SPAC: OWEN - Post-tropical

[vortextracker]

00z ukmet thinks Owen is a looper.

https://imgur.com/MFeFNNu


BOM track



https://imgur.com/b88Eh3T

[wxman57]

An ASCAT pass around 11Z indicates 35+ kt winds only in the SE quadrant, which means it doesn't qualify for TC status according to the BoM guidelines (needs 35kt winds in 3 quadrants). Owen has peaked and is now weakening. Increasing shear will lead to continued weakening.

[TorSkk]

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1901 UTC 03/12/2018

Convection has continued to flare near the centre of tropical cyclone Owen
overnight, but it has become increasingly disorganised during the past 6 hours.
CIMSS satellite winds suggest that the deep layer wind shear over tropical
cyclone Owen has increased dramatically overnight, from approximately 15 knots
at 09UTC Monday to approximately 25 knots at 15UTC. This is consistent with
expectations as the system approaches an amplifying upper level trough to the
south.

Dvorak analysis is based on a curved band pattern, averaging 0.45 wrap during
the past few hours. DT is 2.5. MET is 3.5 and PT is 3.0. Final T 3.0 based on
PT. CI held up at 3.5 from the previous analysis. Intensity is held at 45 knots,
biased towards the 12Z ASCAT pass rather than the previous Dvorak analysis.
Objective estimates have decreased since the last bulletin, with the latest
SATCON estimating 51 knots [down from 56]. CMSS ADT has decreased from CI 3.7 to
CI 3.0. NESDIS ADT has decreased to CI 3.2.

All evidence suggests that the door has closed on the potential for Owen to
intensify any further. Numerical guidance suggests weakening from the current
time as deep layer wind shear increases further. The shearing of the system is
expected to coincide with the remnant vortex adopting a westerly track as it
succumbs to lower level steering influences.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 04/0130 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[wxman57]

Check the latest visible satellite. This is no TS or TD. BoM says 45 kts 10-min wind as of an hour ago. I don't think so... In addition, the BoM requires TS winds in 3 of the 4 quadrants to be classified as a TC. ASCAT from 12 hours ago had TS winds only to the SE of the center. Not sure why they're hanging onto it.

[vortextracker]

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Owen
Issued at 1:47 pm AEST Tuesday 4 December 2018. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

[TorSkk]

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
At 2pm AEST Friday, ex-tropical cyclone Owen was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 15.8 degrees south, longitude 151.0 degrees east, about 580 kilometres east-northeast of Cairns. This system is not expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone, but may approach the Queensland coast over the weekend and produce strong winds and heavy rainfall about the Central Coast and adjacent districts.

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 05P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.3S 150.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 150.7E, APPROXIMATELY
55 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 062333Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A MOSTLY
EXPOSED BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-
30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-
29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A WESTERLY TREND OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT CURRENTLY ONLY GFS IS SHOWING INTENSIFICATION
TO WARNING CRITERIA. THERE ARE STRONGER WINDS (25-35 KNOTS) LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WIND SURGE EVENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[vortextracker]

https://imgur.com/64ll4iN

Fairly good consensus the vorticity may reach the GOC.
Depending on conditions @ the time in the goc who knows.

[vortextracker]

00z EC thinks regeneration of Owen, run @965mb in GOC.


https://imgur.com/AZf4odJ

[TorSkk]

GFS is also showing significant strengthening in the GOC

[vortextracker]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 16.1S 140.3E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 11.12.2018 16.1S 140.3E WEAK

12UTC 11.12.2018 15.9S 139.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 12.12.2018 16.1S 139.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 12.12.2018 16.4S 139.0E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 13.12.2018 16.9S 140.0E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 13.12.2018 17.4S 141.7E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 14.12.2018 17.7S 144.1E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 14.12.2018 18.1S 147.2E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

Mets office is onboard also (ATM) with a cyclone in the gulf of carpentaria.

[TorSkk]

At 2pm AEST Sunday, ex-tropical cyclone Owen was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 16.0 degrees south, longitude 146.8 degrees east, about 150km northeast of Cairns. This system is not expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea, but is expected to approach and cross the North Tropical Queensland coast during the next 24 hours as a tropical low. A severe weather warning is current for coastal and adjacent inland areas between Port Douglas and Bowen for heavy rainfall and isolated damaging wind gusts associated with ex-tropical cyclone Owen.

GFS is really bullish on its redevelopment

[TorSkk]

05P OWEN 181209 1800 16.5S 145.0E SHEM 35 996

[vortextracker]

https://imgur.com/Fosxaw5

As always it will likely come down to how long the vort can stay over clear water without any land interaction in the GOC.

[vortextracker]

https://imgur.com/h70YBmU

HPA@ 945 GFS thinks there will be a excellent outflow point into the str jet.

[TorSkk]

[WAcyclone]

The five-day forecast by the BOM predicts Owen to reach Cat 3 in the eastern gulf and making landfall between Kowanyama and Normanton:

[vortextracker]

@1900hurricane ‏

Not quite sure about this, was stronger than the analysis?

https://imgur.com/Dl1FrZP



https://imgur.com/iEQagz0

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, I'd say chances are pretty good. I can't really get anything from that scatterometer pass, but the cyan ring on the microwave pass tells me it's probably a little stronger than JTWC's 30 kt and likely to intensify at a pretty good clip in the not so distant future. Conventional satellite presentation is lackluster at the moment so I'm not going too crazy, but microwave presentation alone makes me believe Owen is worthy of tropical storm/BOM category 1 classification.

[vortextracker]

Cheers n thankyou

[mrbagyo]

Looks good also from the Mornington on Radar


See : 256km Radar Loop for Mornington Island, 06:00 10/12/2018 to 06:00 11/12/2018 UTC