Florida Weather

[floridasun78]

very windy here in miami wind round 35mph could not open car door that well because windy weather

[TheStormExpert]

Peak wind gusts for the Palm Beaches and Treasure Coast we’re in the 40’s and 50’s.

[TheStormExpert]

Could get cold here in January if the polar vortex materializes:
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- ... s/70006934

The Weather Company is calling for below average temperatures for all of the SE including Florida from January-March. They also show that February could be our coldest month of the winter.

Yahoo!!!! Bring it on!!!

Here is the Temperature Anomaly map showing the dark blues overspreading all of the SE U.S. for January-March and February alone.

[TheStormExpert]

After a Christmas and New Years warm-up the stage maybe setting up for cooler weather come CPC’s Temperature Outlook for weeks 3-4.

[gatorcane]

Wow the GFS and FV3 GFS are both showing a significant arctic outbreak / large scale deep troughing into the Eastern third of the US and Florida in the long range. Need to monitor as we have entered the time of year Florida is vulnerable.

[NDG]

All I know is that the Euro is advertising a nice warm up for us through the next 10 days with the Caribbean Ridge building close to FL before possibly the pattern change for a much colder January for entire eastern US as many are predicting.

[gatorcane]

12Z FV3 GFS looking real cold and timeframe is coming in some. That SE ridge gets squashed. Still way out there though but something to monitor:

[chaser1]

All I know is that the Euro is advertising a nice warm up for us through the next 10 days with the Caribbean Ridge building close to FL before possibly the pattern change for a much colder January for entire eastern US as many are predicting.

I'm looking forward to the possibility of a much colder January For the sake of discussion though, I'm curious whether other mitigating factors would affect just how cold we here in Florida could get. Supposedly if Stratospheric warming took place and were to lead to a Southward (Canadian) displacement of the Polar Vortex then deep troughing over the E. Conus could very well mean cold conditions for us. Of course if a southern (El Nino-like) jet stubbornly cut eastward across the gulf then the real cold could be still kept just to our north but so far I don't see evidence of that taking place.

So what I wonder is, even if the mid levels are the primary driver for an arctic outbreak (and assuming surface high pressure ensures a northwest to north flow), just how much less of a cold impact would Florida feel if there were a "less then average" snow pack over the Eastern U.S. in place?? Naturally the less cold air were able to moderate before reaching us, the colder it would be. Just wondering whether we're talking about 3-4 degrees or as much as 15 or more degrees F?

[psyclone]

The trend in the cpc extended outlooks is trending downward so it makes sense that we're going to cool down again after our medium term warm up. The weather's been kind of lousy lately so some warm and sunny days will be a welcome respite for many.

[FlaWeatherDude]

By Thurday Orlando's back around 80 for highs and 60's for lows plus dewpoints will be back in the 60's by then too. til then nice weather through Xmas!

The most extream case of an #SSW affecting Florida was around late January 1985. In fact, January 20th of that year Orlando only saw a high of 36 despite full sunshine and mixing(in fact it was blustery)! The coldest low was 19 degrees also with winchills!

[northjaxpro]

By Thurday we're back around 80 for highs and 60's for lows plus dewpoints will be back in the 60's by then too. til then nice weather through Xmas!

The most extream case of an #SSW affecting Florida was around late January 1985. In fact, January 20th of that year Orlando only saw a high of 36 despite full sunshine and mixing(in fact it was blustery)! The coldest low was 19 degrees also with winchills!

Yes indeed. I remember that event all too well. The coldest single day on record for Jacksonville and many areas. Jax set the all-time. record low here that morning, which is 7 degrees. The only time in my life living. here where everything froze over.

[FlaWeatherDude]

By Thurday we're back around 80 for highs and 60's for lows plus dewpoints will be back in the 60's by then too. til then nice weather through Xmas!

The most extream case of an #SSW affecting Florida was around late January 1985. In fact, January 20th of that year Orlando only saw a high of 36 despite full sunshine and mixing(in fact it was blustery)! The coldest low was 19 degrees also with winchills!

