CSU --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/si ... 018-12.pdf --- December 13 Seasonal Forecast
... https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/si ... 019-04.pdf --- April 4 forecast --- 13/5/2
... https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/si ... 019-06.pdf --- June 4 forecast --- 14/6/2
... https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/si ... 019-07.pdf ---July 9 forecast--- 14/6/2
... https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/si ... 9-0805.pdf ---2 week forecast from AUG 5 - AUG 18--- Inactive
... https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/si ... 019-08.pdf --- Total Seasonal Forecast --- 14/7/2
https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/si ... 9-0819.pdf --- 2 week forecast from AUG 19 - SEP 1 --- Inactive
https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/si ... 9-0903.pdf --- 2 week forecast frpm Sep 3 - Sep 16 --- Active
https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/si ... 9-0917.pdf --- 2 week forecast from Sep 17 - Sep 30 --- Active
https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/si ... 9-1001.pdf --- 2 week forecsst from Oct 1- Oct 14 --- Active
TSR --- https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... ec2019.pdf --- December 11 --- 11/5/2
--- http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... pr2019.pdf --- April 5 --- 12/5/2
... http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... n2019.pdf/ --- May 30 --- 12/6/2
... https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... ly2019.pdf July 4 --- 12/6/2
... https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... ug2019.pdf August 6 --- 13/6/2
NOAA https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa ... ane-season May 23--- Between 9-15 named storms
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... cane.shtml --- August 8 --- Between 10-17 named storms
ACCUWEATHER --- https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- ... t/70007852 --- April 4 --- 12-14 named storms
JOE BASTARDI --- March 24 --- 10-15 named storms
The Weather Channel --- May 6 --- https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... m-business 14/7/3
Below are CSU extracts
average Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) activity of ~ 170) – 10% chance.
2. AMO is above average and no El Niño occurs (ACE ~ 130) – 25% chance.
3. AMO is above average and El Niño develops (ACE ~ 80) – 20% chance.
4. AMO is below average and no El Niño occurs (ACE ~ 80) – 30% chance.
5. AMO is below average and El Niño develops (ACE ~ 50) – 15% chance.
Summary
There is always considerable uncertainty as to how much activity an Atlantic
hurricane season is going to generate at such a long forecast lead time. We detail in this
outlook two key parameters that are critical for determining levels of Atlantic hurricane
activity: North Atlantic SSTs and ENSO. Currently, tropical and far North Atlantic SSTs
are slightly cooler than normal, but the CSU AMO index is at near average levels due to
anomalously low pressure averaged across the North Atlantic. The tropical Pacific is
currently characterized by warm neutral ENSO conditions. Most models predict that a
weak to moderate El Niño will develop in the next few months. There is considerable
uncertainty as to whether any El Niño does develop will persist through next year’s
hurricane season. We are closely monitoring these conditions and will have additional
extensive discussion with our early April outlook.