Texas Winter 2018-2019

[missygirl810]

No more Christmas snow miracle across Texas (even Houston) in the 12Z GFS run...

Booooooo. Well it was fun while it lasted. Can we filter his negative snow posts automatically?

I've always said here that the one good use of cold air is to produce snow. Otherwise, it might as well be 90 degrees. I like snow but not cold weather. If I believe it's really going to snow then I'll let you know. Otherwise, I prefer to think of myself as the voice of reason in these winter weather events. Now, let's see if I can bring some 90s into Texas for Christmas since it probably won't snow...

As long as you keep those 90's in Houston, go for it lol!!!

[Snowflake7]

No more Christmas snow miracle across Texas (even Houston) in the 12Z GFS run...

Booooooo. Well it was fun while it lasted. Can we filter his negative snow posts automatically?

I've always said here that the one good use of cold air is to produce snow. Otherwise, it might as well be 90 degrees. I like snow but not cold weather. If I believe it's really going to snow then I'll let you know. Otherwise, I prefer to think of myself as the voice of reason in these winter weather events. Now, let's see if I can bring some 90s into Texas for Christmas since it probably won't snow...

Dont you put that on us Ricky Bobby! We need snow please LOL

[Portastorm]

No more Christmas snow miracle across Texas (even Houston) in the 12Z GFS run...

Booooooo. Well it was fun while it lasted. Can we filter his negative snow posts automatically?

I've always said here that the one good use of cold air is to produce snow. Otherwise, it might as well be 90 degrees. I like snow but not cold weather. If I believe it's really going to snow then I'll let you know. Otherwise, I prefer to think of myself as the voice of reason in these winter weather events. Now, let's see if I can bring some 90s into Texas for Christmas since it probably won't snow...

You Texas winter weather lovers know that I'm your biggest fan ... but I have to chime in here and support Wxman57's post. He has gone on the record as saying he likes to see snow but otherwise, he'd prefer the hot stuff. And he has worked for many years on this forum to try and educate all of us enthusiasts about the scientific/computer model realities of winter weather prospects in Texas. His posts truly are the epitome of "keeping it real."

That being said, when you see Wxman57 talking about snow being a possibility ... then it's truly time to get excited!

[HockeyTx82]

Booooooo. Well it was fun while it lasted. Can we filter his negative snow posts automatically?

I've always said here that the one good use of cold air is to produce snow. Otherwise, it might as well be 90 degrees. I like snow but not cold weather. If I believe it's really going to snow then I'll let you know. Otherwise, I prefer to think of myself as the voice of reason in these winter weather events. Now, let's see if I can bring some 90s into Texas for Christmas since it probably won't snow...

You Texas winter weather lovers know that I'm your biggest fan ... but I have to chime in here and support Wxman57's post. He has gone on the record as saying he likes to see snow but otherwise, he'd prefer the hot stuff. And he has worked for many years on this forum to try and educate all of us enthusiasts about the scientific/computer model realities of winter weather prospects in Texas. His posts truly are the epitome of "keeping it real."

That being said, when you see Wxman57 talking about snow being a possibility ... then it's truly time to get excited!

Much respect to Wxman57. Just like poking the bear, which might not work out in my favor. He does keep us all inline and his posts, while the not what we want to hear, are very much appreciated.

[Brent]

18z NAM showing a snow band over the metroplex

[gpsnowman]

18z NAM showing a snow band over the metroplex

What time of day? I fully expect to stay awake if needed to see some wind driven wet flakes!!!!

[wxman57]

You Texas winter weather lovers know that I'm your biggest fan ... but I have to chime in here and support Wxman57's post. He has gone on the record as saying he likes to see snow but otherwise, he'd prefer the hot stuff. And he has worked for many years on this forum to try and educate all of us enthusiasts about the scientific/computer model realities of winter weather prospects in Texas. His posts truly are the epitome of "keeping it real."

That being said, when you see Wxman57 talking about snow being a possibility ... then it's truly time to get excited!

Thanks, Portastorm. I want to also be on record that this fall southern storm track pattern is one that may produce quite a bit of ice and snow across the Deep South this winter (should it continue). My cold-mongering co-worker is talking 1973-1974, where we had 3-4 snow events in Houston. I remember the snow in south Louisiana that winter, too. Unfortunately, this is not looking like my type of winter temperature-wise. However, I'll take 3-4 snow events any winter. If only it could snow in July...

[losf1981]

18z NAM showing a snow band over the metroplex

http://i66.tinypic.com/2cih8g0.png

Don't like this. Hardeman county and Clay count get some action while the majority of Wichita county gets shut out.

