tolakram wrote:I'm getting ... not upset, but mildly annoyed at the same old twitter sources cherry picking the data. So far we have a continued weak el nino and a stuck record of ... look at this, if this verifies look out! Has any of these look out's verified yet?
![Laughing :lol:](./images/smilies/icon_lol.gif)
I agree that any proclamations need to be tapered down until proven other wise. To their defense, there's a lot of evidence and proof that if the MJO reaches the high amplification in the areas that the GFS is showing, a strong downwelling Kelvin wave is triggered. Seen this happen in 1997, 2014, 2015, and 2018.
Oceanic heat content is half of ENSO. Now of course as we learned this year, you can have all the warmth at the subsurface but the upper level winds have to couple and allow the warm anomalies to surface.
So if such a situation happens again this year, we should be at continued El Nino watch but Atlantic hurricane numbers should remain untouched until an El Nino (if any!) is verified.