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:16 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Quite a drop in snow predictions from the 12Z NAM. Here's a loop I made comparing the 06Z and 12Z NAM runs. From 18" near OKC to 3-4". Trend has been for less snow since yesterday.

http://wxman57.com/images/NAMDec6.gif


You literally only post negative stuff lol don’t have nothing nice to say, don’t say it at all :lol:

Its good to have a voice of reason sometimes. I know I focus on the best case scenarios so we need some balance here.



He's obviously messing with him. wxman57 is the harbinger of warm weather for Texas. He's like the anti-Jack Frost. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#602 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:18 pm

Ntxw wrote:FV3 doesn't even snow in the Panhandle or Oklahoma where there is major snow forecasted and winter storm watches, dry as a bone. This will be an interesting side story since the FV3 will be replacing the GFS in a few weeks.

It seems to missing a midlevel trigger for the precip out there.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#603 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:34 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
Ntxw wrote:FV3 doesn't even snow in the Panhandle or Oklahoma where there is major snow forecasted and winter storm watches, dry as a bone. This will be an interesting side story since the FV3 will be replacing the GFS in a few weeks.

It seems to missing a midlevel trigger for the precip out there.


RGEM if extrapolated has very low qpf for Amarillo. Even the GFS for them. QPF shield up north trend has been drier. Wonder if it's correcting to the gulf low in close range?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#604 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:42 pm

This is why the NAM has been reducing snowfall totals in Oklahoma as posted by the heat miser earlier

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#605 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:55 pm

Ntxw wrote:FV3 doesn't even snow in the Panhandle or Oklahoma where there is major snow forecasted and winter storm watches, dry as a bone. This will be an interesting side story since the FV3 will be replacing the GFS in a few weeks.


be funny if it doesn't even really snow at all :lol: That was their problem last year too

and now the Euro barely has any snow in a lot of Oklahoma :lol: not close to DFW
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#606 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:28 pm

Why is the snow being reduced in OK? We could use some more snowpack to help us hopefully for the future.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#607 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:31 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Why is the snow being reduced in OK? We could use some more snowpack to help us hopefully for the future.


theres not even really any precip north of OKC, big south shift there

Its not that cold either it looks weird no snow in Wichita Falls really and the wraparound ends as rain
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#608 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:42 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Why is the snow being reduced in OK? We could use some more snowpack to help us hopefully for the future.


Ntxw pointed this out a few days ago. It’s cuz the low pressure that will come across south central and into SETX will be sucking all the moisture south closer to the center of the low. Basically the low is too far south of Oklahoma. That’s probably why the totals are being reduced.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#609 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:01 pm

They’re treating all of the overpasses up this way and getting the plows mounted today.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#610 Postby wxman57 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:26 pm

Here's the 12Z ECMWF snow forecast. Not much snow for OK.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#611 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:33 pm

wxman57 wrote:Here's the 12Z ECMWF snow forecast. Not much snow for OK.



what a sad map
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#612 Postby DFWLady » Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:38 pm

Brent wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Here's the 12Z ECMWF snow forecast. Not much snow for OK.



what a sad map



It definitely is. I got hopeful for a millisecond there. We will get it this year Brent! I believe!!!! just not this weekend lol!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#613 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:51 pm

18Z NAM is rolling now
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#614 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:07 pm

NAM is again a bit stronger with the SW low through tomorrow evening.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#615 Postby DonWrk » Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:13 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:NAM is again a bit stronger with the SW low through tomorrow evening.


Panhandle and Oklahoma almost zero precip.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#616 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:20 pm

DonWrk wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:NAM is again a bit stronger with the SW low through tomorrow evening.


Panhandle and Oklahoma almost zero precip.

The south trend continues. Not looking like there will anything north of I-44 in OK.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#617 Postby wxman57 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:21 pm

DonWrk wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:NAM is again a bit stronger with the SW low through tomorrow evening.


Panhandle and Oklahoma almost zero precip.


It doesn't go out far enough yet. Looks similar to the 12Z through only 45 hours.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#618 Postby DonWrk » Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:22 pm

wxman57 wrote:
DonWrk wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:NAM is again a bit stronger with the SW low through tomorrow evening.


Panhandle and Oklahoma almost zero precip.


It doesn't go out far enough yet. Looks similar to the 12Z through only 45 hours.


Right, through 39 hours when I commented.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#619 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:27 pm

Looks like the best run yet for DFW. Difference is the upper low was focused on NW TX through the Red River but now it is Big Bend into the Hill Country before heading NE.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#620 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:28 pm

The NAM is trending to what most ULLs do without significant cold air. Rely on dynamic cooling aloft where 850s congregate often west and southwest of a strong low. QPF trends are sure clipping away in the northern areas.

Systems like these can be huge busts in forecasts. Not just for surprise snows in some places, but no snow for others forecast to get some.
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