Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Brent]

FWD now going snow likely in the metro

Getting more bullish

[bubba hotep]

FWD now going snow likely in the metro

Getting more bullish

Most be going all in on that US-75 Special the 18z GFS is advertising!

[weatherdude1108]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 112047
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
247 PM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday)... Abundant high cirrus will
continue to stream across the region this afternoon and tonight. In
addition, a return of low level moisture will lead to the development
of stratus overnight. Some patchy fog will also be possible across
southwestern areas of the CWA Wednesday morning. Mostly cloudy
conditions with a continued moistening trend will take place
Wednesday ahead of the next system.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Tuesday)...
A southern stream shortwave will move across Mexico Wednesday and
through the CWA Wednesday night. Models have continued to trend
wetter with this shortwave and associated front. Several hi
resolution models are now indicated light elevated perception well
west of I-35 through the Hill Country Wednesday evening, as well as
deeper surface based convection across eastern counties Wednesday
night. Have boosted PoPs slightly.

At the same time, a northern stream system will dive southeast out
of the Rockies Wednesday night, closing off into a deep, potent low
across north Texas on Thursday. Very strong west and northwesterly
925-850mb flow, around 45-55 kts, will wrap into western and central
areas of the CWA behind the front on Thursday. Dry adiabatic profiles
will allow for good mixing of momentum downward to the surface.
Strongest winds will be along the Rio Grande and over portions of
the Hill Country, where gusts between 40-50 mph are likely. Windy
conditions will also occur eastward into portions of the I-35
corridor, where wind gusts of 30-40 mph are likely. A Wind Advisory
will eventually be needed across most of the region on Thursday.

Of continued concern and uncertainty is the precipitation that wraps
around the back side and under the potent low. Several SREF members,
the 12Z NAM12, and 12Z ECMWF continue to show the possibility of
this precipitation into northern areas of the CWA late Thursday
afternoon and Thursday night. The 12Z deterministic GFS continues to
be just north of the area with the precip, and the Canadian an
outlier with the precip far to the northeast. Given the strength of
the dynamical forcing and mid level moisture pool available across
far northern areas, a reasonable chance exists that some of this
precip could wrap into far northern areas of the CWA. At this time we
will continue a slight chance of this happening in the forecast.
While winter precip is not explicitly indicated in the official
forecast at this time, if the farther south solutions verify we can`t
rule out light snow mixing in with the rain near and north of a
Kerrville to Johnson City to Jarrell line Thursday night, especially
given rapid cooling that can be underestimated under these strong,
dynamic cores. We have mentioned this uncertainty for now in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Weak shortwave ridging builds into the area Friday night into
Saturday with dry, seasonal conditions. Another upstream system
develops early to middle portion of next week. There is low
confidence with this system at this time on when precip chances
return back into the forecast next week.

&&

Fire Weather...
Very strong northwest flow will develop Thursday afternoon. Strongest
winds will be along the Rio Grande and over the Hill Country, where
gusts between 40-50 mph are likely. Windy conditions will also occur
eastward into portions of the I-35 corridor, where wind gusts of
30-40 mph are likely. Where lowest RH values coincide with strongest
winds will be across portions of the Rio Grande Plains, western Hill
Country, and Winter Garden regions. A Fire Weather Watch for critical
fire weather conditions has been issued for this region given the
forecast wind speeds and RH values combined with cured winter fuels.
Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will exist
elsewhere across South Central Texas Thursday.

[Ralph's Weather]

Friday morning around Tyler on the 18Z GFS shows saturation from 325-925mb with the low levels a bit drier. Surface temps in the upper 30s. That seems to indicate a rain snow mix leaning more snow in heavy bands.

[rwfromkansas]

Steve McCauley pretty high chances for Tarrant West at least.

[wxman57]

18Z NAM has an inch or two across the D-FW Metroplex. Those upper lows can be trouble, meaning very cold air aloft can lead to snow accumulations.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018121118/namconus_asnowd_scus_26.png

P.S. See? I didn't mention heat once in that post above. Well, I just did... OK, never mind.

