Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

Looks like the Euro is showing a deeper trough than the previous run:

[SFLcane]

Potential wind advisory could be issued!

[chaser1]

Are we going through a tropical storm or what is going on here?

http://i65.tinypic.com/2iqyihc.png

That's pretty radical?! Gusts to 50 mph or more, for nearly ALL S. Florida from Cape Coral to Titusville southward this Thursday?? Plus, look at those projected winds over the water?! I just have to think the EURO is overplaying the event just a bit. Kinda like "Storm of the Century's" weaker sister LOL.

[boca]

The March storm of 1993 had crazy winds like that but I don’t see that happening with this system.i just read the forecast the highest gusts on Thursday is 31mph and 34 mph on Friday.

[FlaWeatherDude]

[imgur]http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/DewPoint/usa.jpg[/imgur]

If image doesn't work click here. http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/DewPoint/usa.jpg

Right now sub-40 degree dewpoints are mixing down across orlando. I sure it'll modify when that warm from advances northward late tommorrow. Though mid-level dry air could add futher to the instability on Thursday I would think.

[northjaxpro]

I think NWS will pull the trigger on a wind advisory on Thursday through Friday. The amplification of the very strong upper trough on early Friday will deepen the pressure gradient and the expansive wind field will warrant issuance of wind advisories from the WFOs. Winds will gust up to over 35mph in gusts during Thursday into the day on Friday.

Also, the development of the initial squall line moving out of the Gulf of Mexico and where it moves will be the other big situation.



The latest 18Z GFS run shows the potential severe thunderstorm squall line from Fort Myers northeast across central peninsula to Titusville. This will probably shift the next 24 hours. However, where that line sets up will be something to watch on Thursday.

[SFLcane]

Ridiculous winds here across mainland SFL..

[boca]

Ridiculous winds here across mainland SFL..

http://i65.tinypic.com/25hzj8w.jpg

What source is that info from?

[northjaxpro]

The March storm of 1993 had crazy winds like that but I don’t see that happening with this system.i just read the forecast the highest gusts on Thursday is 31mph and 34 mph on Friday.

Heck no. This system coming in Thursday and Friday is impressive. HOWEVER, it is nowhere near the March 1993 Superstorm. The 1993 Superstorm was a much larger,extremely powerful, mid-latitude cyclone. An all-timer! Wind gusted over 50 mph, plus record storm surge in Apalachee Bay, and records were set for barometric pressures here across North Florida at the peak of the event. Also, tornadoes ripped through the entire peninsula during that event. A top 3 on my personal list of all time weather events I both experienced and covered.

There is no comparison to that event for yours truly outside of any significant hurricane or certainly major hurricanes i.e. Michael etc...

[SFLcane]

Ridiculous winds here across mainland SFL..

http://i65.tinypic.com/25hzj8w.jpg

What source is that info from?

https://weather.us/model-charts

[boca]

It’s cool to talk about a weather event for South Florida out of hurricane season.

[psyclone]

The severe risk is definitely weighted east and south compared to the last couple of events. As of now I am out of that zone (although close). Max QPF estimates have consistently resided near the northern portion and just north of the severe risk...so the whole peninsula is in line for a bucketload of rain and or a severe threat with a gale thereafter. that's a lot of active weather. It looks like this may be the last in a parade of storm systems for awhile with some 80 degree days after Christmas.

[northjaxpro]

I posted a thread I created earlier from 2017, to reflect earler this year on the Silver Anniversary of the Great March 1993 Superstorm. Truly an awesome weather event of a lifetime..........................

Link
viewtopic.php?f=24&t=118655

[HURRICANELONNY]

https://www.foxnews.com/weather/polar-vortex-ma

y-be-on-the-horizon-scientists-warn.amp
I don't understand this story. Mayne someone could elaborate on this story

[HURRICANELONNY]

Ah crap. I did that site on my phone.Not only can't I spell the link on foxnews.com is bad. Anyways the story was talking about the Polar Vortex coming towards end of the year. Talks about the stratosphere and troposphere warming. Said could be strongest in decades.

[AdamFirst]

Timing looks to be into the evening and overnight hours for South Florida on Thursday into Friday.

Needless to say it's going to be a lively event from start to finish, from the increased wind to the squall itself. The wind is slated to crank up during the day on Thursday ahead of the squall.

[chaser1]

https://www.foxnews.com/weather/polar-vortex-ma

y-be-on-the-horizon-scientists-warn.amp
I don't understand this story. Mayne someone could elaborate on this story

Bad link, but I did a search and found it on the FOX news site. It was basically just click-bait. Not actually reporting any new "news" and just repeating previously stated conjecture by "some Climate Scientists" stating that the E. Conus might be in store for a brutal Winter. While I personally do agree with that assessment, there was no new news or data to support the article or the topic itself.

[FlaWeatherDude]

I posted a thread I created earlier from 2017, to reflect earler this year on the Silver Anniversary of the Great March 1993 Superstorm. Truly an awesome weather event of a lifetime..........................

Link
viewtopic.php?f=24&t=118655

That was some triple phaser! I believe only three times have three branches of the jet stream perfectly phased into one mega storm. The blizzard of March 1960(when the GFS fist came out), the blizzard of 78(which stalled and looped over the 40/70 benchmark in February of that year dumping record snowfall over Boston), and that superstorm in March 93 which beat em all(at least in intensity)!

[chaser1]

Ridiculous winds here across mainland SFL..

http://i65.tinypic.com/25hzj8w.jpg

I'm perplexed by the Euro forecast clearly having a much tighter surface wind-field gradient then depicted by the GFS or Mesoscale models. At least presently, it sure doesnt seem to have influenced any of our local NWS offices to have incorporated those forecast winds into their forecasts. Imagine if it were to verify though?

[HurricaneBelle]

Outstanding AFD just out from Tampa NWS, going into detail about what they expect from the system and lengthy discussion of the various hazards it poses. It's too long to quote here so I'll just link it: https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KTBW/1812190128.fxus62.html