Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Lagreeneyes03]

The DFW folks are going to want a faster system that's stronger and further to the east of them so that cold air advection can be maximized. Here's the thing, if the Wrf and even the NAM models to a certain degree there's going to be a train of cold air advection moving almost due north to south . There is a snow pack in northern North Dakota and just north of there in southern Canada. There's also a light snow pack in Nebraska(according to the GFS). This means that the cold air will still moderate, but probably at a slower rate. The cold air will likely be moving southward fast too. The stronger this low is, the more it can pull this cold air from the north.

Basically this is going to be a bang bang storm, but, if it's faster(It's best for the snow to happen at night) further east, and stronger, then I believe DFW will be in for a surprise. If the 0z Wrf models are correct then the cold air advection will be fairly impressive and the storm will be very dynamic.

What are the chances that WRF is correct? I know the last storm overperformed in West Texas, so there's hope?

[SoupBone]

No more Christmas snow miracle across Texas (even Houston) in the 12Z GFS run...

Was Houston ever even in consideration?

[Brent]

the Euro's bullseye is out by Eastland again and matches FWD's forecast well of nada in the metro

we definitely need a faster motion to have a shot

[rwfromkansas]

We will cash in at some point but it's going to be frustrating that people west of us have had now two events and us nothing.

[bubba hotep]

the Euro's bullseye is out by Eastland again and matches FWD's forecast well of nada in the metro

we definitely need a faster motion to have a shot

13"! Lol

[orangeblood]

Pretty drastic differences from the Ops vs WRF models snow output

[Brent]

Pretty drastic differences from the Ops vs WRF models snow output

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2018121212/wrf-arw_asnow_scus_48.png

Well lets go wrf arw

[Cpv17]

I can’t quite remember this so correct me if I’m wrong, but last year when it snowed down here in southeast Texas, College Station picked up 5” and I don’t remember seeing any of the models (at this range) even showing snow up that far north. If I remember correctly, all the models had the snow way further south closer to the coast and College Station ended up seeing more snow than anyone, I believe.

[Brent]

I can’t quite remember this so correct me if I’m wrong, but last year when it snowed down here in southeast Texas, College Station picked up 5” and I don’t remember seeing any of the models (at this range) even showing snow up that far north. If I remember correctly, all the models had the snow way further south closer to the coast and College Station ended up seeing more snow than anyone, I believe.

I do remember that because I remember when it happened I almost got in the car and went that way

I still expect there to be surprises tomorrow(look at Lubbock on Saturday), I'm just not sure it'll be in the metro or not

[EnnisTx]

Enough of this nonsense about you folks in South Texas getting snow from this one. You had your numerous shots last year. It's our turn!!

[Cpv17]

Enough of this nonsense about you folks in South Texas getting snow from this one. You had your numerous shots last year. It's our turn!!

You guys will have multiple opportunities for snow this winter with the way this southern storm track has been. It would almost be a miracle if y’all don’t see any snow this winter.

[weatherdude1108]

I'll be driving up to Georgetown tomorrow (Thursday) after work to my daughter's dance recital, meeting my wife and daughter there. I got used to this when I lived in west Texas. But this area isn't as used to these kinds of winds. Wish me luck! I have visions of debris and trash floating around the highways.



URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
200 PM CST Wed Dec 12 2018

TXZ171>173-183>192-202>207-217>222-228-131200-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WI.Y.0002.181213T1600Z-181214T0600Z/
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Kinney-Uvalde-Medina-Bexar-
Comal-Guadalupe-Maverick-Zavala-Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-
Dimmit-

Including the cities of Llano, Burnet, Georgetown, Del Rio,
Rocksprings, Leakey, Kerrville, Bandera, Fredericksburg, Boerne,
Blanco, San Marcos, Austin, Bracketville, Uvalde, Hondo,
San Antonio, New Braunfels, Seguin, Eagle Pass, Crystal City,
Pearsall, Pleasanton, Floresville, Karnes City,
and Carrizo Springs

200 PM CST Wed Dec 12 2018
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a
Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 10 AM Thursday to midnight
CST Thursday night.

* WINDS...Northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts between 40 and 50 mph
in many areas.

* IMPACTS...Lawn decorations and trash cans not secured could be
blown around and damaged. Small limbs could break. Driving could
be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Secure
loose objects that could be blown around. Use extra caution while
driving, especially if in a high profile vehicle."

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... x&wwa=wind advisory

[Cpv17]

This is way out there, but it looks like the models have backed off on the cold air for later this month that it was showing a couple days ago.

[gboudx]

Enough of this nonsense about you folks in South Texas getting snow from this one. You had your numerous shots last year. It's our turn!!

You guys will have multiple opportunities for snow this winter with the way this southern storm track has been. It would almost be a miracle if y’all don’t see any snow this winter.

Thanks. You just jinxed us. This is like when the Saints played the Ravens and the announcers talked about how many PAT's Justin Tucker had made just before he missed the PAT and the Saints won.

[Brent]

Enough of this nonsense about you folks in South Texas getting snow from this one. You had your numerous shots last year. It's our turn!!

You guys will have multiple opportunities for snow this winter with the way this southern storm track has been. It would almost be a miracle if y’all don’t see any snow this winter.

.

Thats what people said last year too

[dhweather]

Probability of events, from most likely to least likely, in my humble opinion:

1) Surface temps stay above freezing
2) High winds
3) Rain
4) Thunderstorms
5) Small hail
6) Isolated tornado
7) Some snowflakes mixed in with rain
8) 1" or more of accumulating snow
9) wxman57 professing his love of bitterly cold weather
10) ntxw giving up weather as a hobby
11) Me winning this weeks powerball

[Captmorg70]

Probability of events, from most likely to least likely, in my humble opinion:

1) Surface temps stay above freezing
2) High winds
3) Rain
4) Thunderstorms
5) Small hail
6) Isolated tornado
7) Some snowflakes mixed in with rain
8) 1" or more of accumulating snow
9) wxman57 professing his love of bitterly cold weather
10) ntxw giving up weather as a hobby
11) Me winning this weeks powerball

I think somewhere towards the top belongs:

•DFW folks that say it will never snow in Dallas again
•People south of DFW saying it’s okay y’all will get yalls snow this year

[DFWLady]

Probability of events, from most likely to least likely, in my humble opinion:

1) Surface temps stay above freezing
2) High winds
3) Rain
4) Thunderstorms
5) Small hail
6) Isolated tornado
7) Some snowflakes mixed in with rain
8) 1" or more of accumulating snow
9) wxman57 professing his love of bitterly cold weather
10) ntxw giving up weather as a hobby
11) Me winning this weeks powerball

You forgot one
12 DFW seeing snow lol

No seriously, I love your list lol! DFW will get ours, yeah it sucks waiting, but it will make it even more magical when it does happen!

[Portastorm]

Hang in there you Metroplexers. Like others, I feel confident you are going to have a heckuva fun winter with plenty of snow/ice opportunities. You'll end up doing much better when we compare notes in March than the rest of us.

[EnnisTx]

Probability of events, from most likely to least likely, in my humble opinion:

1) Surface temps stay above freezing
2) High winds
3) Rain
4) Thunderstorms
5) Small hail
6) Isolated tornado
7) Some snowflakes mixed in with rain
8) 1" or more of accumulating snow
9) wxman57 professing his love of bitterly cold weather
10) ntxw giving up weather as a hobby
11) Me winning this weeks powerball

You should most likely remove the last 3!!!