[cheezyWXguy]

A bit of a discrepancy between the NAM 12km and 3km. 3km's 2m temps are 6 degrees higher in the DFW area than the 12km, leading to a noticeable difference in amounts across the region (at hour 60, Dallas is at 36 on 12km, 42 on 3km). I think the 3km has a better handle on how convective bands will influence precip totals overall, but surface temps are really going to be on the fence.

Edit: Whats also weird, is that the NAM 12km shows the entire column over Dallas below freezing to just above the surface, but the 3km has a warm nose that raises the freezing level to almost 700mb! Is it really that different simply due to the difference in resolution?

[bubba hotep]

18z 12k NAM is a bit faster but soundings aren't as good looking as earlier runs. 3k NAM is showing wind gust pushing 60 mph across northern portions of DFW.

[dhweather]

I've always said here that the one good use of cold air is to produce snow. Otherwise, it might as well be 90 degrees. I like snow but not cold weather. If I believe it's really going to snow then I'll let you know. Otherwise, I prefer to think of myself as the voice of reason in these winter weather events. Now, let's see if I can bring some 90s into Texas for Christmas since it probably won't snow...

I like to think of you as the heat curmudgeon.

[orangeblood]

18z 12k NAM is a bit faster but soundings aren't as good looking as earlier runs. 3k NAM is showing wind gust pushing 60 mph across northern portions of DFW.

Not as deep, need to get to sub 540 DM at 500

[spencer817]

18z 12k NAM is a bit faster but soundings aren't as good looking as earlier runs. 3k NAM is showing wind gust pushing 60 mph across northern portions of DFW.

Not as deep, need to get to sub 540 DM at 500

EPS is good though, more members and higher mean.

[wxman57]

18Z NAM has an inch or two across the D-FW Metroplex. Those upper lows can be trouble, meaning very cold air aloft can lead to snow accumulations.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018121118/namconus_asnowd_scus_26.png

P.S. See? I didn't mention heat once in that post above. Well, I just did... OK, never mind.

[Texas Snow]

18Z NAM has an inch or two across the D-FW Metroplex. Those upper lows can be trouble, meaning very cold air aloft can lead to snow accumulations.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018121118/namconus_asnowd_scus_26.png

P.S. See? I didn't mention heat once in that post above. Well, I just did... OK, never mind.

The fact you aren't totally squashing it gives me at least a glimmer of hope

[DFWLady]

18Z NAM has an inch or two across the D-FW Metroplex. Those upper lows can be trouble, meaning very cold air aloft can lead to snow accumulations.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018121118/namconus_asnowd_scus_26.png

P.S. See? I didn't mention heat once in that post above. Well, I just did... OK, never mind.

Awww wxman you gave it your best shot! You just cant help it lol!

But let me just make sure I'm clear on this, did you, wxman57, our group realist just say that DFW could get 1 to 2 inches out of this? I only allow myself to get a bit excited/hopeful if you say its an actual possiblity lol!

[weatherdude1108]

Meanwhile, a tad windy Thursday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
302 PM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-120600-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
Including the cities of Llano, Burnet, Georgetown, Del Rio,
Rocksprings, Leakey, Kerrville, Bandera, Fredericksburg, Boerne,
Blanco, San Marcos, Austin, Bastrop, Giddings, Bracketville,
Uvalde, Hondo, San Antonio, New Braunfels, Seguin, Lockhart,
La Grange, Eagle Pass, Crystal City, Pearsall, Pleasanton,
Floresville, Karnes City, Gonzales, Cuero, Halletsville,
and Carrizo Springs
302 PM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

...Cold Front Will Bring Strong Northwest Winds on Thursday...

A cold front will result in very windy conditions across South
Central Texas on Thursday. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected
along the Rio Grande into portions of the Hill Country. These
wind speeds combined with cured winter grasses will result in
critical fire weather conditions near the Rio Grande and western
Hill Country and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for
portions of the area. Farther east, wind gusts between 30 to 40
mph across the I-35 corridor are expected. A Wind Advisory will
likely be needed across most of South Central Texas on Thursday.

[jaguars_22]

The RGEM model looks good for central texas if it keeps moving SE. Just keep on coming down towards the coast and tap into that gulf moisture... I believe the further south it goes the less cold air??

[Brent]

18z NAM showing a snow band over the metroplex

What time of day? I fully expect to stay awake if needed to see some wind driven wet flakes!!!!

Best shot looks to be after 10pm would be my guess

Oh and seeing wxman57 talking snow has me intrigued..

[cheezyWXguy]

DFW people are gonna like the 18z GFS...