Awww wxman you gave it your best shot! You just cant help it lol!

But let me just make sure I'm clear on this, did you, wxman57, our group really just say that DFW could get 1 to 2 inches out of this? I only allow myself to get a bit excited/hopeful if you say its an actual possiblity lol!

Don't confuse my posting that the NAM predicts 1-2 inches of snow as my own forecast. However, upper-level lows passing overhead have been known to produce some snow - if the air is cold enough aloft. This time, it may well be cold enough for some flakes.

[DFWLady]

18Z NAM has an inch or two across the D-FW Metroplex. Those upper lows can be trouble, meaning very cold air aloft can lead to snow accumulations.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018121118/namconus_asnowd_scus_26.png

P.S. See? I didn't mention heat once in that post above. Well, I just did... OK, never mind.

Awww wxman you gave it your best shot! You just cant help it lol!

But let me just make sure I'm clear on this, did you, wxman57, our group really just say that DFW could get 1 to 2 inches out of this? I only allow myself to get a bit excited/hopeful if you say its an actual possiblity lol!

Don't confuse my posting that the NAM predicts 1-2 inches of snow as my own forecast. However, upper-level lows passing overhead have been known to produce some snow - if the air is cold enough aloft. This time, it may well be cold enough for some flakes.

I accept this wxman. I will let myself get 5% hopeful lol but I will also believe it when I see it!

[Haris]

I am on board for snowfall in Dallas , Texas everyone. Enjoy!

On par with Jan 2017 IMO. Could be more significant but not ready to say much more

[Cerlin]

I am on board for snowfall in Dallas , Texas everyone. Enjoy!

On par with Jan 2017 IMO. Could be more significant but not ready to say much more

January 2017 brought me nothing in frisco...or at least, nothing on the ground. Hoping for more significance!

[Ralph's Weather]

I like the bullseye being SW of DFW at this point haha. Someone is gonna get a sloppy 4+ inches and maybe upwards of 8 inches if a bit more cold can be found. But the wind may be bigger story with gusts of 60mph possible.

[Quixotic]

I’m thinking of two storms in March 2008 that had no cold to work with but were Uber dynamic. Another is April of 1987 where it thunder snowed and despite temps around 40, we had accumulating snows. Wind fields up to 60 mph? That’s a dynamic storm and someone is going to get some snow. It will be big old lollipop with some areas getting 8” while everyone else gets cat paws.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z FV3 has shifted snow accumulations east a bit, back into the immediate DFW area.

[Yukon Cornelius]

18z NAM showing a snow band over the metroplex

http://i66.tinypic.com/2cih8g0.png

Don't like this. Hardeman county and Clay count get some action while the majority of Wichita county gets shut out.

I don’t think this is our area’s time to shine this go around.

[losf1981]

18z NAM showing a snow band over the metroplex

http://i66.tinypic.com/2cih8g0.png

Don't like this. Hardeman county and Clay count get some action while the majority of Wichita county gets shut out.

I don’t think this is our area’s time to shine this go around.

Bull! Weatherbug says 50% chance of snow on Thursday! LOL

[Ralph's Weather]

0Z NAM about is up to Thu morning. No major shift maybe a touch slower.

[Cpv17]

0Z NAM about is up to Thu morning. No major shift maybe a touch slower.

It looks a bit deeper to me on this run.

[Ralph's Weather]

0Z NAM about is up to Thu morning. No major shift maybe a touch slower.

It looks a bit deeper to me on this run.

Yep it is. Looked great until the frame you expected it to push into DFW haha. NAM hates DFW.

[Cpv17]

0Z NAM about is up to Thu morning. No major shift maybe a touch slower.

It looks a bit deeper to me on this run.

Yep it is. Looked great until the frame you expected it to push into DFW haha. NAM hates DFW.

Ralph, where’s your location?

[Brent]

Lol what is the nams problem with DFW

[cheezyWXguy]

Lol what is the nams problem with DFW

Seriously. Of at least the last four runs, the 0z has the deepest system, yet has the warmest surface temps?