Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Brent]

it looks promising but then the NAM shrinks the snow area just as it moves in close to the metro down to nothing like there's a curse over DFW or something

[Haris]

I always speak too soon! LOL

[Ralph's Weather]

The NAM is trending to what most ULLs do without significant cold air. Rely on dynamic cooling aloft where 850s congregate often west and southwest of a strong low. QPF trends are sure clipping away in the northern areas.

Systems like these can be huge busts in forecasts. Not just for surprise snows in some places, but no snow for others forecast to get some.

The sweet spots for this storm look to be small but they will be intense. Not a widespread big snow but a narrow band from Midland to Fort Worth and just north of there would get good snow per this run. the Red River stuff on this run looks like mostly a mixed bag and not likely to be the big snow depicted on TT.

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile raining at a decent clip right now outside. Moist environment in Texas.

[Brent]

Gets to the metro and poof

[SnowintheFalls]

One heck of a bust if this trend keeps moving in the wrong direction. It's going to be bad for the ticker if this is how the upcoming winter is going to be!.

[Ralph's Weather]

I'll take my chances with a I-20 upper low during the winter any day. Surface depictions will vary as low level temps will plummet right as you are in the sweet spot while under the heavy precip and rise back up immediately afterwards. Also I bet this system will find some moisture with the very strong dynamics. The Saturday afternoon forecast in N TX will be a very tricky one. Someone may well get 3-6 inches of snow with no winter products issued while another spot could see nothing with a winter storm warning.

18Z 3km NAM almost to the good time period.

[Ralph's Weather]

3km NAM very similar. For spots east of I-35 it will be all about getting heavy precip as that will bring the surface temps down. Also need a bit drier air at the surface to allow for wet bulbing. So close on this run.

18Z RGEM running now.

[northjaxpro]

I have seen it happen quite often with Upper Level Lows in the winter months. I will say this: I would not underestimate the dynamical cooling these features do often display. I find them fascinating this time of year. Just a quick thought ...........

[Brent]

:uarrow: I have seen it happen quite often with Upper Level Lows in the winter months. I will say this: I would not underestimate the dynamical cooling these features do often display. I find them fascinating this time of year. Just a quick thought ...........

yeah upper level lows are known as a weatherman's woe...

[wxman57]

Comparison of 12Z and 18Z NAM. Make sure you choose the correct snow parameter on Tropical Tidbits - Accumulated Positive Snow Depth Change. Otherwise, you may be plotting freezing rain and sleet, too.

[Ntxw]

Comparison of 12Z and 18Z NAM. Make sure you choose the correct snow parameter on Tropical Tidbits - Accumulated Positive Snow Depth Change. Otherwise, you may be plotting freezing rain and sleet, too.

http://wxman57.com/images/NAM18Z.gif

This is part of the problem when we post clown maps of 20-30+ inches of snow. You have to be careful with tropicaltidbits and most maps not involving Kuchera method. It sees sleet as a ton of snow and 10:1 ratio is not a good valid value for marginal conditions when you could be looking at much less.

[bubba hotep]

18z 3k NAM soundings aren't horrible as precipitation ends across DFW. Maybe at least in the ballpark of something???

[Ralph's Weather]

Comparison of 12Z and 18Z NAM. Make sure you choose the correct snow parameter on Tropical Tidbits - Accumulated Positive Snow Depth Change. Otherwise, you may be plotting freezing rain and sleet, too.

http://wxman57.com/images/NAM18Z.gif

A good trend for N TX. A Gulf Coast surface low and a TX upper low will typically not provide much fun north of the Red River.

[Ralph's Weather]

18z 3k NAM soundings aren't horrible as precipitation ends across DFW. Maybe at least in the ballpark of something???

Agreed, the tight upper low cools down the column, just have to see how much moisture remains for it to work with. There will be surprises good and bad.

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z RGEM not quite as tight with the upper low as the NAM so 850s are just a tad too warm this run, but much more moisture for the low to play with. For DFW this has potential for multiple inches but also could be no snow at all (same for points east of DFW and north of I-20.

One of these runs is going to plop down 6" of snow over DFW and we will lose our minds. Then it will shift to Denison on the next run.

[Jarodm12]

Not to be rude, I love you guys, but why is anyone excited about this trend all of the modkes have called off any winter storm what so ever lol

[Jarodm12]

It appears the global models have been right all along and not "too warm" at all, I have a feeling this will be the case all winter

[AubreyStorm]

Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow in Denton, Texas

[orangeblood]

Not to be rude, I love you guys, but why is anyone excited about this trend all of the modkes have called off any winter storm what so ever lol

typically because it's strictly from a "my backyard" perspective....a lot of us on here, after following these models for many years, recognize that this trend has potential to slam someone on the north and west sides the cold core low as it move across. In this instance, it looks like the track is taking a more southerly route in Texas rather than Oklahoma!