Texas Winter 2018-2019

[weatherdude1108]

18z 12k NAM

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018123018/namconus_asnow_scus_29.png

Oof, if that were to verify it would be a nightmareish ice storm for the Hill Country/Austin.

That would shut down Austin for a few days.

[Texas Snow]

My pinpoint forecast now shows 50% rain/sleet Wednesday with 30% Sleet Snow Wednesday night. HIgh 36 low 28.

They also have a graphic up saying confidence is increasing but amounts unknown.

AFDFWD:

The upper low is now progged by all medium range models (including
the GFS) to deepen over Eastern Arizona/New Mexico Tuesday night,
resulting in moist isentropic ascent over the shallow Arctic air.
Initially precipitation will start out as light rain across
Central Texas Tuesday evening, but as temperatures fall to
freezing, a mix of rain and freezing rain will become more likely.
The good news is that surface temperatures where most of the
precipitation falls Tuesday night will likely remain above 30
degrees so impacts through sunrise Wednesday should be minimal.
There are still some model differences with regards to temperature
profiles and moisture return with the ECMWF and NAM being the
coldest and most aggressive with moisture return over the cold
air. One thing all models do agree on is that initially a light
freezing rain/rain mix will be the most likely precipitation types
Wednesday morning due to a substantial warm nose in place. The
precipitation type becomes a bit more uncertain through the day
Wednesday as the core of the upper low moves into West Texas. The
combination of dynamic cooling and some wet bulb cooling will
likely result in a transition to light sleet, possibly followed by
brief light snow. The impacts from this precipitation are
difficult to assess this far out since locations that see the most
precipitation will likely be above freezing for much of the day.
For now, we will keep ice and snow accumulations very light since
there is still model disagreement on the strength and track of the
upper low and all models continue to advertise relatively low
QPF.

The upper low is progged to lift northeast across the region
Wednesday night with precipitation chances ending from west to
east. Again, there is disagreement in the models as to how fast
this system will depart, but will side a bit closer to the faster
GFS and Canadian solution for now. Precipitation that occurs
Wednesday night will likely be light snow or light sleet due to
deeper cold air associated with the upper low. Temperatures
Wednesday night will be cold with nearly all locations falling
into the 20s. Therefore, any precipitation that falls or remains
on surfaces will have a good chance of freezing.

[Brent]

In other news, after this next system the 12z Euro EPS shows no cold air in North America all the way into mid-January.

Not at all giving up on Wednesday but if it does bust

Lol what happened to this great winter everyone was hyping

[bubba hotep]

In other news, after this next system the 12z Euro EPS shows no cold air in North America all the way into mid-January.

Not at all giving up on Wednesday but if it does bust

Lol what happened to this great winter everyone was hyping

The MJO kind of argues against the warmth but this might be a case of there being a lag because of the complexity of the overall pattern. Maybe we need to be looking more towards GWO analogs?

Anyway, 18z GFS says, "Lol DFW"

[orangeblood]

In other news, after this next system the 12z Euro EPS shows no cold air in North America all the way into mid-January.

Not at all giving up on Wednesday but if it does bust

Lol what happened to this great winter everyone was hyping

1) most of the time you never want to be in the heavy core of modeled systems 3 days out, it can and most of the time will shift back and forth

2)Jan 15 - Mar 1 was always core of most of this winter’s analogs

[Ntxw]

In other news, after this next system the 12z Euro EPS shows no cold air in North America all the way into mid-January.

Not at all giving up on Wednesday but if it does bust

Lol what happened to this great winter everyone was hyping

1) most of the time you never want to be in the heavy core of modeled systems 3 days out, it can and most of the time will shift back and forth

2)Jan 15 - Mar 1 was always core of most of this winter’s analogs

It's been a great winter! We've already seen 4-5 SW (some bowling balls) already. Sure most have been marginal and we've lacked the true cold but most winters we can hardly find even one or two of those kind of lows. Keep teeing up that ball and a HR will happen!

[spencer817]

In other news, after this next system the 12z Euro EPS shows no cold air in North America all the way into mid-January.

Not at all giving up on Wednesday but if it does bust

Lol what happened to this great winter everyone was hyping

The MJO kind of argues against the warmth but this might be a case of there being a lag because of the complexity of the overall pattern. Maybe we need to be looking more towards GWO analogs?

Anyway, 18z GFS says, "Lol DFW"

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018123018/gfs_asnow_scus_16.png

Seems like the classic case of the mesoscale models being many degrees colder than the globals, no? upper 30s on GFS, 30-31 same timeframe on NAM

[bubba hotep]

In other news, after this next system the 12z Euro EPS shows no cold air in North America all the way into mid-January.

