WPAC: INVEST 94W

[cycloneye]

Location: 9.3°N 174.1°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0N
174.5E, APPROXIMATELY 402 NM EAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW TO
MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE (28-30C) IN THE EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW WEAK DEVELOPMENT MOVING TO THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST, WITH NAVGEM SHOWING THE MOST AND MAINTAINING A
CIRCULATION THAT MOVES TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[TyphoonNara]

Is this the other center of circulation of 99C?

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 174.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 169.5E, APPROXIMATELY 120
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, A 120407Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 112219Z METOP-A
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICT A SHARP WAVE WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY WITHIN THE CONVERGENT TROPICAL EASTERLIES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE (28-30C) IN THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW WEAK DEVELOPMENT AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[wxman57]

Is this the other center of circulation of 99C?

Yes, same system as 99C. Now it's in the West Pacific and has a new identifier.

[TyphoonNara]

Looks really bad even for an invest.

[euro6208]

Models fail...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.7N 169.5E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[TyphoonNara]

Models fail...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.7N 169.5E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

It seems the models have failed repeatedly for numerous invests since late November.