#9 Postby TyphoonNara » Sun Dec 16, 2018 11:04 pm
170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 82.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B (PHETHAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ERODE AS IT APPROACHED THE WEST
COAST OF INDIA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP AND
LINED UP WITH DISCERNIBLE LLC FEATURES IN THE 161945Z AMSR AND
162253Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING STATE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (10-15 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 08B
WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, MAKING
LANDFALL JUST BEFORE TAU 12 SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. INTERACTION
WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES IN ADDITION TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF
THE TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 24. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//
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