2018 WPAC Season
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- TyphoonNara
- Category 1
- Posts: 367
- Age: 24
- Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
- Location: Hong Kong
- vortextracker
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 113
- Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:12 am
Re: 2018 WPAC Season
GFS rebuilds the ridge and runs the model storm over capital hill on 00z run.
https://imgur.com/1RkOT2g
https://imgur.com/ZyonIw2
https://imgur.com/CPTAw86
https://imgur.com/1RkOT2g
https://imgur.com/ZyonIw2
https://imgur.com/CPTAw86
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
ECMWF 00z has the system but very weak signature tracking through southwest of Marianas
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Peak
Possible landfall
Possible landfall
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Moderate to fresh trades persist across the eastern region from
Chuuk to Majuro. Dry weather is trying to keep its hold on the
western locations including Chuuk and Pohnpei, but showers and
thunderstorms associated with a near-equatorial trough are creeping
in closer to Pohnpei. Showers have persisted much of the day at
Majuro and Kosrae with the trough sitting to the south. Looking
ahead, the GFS model still spins up a disturbance late in the
weekend near the date line with possible development through early
next week as it heads WNW. Will have to watch this closely as well
as how other models handle things the next few days. At the least,
the region will see a generally wetter pattern the next few days.
Chuuk to Majuro. Dry weather is trying to keep its hold on the
western locations including Chuuk and Pohnpei, but showers and
thunderstorms associated with a near-equatorial trough are creeping
in closer to Pohnpei. Showers have persisted much of the day at
Majuro and Kosrae with the trough sitting to the south. Looking
ahead, the GFS model still spins up a disturbance late in the
weekend near the date line with possible development through early
next week as it heads WNW. Will have to watch this closely as well
as how other models handle things the next few days. At the least,
the region will see a generally wetter pattern the next few days.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139708
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2018 WPAC Season
12z ECMWF is on board!!
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Next is invest...
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: 2018 WPAC Season
GFS still developing other TC's right behind it.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- TyphoonNara
- Category 1
- Posts: 367
- Age: 24
- Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
- Location: Hong Kong
Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Full resolution has the peak at 941mb!
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- vortextracker
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 113
- Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:12 am
- vortextracker
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 113
- Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:12 am
Re: 2018 WPAC Season
GFS end of run, the model thinks the storm will catch the building ridge to the west.
Runs will be interesting over the coming week.
https://imgur.com/FImXNql
https://imgur.com/nTeHqNm
Runs will be interesting over the coming week.
https://imgur.com/FImXNql
https://imgur.com/nTeHqNm
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Now tagged as 99C
99C
99C
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
- ManilaTC
- WesternPacificWeather.com
- Posts: 592
- Age: 46
- Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2009 5:13 am
- Location: Mandaluyong City, Philippines
- Contact:
Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Not another Christmas Typhoon darn it
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The above post is NOT official and should not be used as such. It is my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. Please refer to your official national weather agency.
WEB http://goo.gl/JDiKXB | FB https://goo.gl/N5sIle | @ManilaTC
WEB http://goo.gl/JDiKXB | FB https://goo.gl/N5sIle | @ManilaTC
- TyphoonNara
- Category 1
- Posts: 367
- Age: 24
- Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
- Location: Hong Kong
Re: 2018 WPAC Season
GFS seeing alot of activity later this month as a KW and MJO moves through.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- TyphoonNara
- Category 1
- Posts: 367
- Age: 24
- Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
- Location: Hong Kong
Re: 2018 WPAC Season
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Re: 2018 WPAC Season
Seems ECMWF is also trying to develop a second storm behind 99C but let us see 99C first as 99C's development is crucial to this possible 2nd model storm.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
- TyphoonNara
- Category 1
- Posts: 367
- Age: 24
- Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:41 am
- Location: Hong Kong
Re: 2018 WPAC Season
JTWC upgraded the system to "Medium".
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.0N 180.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.2N 178.2E, APPROXIMATELY 680
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
AND A 100926Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A DISORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SMALL POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH. 99C SITS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS), AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO
30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 99C WILL GENERALLY TRACK
WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AROUND A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.0N 180.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.2N 178.2E, APPROXIMATELY 680
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
AND A 100926Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A DISORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SMALL POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH. 99C SITS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS), AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO
30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 99C WILL GENERALLY TRACK
WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AROUND A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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