Yes indeed. I remember that event all too well. The coldest single day on record for Jacksonville and many areas. Jax set the all-time. record low here that morning, which is 7 degrees. The only time in my life living. here where everything froze over.

I was around five months old in New England then lol.

[northjaxpro]

......

[FlaWeatherDude]

12z Euro is calling for a southern stream storm next weekend/early the following week followed by a frontal passage sometime on New Years Eve. The GFS disagrees, keeping energy held back out west and keeping the SE ridge strong until the end of new years week when it also portrays a pattern flip. I think early-mid January onward is when things start getting fridget over the eastern two/thirds!

[chaser1]

squirrel

[northjaxpro]

12z Euro is calling for a southern stream sorm next weekend/early the following week followed by a frontal passage sometime on New Years Eve. The GFS disagrees, keeping energy held back out west and keeping the SE ridge strong until the end of new years week when it also portrays a pattern flip. I think early-mid January onward is when things start getting fridget over the eastern two/thirds!

The GFS has been doing well lately. It performed admirably with the two big recent events across the Deep South pertaining to the12/8-12/10 NC/VA winter storm and the 12/20- 12/21 storm. I am sticking with it as to what the pattern looks to be doing. I think the GFS will be right about the Southeast Ridge next week leading into New Year's Day.
This ridge looks to temporarily hold off the big cold until after New Year's Day here across Florida. It should stay mild to warm across the peninsula for the period. Christmas to New Year's Day.

January 3- 5 in the long range seems to be the target date range of when the cold air plunge filters into the Deep South.

Also, another thing to watch is the active southern jet stream in the first week of January. This is the time frame the GFS. is targeting with regards to potentially another disturbance riding the southern jet.. It will come down as always, to timing and other factors and if things come together, it could potentially get interesting once again in areas of the Southeast U.S. , especially if youare a winter precip enthusiast.

Just something to potentially monitor over the next 10 to 12 days.. Lots will change with the guidance runs of course.

[northjaxpro]

Heavy frost and 35.3 degrees here at my home this morning. It will be a very nice, sunny, early winter day across the region. Temps will recover for daytime high here in the Jax metro into the low to mid 60s.

It looks to be very pleasant weather the first half of this week through Christmas on Tuesday. However, it appears by Thursday as ridging returns on southerly flow back into the peninsula. The warm , moist pattern will return, along with rain chances Thursday into next weekend.

[NDG]

12z Euro is calling for a southern stream sorm next weekend/early the following week followed by a frontal passage sometime on New Years Eve. The GFS disagrees, keeping energy held back out west and keeping the SE ridge strong until the end of new years week when it also portrays a pattern flip. I think early-mid January onward is when things start getting fridget over the eastern two/thirds!

0z Euro is back to no fropa for New Year's Eve.

[gatorcane]

It does looks really nice across Florida through at least New Year’s as the SE ridge flexes its muscle. But as we head into January big changes are being hinted at by the GFS which would bring much below normal temperatures back to Florida and possibly freeze threats.

[chaser1]

12z Euro is calling for a southern stream sorm next weekend/early the following week followed by a frontal passage sometime on New Years Eve. The GFS disagrees, keeping energy held back out west and keeping the SE ridge strong until the end of new years week when it also portrays a pattern flip. I think early-mid January onward is when things start getting fridget over the eastern two/thirds!

You're so right. GFS FV3 is that much more on-board with a major cold outbreak around the Dec. 5th - 8th similar to that indicated by the GFS time frame. Hear that Floridian's? Time to break out those Parkas out of moth-balls. I hardly would call the brief moderating temps over the next week as "blow-torch" hot either. Temps will overall be comfortable but certainly not looking like any prolonged period of warmth like much of last winter felt like. Evolving Stratospheric conditions that will ultimately hint toward a very cold Eastern U.S. for most of January still seems a little nebulous though. A significant southward shift of the Polar Vortex could either present itself as a "split" vortex" OR one singular southward shift. The latter does not necessarily mean that shift will occur in the W. Hemisphere (verses the E. Hemisphere). Still early to tell how (or if) the shift to a colder pattern might last for Eastern U.S.