WPAC: Invest 99C

[Hayabusa]

99C INVEST 181208 0600 5.0N 175.0W CPAC 25 1006
The models develop this when this system is over in the WPAC

[euro6208]

A weak circulation embedded along a near-equatorial trough can be
seen east of the Date Line near 6N175W. This system is not showing
signs of developing at this moment but the GFS, ECMWF and Navgem
Models are tracking it west-northwestward across Eastern Micronesia
while slowly developing it next week. Will definitely keep an eye on
it but decided not to include it in the forecast at this point.

Relatively dry conditions remain across Chuuk State eastward to
Kosrae this afternoon. A near-equatorial trough remains to the south
of the Marshalls with a weak circulation along the trough to the east
of Butaritari atoll. This system is generating scattered showers
across Majuro and Kwajalein this afternoon and is expected to
continue through tonight as the trough gradually drifts westward.
This will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to
Pohnpei Sunday through Monday night, however the activity associated
with the trough will remain to the north of Kosrae. Latest model
guidance continues to indicate the development of a disturbance late
next week as a weak circulation, currently east of the Date Line,
approaches the southern Marshall Islands. Confidence in this scenario
is low right now and this situation will be monitored closely over
the next week.

[TyphoonNara]

Shear seems to be decreasing on its way.

[Hayabusa]

Next name is Pabuk, 1997's 10th cat 5 typhoon on December was named Paka but Paka was named in CPAC

[euro6208]

GFS continues to show a weakening trend as it moves closer to the Marianas after peaking northeast of Saipan.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF is stronger.

[euro6208]

Just in time for the holidays.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Conective burst over center

[euro6208]

Invest 99C
As of 00:00 UTC Dec 09, 2018:

Location: 4.7°N 178.5°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1007 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM

[ManilaTC]

Not another Christmas typhoon.

Typhoon Nock-Ten, struck Christmas day in 2016.

[vortextracker]

https://imgur.com/AXSyxGc

GFS @T7+ on 168hrs

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Not another Christmas typhoon.

Typhoon Nock-Ten, struck Christmas day in 2016.

I remember two Christmas typhoons, that (Nina/Nock-ten) which took place shortly after Christmas, devastating my grandmother's best friends's city, which was Legaspi, and we were watching the footage of the howler whilst in the hospital. The other one was typhoon Nell (Puring) in 1993, which was notable for leaving Cebu City without power and water on Christmas Day.

[TyphoonNara]

99C INVEST 181209 0000 4.7N 178.5W CPAC 20 1005
It is about to enter the WPac.

[TyphoonNara]

Wind shear seems to be at its favour for now.

[euro6208]

99C INVEST 181209 0600 4.4N 178.1W CPAC 20 1006

Looking quite healthy.

[Hayabusa]

Models seem to backed off in intensity, Euro 00z just 1000mb+

[euro6208]

The weak tropical disturbance embedded along a near-equatorial trough
can be seen on ASCAT and VIS satellite imagery to be near 4N178W this
afternoon. Aided by divergent flow south of an upper-level ridge near
11N, pockets of convection have been flaring up near these features
from the Marshall Islands eastward to the Date Line. ECMWF guidance
is no longer developing this system into a tropical cyclone, instead
as a broad circulation or open trough tracking west-northwest near
10N across Micronesia this week and then toward the Mariana Islands
during the weekend. GFS and NavGem are still intensifying it into a
tropical cyclone, tracking it northwestward then being sheared
apart west of Wake Island. Decided to favor the ECMWF and introduced
cloudiness for this coming weekend.

[mrbagyo]

Hah, interesting system.
Marianas again?
If ever it's able to reach PAR, I would say its best chance of getting or staying at Ty status (if ever) is if it stays below 13N.
Goes more N = Death Sentence (Cold surge would rip it apart and send it to Oblivion)
Still very early though

[Hayabusa]

99C INVEST 181209 1800 3.5N 179.8W CPAC 20 1004
but JMA is 3 degrees longitude east (I mean west of the dateline, I just said east because west of the dateline longitude is labelled as East)
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 04N 177E WEST SLOWLY.

[euro6208]

A circulation could be found on Sunday night`s scatteroemter imagery
just east of the Date Line near 4N178W. Models still develop the
circulation but differ on what it will become and where it will
go. GFS and NAVGEM both show it passing to the east of the Marianas
and east of 155E by Friday. ECMWF and ICON have it passing south
of Guam next Sunday night. CMC has it going north of Saipan this
coming Saturday night. The strength of the circulation is also up
for debate as most models keep it fairly week. Not certain if it
will have any effect on the Marianas.