Texas Winter 2018-2019

[orangeblood]

Exiting Phase 4, entering Phase 5....now the fun begins, typically the higher the amplitude the better when moving into these favorable phases during an El Nino!!!!!

[Brent]

winter storm setting up at day 10 on the Euro. This fits the timeframe of the weekend leading into New Years thats been discussed

even without a storm it looks like it'll turn much colder after the post-Christmas storm

[Cpv17]

It looks like things will get a bit interesting after Christmas especially Dec 28-31. Looks to be a major storm system that’ll be moving in. Looks like snow for west Texas and the mountains in Mexico and rain for the rest of us as of right now. The movement of the cold air seems fishy to me though so we’ll see!

[Haris]

I’m in Florida from Dec 29 - 5th.

NO WINTER STORM between then please ! Thanks

The euro also brings back the heavy rain potential mid week

[wxman57]

I’m in Florida from Dec 29 - 5th.

NO WINTER STORM between then please ! Thanks

The euro also brings back the heavy rain potential mid week

No winter in Texas this year, got it!

[Brent]

I’m in Florida from Dec 29 - 5th.

NO WINTER STORM between then please ! Thanks

The euro also brings back the heavy rain potential mid week

No winter in Texas this year, got it!

oh dont you wish

[BrokenGlass]

I’m in Florida from Dec 29 - 5th.

NO WINTER STORM between then please ! Thanks

The euro also brings back the heavy rain potential mid week

No winter in Texas this year, got it!

oh dont you wish

Shhh. Let him anger the gods.


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[missygirl810]

Anyone thought about a sacrifice at this point??

No winter in Texas this year, got it!

oh dont you wish

Shhh. Let him anger the gods.


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[dhweather]

I’m in Florida from Dec 29 - 5th.

NO WINTER STORM between then please ! Thanks

The euro also brings back the heavy rain potential mid week

No winter in Texas this year, got it!

There's the wxman57 we know and love.

[Haris]

I’m in Florida from Dec 29 - 5th.

NO WINTER STORM between then please ! Thanks

The euro also brings back the heavy rain potential mid week

No winter in Texas this year, got it!

No, I only* said 6 days. LOL

[bubba hotep]

One of the better runs of the Euro Weeklies in a while with the control run blasting N. Texas with snow.

[bubba hotep]

The models have backed off on the retrograde across the NPAC and are no longer building higher height anomalies into WCAN/Alaska. That really limits the source of our cold air.

48 hrs ago (5 day avg)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2018121300/gfs-ens_z500aNormMean_npac_12.png

00z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2018121500/gfs-ens_z500aNormMean_npac_10.png

This is consistent with the models also stalling the MJO out in P4.

https://i.ibb.co/VMmYSbG/MJO4.png

However, this could set up an active svr wx pattern the last week of the month.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2018121500/gfs-ens_apcpna_namer_10.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2018121500/gfs-ens_z500aNormMean_namer_12.png

Of course everyone remembers this day.

https://i.ibb.co/6bFFPC4/122615.png

https://media.nbcdfw.com/images/1200*675/tornado-rowlett-texas.jpg

Starting to see some more signs of svr wx around the 26th+/- a day.

[Brent]

GFS real close to a winter storm for NYE into New Years Day

and yes I wouldnt be surprised if Wednesday has some severe wx

[Brent]

snowstorm at the end of the Euro especially west but almost to DFW Dec 29-30, the snow literally stops at the metro

[Cpv17]

0z Euro has snow near SA and Austin.

[Yukon Cornelius]

colder than forecasted this morning. The forecast was for a low of 35, it’s currently 29.

[wxman57]

I’m in Florida from Dec 29 - 5th.

NO WINTER STORM between then please ! Thanks

The euro also brings back the heavy rain potential mid week

No winter in Texas this year, got it!

No, I only* said 6 days. LOL

Oh, sorry. I misunderstood.

Today is a very sad day - the winter solstice. On the bright side, the days get longer and longer after today, meaning spring/summer are not as far off.

Checking the EC & GFS, both indicate some winter weather across Texas around the 29th-30th, though both indicate that the winter precip will stay west of the D-FW area and WELL northwest of Houston. Another marginal event for most of you. There just isn't a mechanism (yet) for bringing much colder air out of Canada. While I do like to see snow, I do not like to see upper 30s (or 40s) and rain. Best chances of any snow will be mid January to about the third week of February.

[weatherdude1108]

Happy Winter Solstice!

[Cpv17]

For the first time in a long time, the old GFS looks more interesting than the new one

[Ntxw]

EPS and GEFS rolling forward are now beginning to show the big -NAO/-AO over the polar regions and NATL. Also possible is the reflection of SSW, while I don't think we see severe cold with this SSW it will likely dislodge more cold air into the -NAO pattern. The Aleutian low also retrogrades from Alaska to form the snowier/colder weak-mod Nino look that we had a taste of late November and early December. Dec 28-31 will give a glimpse of colder air as the Pacific buckles some and less zonal, but the real fun likely happens the second week of January.

If you want to see a repeat of '78 then having the Hudson->Greenland west based NAO go crazy helps