Not at all giving up on Wednesday but if it does bust

Lol what happened to this great winter everyone was hyping

1) most of the time you never want to be in the heavy core of modeled systems 3 days out, it can and most of the time will shift back and forth

2)Jan 15 - Mar 1 was always core of most of this winter’s analogs

While, there is pretty good consensus in the NW shift in modeling today, it isn't a huge shift. It really wouldn't take much shifting over the next couple of days to put DFW back in it. Since I've been here (I missed 09/10) it seems like almost every snow (snow fail) was some form of a last second curve ball by the models (both good and bad).

I'm not sure you can pin down mid-Jan using analogs but there was always solid support for the back loaded winter argument.

[foulbeast]

[bubba hotep]

http://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/graphicast/image_full6.jpg?087780d7fe9a689635e7c0ee683ae387

Looks like a solid start to me

[spencer817]

http://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/graphicast/image_full6.jpg?087780d7fe9a689635e7c0ee683ae387

Looks like a solid start to me

FV3 still encouraging as well, a big test for it in the new year!

[orangeblood]

Not at all giving up on Wednesday but if it does bust

Lol what happened to this great winter everyone was hyping

1) most of the time you never want to be in the heavy core of modeled systems 3 days out, it can and most of the time will shift back and forth

2)Jan 15 - Mar 1 was always core of most of this winter’s analogs

While, there is pretty good consensus in the NW shift in modeling today, it isn't a huge shift. It really wouldn't take much shifting over the next couple of days to put DFW back in it. Since I've been here (I missed 09/10) it seems like almost every snow (snow fail) was some form of a last second curve ball by the models (both good and bad).

I'm not sure you can pin down mid-Jan using analogs but there was always solid support for the back loaded winter argument.

Eastern Pacific Rex Block was a common theme in the 2nd half of analogus winters I’ve been researching. Models have been hinting at this over the past several days...the NA ridge is showing signs of retrogression, once it connects with a negative WPO we’re in business

[bubba hotep]

For this evening, the SREF has been pretty tightly clustered the last 24hrs around 3/4" of rain at DFW. Padding the record books as 2nd place opens up a larger lead over 3rd.

[Brent]

Not at all giving up on Wednesday but if it does bust

Lol what happened to this great winter everyone was hyping

1) most of the time you never want to be in the heavy core of modeled systems 3 days out, it can and most of the time will shift back and forth

2)Jan 15 - Mar 1 was always core of most of this winter’s analogs

It's been a great winter! We've already seen 4-5 SW (some bowling balls) already. Sure most have been marginal and we've lacked the true cold but most winters we can hardly find even one or two of those kind of lows. Keep teeing up that ball and a HR will happen!

Cant be great without snow to me but it is only December 30th

[Cerlin]

00z NAM up and running—curious to see if it leans toward Euro and UKMet

[Cpv17]

1) most of the time you never want to be in the heavy core of modeled systems 3 days out, it can and most of the time will shift back and forth

2)Jan 15 - Mar 1 was always core of most of this winter’s analogs

It's been a great winter! We've already seen 4-5 SW (some bowling balls) already. Sure most have been marginal and we've lacked the true cold but most winters we can hardly find even one or two of those kind of lows. Keep teeing up that ball and a HR will happen!

Cant be great without snow to me but it is only December 30th

I’m right there with ya. It just seems like it’s hard to get cold during El Niño’s.

[Ntxw]

It's been a great winter! We've already seen 4-5 SW (some bowling balls) already. Sure most have been marginal and we've lacked the true cold but most winters we can hardly find even one or two of those kind of lows. Keep teeing up that ball and a HR will happen!

Cant be great without snow to me but it is only December 30th

I’m right there with ya. It just seems like it’s hard to get cold during El Niño’s.

It's all about perspective of course. I'm all for snow but I don't judge winters by that. I'm aware it's a fool's game this far south anyway. Cloudy, consistently cool winters is what I want. I have seen enough torches the past 10 years to say no thanks.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Can someone please explain why the NAM 12km is showing snow accumulation in areas where it doesn’t even show frz rain/sleet?

[TheAustinMan]

Can someone please explain why the NAM 12km is showing snow accumulation in areas where it doesn’t even show frz rain/sleet?

That might not be the model's fault, actually, but rather how model sites process and visualize the data. Compare the large snow swath seen on TropicalTidbits' 10:1 map with the lack of any snow swath seen on College of DuPage's 10:1 map from the 12km NAM. Strangely enough, even TropicalTidbits' positive snow-depth change map shows a swath where DuPage has none. AccuWeather's snow accumulation map for the NAM looks similar to the TT snow-depth change map.

[Ralph's Weather]

This is looking like a freezing rain event primarily with some backend snow. The I35 corridor north of Austin through N TX has the highest chance for significant icing. Though if the freeze line can creep eastward there is a lot more moisture in ETX. Over here it will most likely be 35 and heavy rain, but that is very close so temp trends will have to be watched carefully. We still have a couple days of model watching so much can still change. What we know for sure is that it will be cold is and there will be moisture, but the freeze line could stay west of DFW or push through E TX and that will determine what happens.