Texas Winter 2018-2019

[DonWrk]

The CMC coming in cold and wet!!

[Brent]

12z GFS is about 1-1.5" of cold rain for DFW, bigger totals of rain for Central and East Texas. It looks like '19 will get off to a soggy start.

That is a lot of water. Too bad temps can't be 4 degrees colder, man that would be glorious. What a crying shame.

These "almost" setups are getting really irritating

[wxman57]

I guess y’all haven’t seen the latest RGEM

Keeps everything isolated to the west?

That's what I see, too. Keeps all ice west of the D-FW Metroplex. Maybe a little sleet mixed in as precip ends. Meanwhile, sunny and 63 here in Houston.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS is about 1-1.5" of cold rain for DFW, bigger totals of rain for Central and East Texas. It looks like '19 will get off to a soggy start.

That is a lot of water. Too bad temps can't be 4 degrees colder, man that would be glorious. What a crying shame.

These "almost" setups are getting really irritating

Better get used to it. There's another low key signal of another similarish ULL system about 200 hours away. We seem to be sitting in this kind of thing weekly now!

OLR near the dateline (westerlies) is just going to keep rolling these storms in to agitate all of us even more!

[Cerlin]

Now I feel stupid for telling everyone this week was a really good chance at a winter storm.

[Brent]

Now I feel stupid for telling everyone this week was a really good chance at a winter storm.

Nobody gonna believe it when we finally get one...

[HockeyTx82]

So all hope is lost? I'm west of Denton, looks like we are still in the maybe zone, no? Ponder, TX to be exact. Should we expect changes with the next NWS FWD updates?

[Brent]

Euro is basically rain for everybody tomorrow even NW of the metro

Thursday doesn't look much better snow mostly out west and in Oklahoma otherwise

[HockeyTx82]

Euro is basically rain for everybody tomorrow even NW of the metro

Thursday doesn't look much better snow mostly out west and in Oklahoma otherwise

In this range is the Euro high res? Would we be better off looking at the NAM or more high res local or real time?

[Yukon Cornelius]

Pretty chilly New Year’s Day. Currently 27 with a windchill of 18.

[bubba hotep]

Temps are running about 3 degrees cooler across DFW vs what the 12z Euro showed for 18z today. Also, temps are running a tad colder already at +1hr vs the 18z HRRR.

[Shoshana]

Now I feel stupid for telling everyone this week was a really good chance at a winter storm.

Nobody gonna believe it when we finally get one...

Here in Austin, I believe it when I see it!

[spencer817]

Temps are running about 3 degrees cooler across DFW vs what the 12z Euro showed for 18z today. Also, temps are running a tad colder already at +1hr vs the 18z HRRR.

The best winter storms are the surprises lets hope for a miracle

[opticsguy]

12Z NAM had a high of 28 at KOKC. As of 1 PM it was 23

[Haris]

Another big rain event on the way for the Austin region. The 3K NAM has 3.4” . GfS has 2.2” . Just after the 3 inches last week.

December ended with nearly 6” in the Austin area. January is starting wet too it seems.

[orangeblood]

12Z NAM had a high of 28 at KOKC. As of 1 PM it was 23

Yep, every single model is overestimating temps by some 4-8 deg F....could have big implications for forecasts, stay closely tuned to your NWS office

[stormlover2013]

Usually winter weather always surprises, tomorrow could be a surprise

[SouthernMet]

18z NAM initializing way too warm, it thinks it’s 29 currently in OKC when in reality it’s 22-23, it’s too warm in Amarillo, 6 degrees too warm in Wichita Falls, 5 degrees too warm in Abilene. This could make all the difference on whether we see ice accumulate or not here in Fort Worth. Maybe it’s time to start paying attention to the RGEM/CMC... Stay tuned

[bubba hotep]

18z 12k NAM looks wetter for just about everyone but also pretty warm. Even in places in NW Texas and Oklahoma that are showing as snow, surface temps are very marginal, like 32-34 with only small pockets of subfreezing surface air.

[utpmg]

Shoot, I'm going to Big Bend tomorrow, via Seminole Canyon, from Austin. Pretty sure I'll be south of this but I got friends going on I10 and from DFW on I20 later. Looks like that's gonna be where the fun stuff is most likely to be, so to speak.