BOB: PABUK - Post-Tropical

[TyphoonNara]

97W INVEST 181228 0000 9.0N 112.0E WPAC 15 1007

[TyphoonNara]

LPA from JMA

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 08N 112E WEST SLOWLY.

[euro6208]

97W INVEST 181228 1800 7.4N 113.5E WPAC 15 1007

[TyphoonNara]

[Hayabusa]

Will we get 36W or 01W?

[TyphoonNara]

Will we get 36W or 01W?

We only have less than 2 days till the start of 2019. Considering the fact that JTWC has not even upgraded the system to "Low", I highly doubt we can get a 36W. 01W is probable though.

[doomhaMwx]

Both the GFS and ECMWF models are rather insistent that the system will reach Southern Thailand and/or Peninsular Malaysia within the first few days of 2019 as a tropical storm, although it is also possible that these models are underestimating the shear, as with the case of previous systems in this area during this time of the year.

[TyphoonNara]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.2N 113.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 113.7E, APPROXIMATELY 155
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF BRUNEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 301110Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30
KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN
QUASISTATIONARY BEFORE HEADING WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST BEFORE
CONSOLIDATING TO THE SOUTH OF VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[TyphoonNara]

[doomhaMwx]

REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 113.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 114.9E, APPROXIMATELY 215
NM NORTH OF BRUNEI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301417Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A 301310Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS THE ELONGATED SHAPE OF THE CIRCULATION AND SHOWS PRIMARILY 10-15 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND
20-25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY BUT NOT YET WRAPPING IN. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TRACKING WEST AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT AND WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[shah83]

Keep a close eye on this one. If shear doesn't bust it, likely to be a very meaningful storm. The Malaysian peninsula just doesn't get hit with these storms often--only once had a storm hit it with strong winds, but lots of casualties from rainfalls from the few others involved.

[NotoSans]

Will we get 36W or 01W?

The answer is 36W. The next question is whether we would get 1830 or 1901, as JMA has just initiated advisories on the system, expecting it to become a TS within the next 24 hours. The system would likely break the record of either the latest or the earliest genesis in a season.

[doomhaMwx]

Will we get 36W or 01W?

The answer is 36W. The next question is whether we would get 1830 or 1901, as JMA has just initiated advisories on the system, expecting it to become a TS within the next 24 hours. The system would likely break the record of either the latest or the earliest genesis in a season.

36W THIRTYSIX 181231 0600 8.5N 112.6E WPAC 25 1003

Heh it managed to become a TD this last day of 2018.

TD
Issued at 07:15 UTC, 31 December 2018

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 31 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N7°50' (7.8°)
E112°25' (112.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

[TyphoonNara]

It seems we now get the first year-crossing tropical cyclone in 18 years.

The last one was Typhoon Soulik, which formed in 2000 and dissipated in 2001. I do not include Bolaven from this year as it was technically not yet a tropical cyclone (It was an invest) when it crossed from 2017 to 2018.

[doomhaMwx]

First warning

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 310900 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36W (THIRTYSIX)
WARNING NR 001 CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 36W (THIRTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
375 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FLARING
CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED NORTHWESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). FORMATIVE BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK CAN BE
SEEN FEEDING INTO THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS
IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5/25KTS FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS)
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND INTO THE
GULF OF THAILAND ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 28-29 CELSIUS. TD 36W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ON THIS SYSTEM
AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 36W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE GULF OF THAILAND AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND ALLOW A MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO
A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF THAILAND.
C. AFTER TAU 72, VWS WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP. THIS, IN ADDITION TO
LAND INTERACTION AS TD 36W CROSSES THE MALAY PENINSULA AFTER TAU 96
WILL CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING DOWN TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 120. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL
SPREADING TO 250 NM BY TAU 120 WITH HWRF ON THE LEFT AND NAVGEM ON
THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE FORMATIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS INITIAL JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: INCORRECT TROPICAL CYCLONE STORM
NUMBER IDENTIFIER THROUGHOUT THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING.//
NNNN

[TyphoonNara]

Strengthened to 30 kts.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36W (THIRTYSIX)
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 36W (THIRTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
325 NM SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH STRUGGLING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30
KTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES, WHICH IS ABOVE THE RJTD ESTIMATE OF T1.5
(25 KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
HIGH (30-40 KTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH HAS
LED TO WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO COMPENSATE FOR THE HIGH VWS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA AND INTO THE GULF OF THAILAND ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 28-29
CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH, AND TURNED
MORE DRAMATICALLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE PAST 6 HOURS THAN
WAS FORECAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 36W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE GULF OF THAILAND AS THE STR EXTENSION RECEDES TO THE
EAST. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE, AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
REMAIN STRONG. HOWEVER, HIGH VWS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL LIMIT THE
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION, ALLOWING A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A
PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72 BEFORE TD 36W CROSSES THE MALAY PENINSULA.
C. LAND INTERACTION AS TD 36W CROSSES THE MALAY PENINSULA AT TAU
96, AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW ALOFT, WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING TO
30 KTS BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL SPREADING TO OVER 380 NM BY TAU 120, WITH
HWRF AND ECMWF ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE AND NAVGEM ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE COAMPS-
GFS AND COAMPS-NAVGEM MODELS PREDICT HIGHER INTENSITIES, WHILE HWRF
IS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS, AND THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
SHIPS MODELS ARE ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.
//
NNNN

[NotoSans]

WTPQ20 RJTD 010600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1901 PABUK (1901) UPGRADED FROM TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 010600UTC 06.3N 109.9E POOR

MOVE SW 06KT

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT

30KT 180NM

[TyphoonNara]

Named by JMA as "Pabuk"

Now Pabuk is technically the first named storm in 2019 according to JMA.